New York, Feb 12, 2026, 08:29 (ET) — Premarket
- After surging on earnings, the stock barely budged in early Thursday trading.
- Fresh guidance for 2026 now hinges on demand from data centers, while home generator sales remain closely linked to outage trends.
- Traders have their eyes on data-center backlogs, with follow-on analyst calls also on the radar.
Shares of Generac Holdings Inc moved up around 0.5% to $216 ahead of Thursday’s open, after rallying 17.9% and finishing Wednesday at $214.99. Guggenheim pulled its rating down to “neutral” from “buy,” setting a price target at $202, according to MarketScreener. 1
The stock’s jump has shifted attention to the next question: can Generac sustain its growth if storm-driven demand fades? Lately, the company has been pushing further into bigger backup power systems for commercial and industrial clients—think data centers—though its main residential segment remains tied to outage trends.
This shift is significant at the moment; recent quarters have unfolded against a backdrop of fewer outages, with investors searching for something more reliable. Data-center demand could be that steady force—if it persists.
Generac reported a 12% drop in fourth-quarter net sales, coming in at $1.09 billion, and swung to a net loss of $24 million thanks to a $104.5 million provision linked to a legal settlement. Adjusted earnings landed at $1.61 per share. Residential product sales tumbled roughly 23% to $572 million, but commercial and industrial revenue climbed about 10% to $400 million. Looking ahead, Generac introduced 2026 targets: mid-teens net sales growth, adjusted EBITDA margin between 18% and 19% (adjusted EBITDA stands for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization). The board signed off on a fresh $500 million share buyback program running for the next two years. CEO Aaron Jagdfeld pointed to accelerating momentum in the company’s data center end market. 2
Analysts polled by LSEG were expecting adjusted earnings of $1.77 a share on revenue of $1.16 billion. Generac has cited a drop in power outages for lighter shipments in its home standby and portable generator business. Inflation, the company says, has also led some consumers to hold off on major energy purchases. 3
Now, it’s all about how well Generac can execute. The company is pushing into “megawatt” generator products aimed at data centers, a market already packed with big-name engine and generator rivals. The challenge: keep margins intact as they grapple with early-stage expenses and supply-chain pressure.
Weather poses a straightforward risk here. If outages remain below what the company has baked into its baseline, that residential recovery penciled in for 2026 could easily falter. Data-center deals, for their part, tend to arrive in clumps—dependent on when projects hit and customers clear qualification hurdles.
During Wednesday’s earnings call, management reported the data-center product backlog had reached roughly $400 million, with most orders likely shipping in 2026. Jagdfeld told analysts that figure didn’t include any significant hyperscale business as of the quarter’s end. The company is currently running pilot programs with two hyperscale customers—described as the largest cloud operators—and said more information is coming at an investor day set for March 25. 4
