Key takeaways
- DAX hovers near 24,000, trimming early declines; TecDAX edges up while MDAX slips. [1]
- Zalando jumps after a Q3 sales beat and a new DFB (German FA) partnership; DHL Group tops profit forecasts; Commerzbank falls on a tax-driven profit drop. [2]
- EU antitrust watchdog opens a probe into Deutsche Börse and Nasdaq over alleged coordination in derivatives—Deutsche Börse shares under pressure. [3]
- Germany’s September industrial production rose +1.3% m/m, but missed expectations, tempering sentiment; Bund 10‑year yields hover ~2.67%. [4]
Market at a glance (midday Frankfurt)
- DAX 40: recovered from an early dip and hovered near 24,030, roughly –0.1% around early afternoon as traders absorbed a heavy earnings docket. Intraday ranges clustered just above and below the 24k mark. [5]
- TecDAX: +0.2% around 3,570, outperforming on strength in select tech/health names. [6]
- MDAX: –0.6% near 29,200, lagging on banks and mid‑cap cyclicals. [7]
- Rates: Germany’s 10‑year Bund yield ~2.67% as traders digested softer‑than‑expected output data. [8]
- Backdrop: Europe traded mixed amid nerves around valuations and macro prints, even as Wall Street strength earlier in the week set a constructive tone. [9]
Note: Levels are intraday and may change by the close.
Macro driver: A softer rebound in industry
Fresh from Destatis, industrial production for September rose +1.3% m/m, short of consensus (after a sharp drop in August). Automotive output rebounded, but broader three‑month momentum remains negative, reinforcing a “bumpy bottoming” narrative for German manufacturing. Stocks reacted with cautious relief rather than celebration. [10]
Big movers in the DAX
Surge: Zalando (+6–10% intraday)
- What happened: Q3 revenue +26.5% to €3.02bn, with GMV +21.6% (or +6.7% pro‑forma), helped by the About You acquisition. The company also unveiled a five‑year partnership with the German Football Association (DFB). [11]
- Why it matters: A cleaner top‑line trajectory and sportswear push lifted sentiment; analysts flagged sales upside even as EBIT was broadly in line. [12]
Strength: DHL Group (Deutsche Post) (+4–6% intraday)
- What happened: EBIT €1.5bn in Q3, above the ~€1.28bn consensus, despite a –2.3% revenue dip; guidance maintained. Management highlighted structural cost gains and pricing. [13]
- Why it matters: Solid execution amid freight softness and trade frictions; investors also noted robust free cash flow trends in the company materials. [14]
Weakness: Commerzbank (–2% to –3%)
- What happened: Q3 net profit €591m (–7.9% y/y), below expectations, as the tax rate jumped to 36% and costs rose. The bank lifted its 2025 net‑interest‑income outlook to €8.2bn and applied for a share buyback up to €600m, but shares fell on the miss. [15]
- Stock move: Commerzbank traded lower; the stock was among the morning’s notable laggards in Frankfurt. [16]
Under pressure: Deutsche Börse (–3% to –4%)
- What happened: The European Commission opened a cartel probe into Deutsche Börse and Nasdaq regarding alleged coordination in the derivatives space (listing, trading, and clearing). Shares fell on the headline. [17]
- Stock move: Deutsche Börse ranked as a DAX underperformer, down roughly –3.8% at midday. [18]
Cross‑currents shaping sentiment
- European equities: Region‑wide indices slipped earlier on valuation jitters and mixed earnings prints; Germany largely tracked the broader drift before paring losses. [19]
- Regulation: Separately, BaFin imposed a record fine (~$52m) on JPMorgan over reporting lapses—adding to a busy regulatory tape that markets are monitoring for knock‑on effects. [20]
- Bonds: The modest bid for Bunds after the output miss kept yields in check near 2.67%, cushioning equity multiples. [21]
Sector snapshot
- E‑commerce & consumer: Zalando led DAX gainers on growth re‑acceleration. [22]
- Logistics: DHL Group outperformed on earnings quality and guidance stickiness. [23]
- Banks & exchanges: Commerzbank slipped on tax‑driven profits; Deutsche Börse fell on the EU probe. [24]
- Tech/health: Broader TecDAX up modestly, aided by selective strength; yesterday’s Siemens Healthineers numbers (slight sales miss) remained a talking point. [25]
What to watch next
- Earnings calendar: Infineon reports next week (Nov 12), followed by Siemens AG (Nov 13)—both potential catalysts for DAX sentiment. [26]
- Macro: Follow‑through from today’s industrial production data and upcoming euro‑area prints for confirmation of a cyclical turn—or lack thereof. [27]
How Germany's DAX outperformed its peers to become the new market darling
References
1. www.finanzen.at, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.morningstar.com, 4. www.destatis.de, 5. www.finanzen.at, 6. www.finanzen.at, 7. www.finanzen.ch, 8. www.onvista.de, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.destatis.de, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.tradingview.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. group.dhl.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.finanzen.ch, 17. www.morningstar.com, 18. www.finanzen.ch, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.onvista.de, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.finanzen.at, 26. www.infineon.com, 27. www.destatis.de
