Glencore (LON: GLEN) Share Price Outlook December 2025: Copper Pivot, Job Cuts, Buybacks and Cobalt Catalysts

Glencore plc’s stock has jolted back to life in December 2025 as the commodities giant lays out an aggressive pivot towards copper, sharp cost cuts and fresh capital returns — all while navigating labour disputes, climate scrutiny and new rules in key battery‑metal markets.

As of the morning of 11 December 2025, Glencore’s London‑listed shares were trading around 383.9p, near the upper end of their 2025 range and up sharply since the start of the month. ^[1]

This article pulls together the most recent news, forecasts and analyst commentary as of 11 December 2025 to outline where Glencore stock stands now and what could drive it next.

Glencore share price in December 2025

Glencore’s share price has staged a notable rebound into year‑end:

On 11 December 2025, Glencore traded at about 383.9p on the London Stock Exchange. ^[2]
In 2025 so far, the stock has traded roughly between 357p and 392p, placing the current level close to the top of this year’s range. ^[3]
FTSE Russell data show the shares are up around the mid‑single digits year‑to‑date and roughly 57% over five years, though they have lagged the broader FTSE 350 in 2025. ^[4]

The big move came on 3 December 2025, when Glencore held its first Capital Markets Day since 2022. The stock jumped more than 6% in a single session as investors digested its new copper‑heavy growth plan and restructuring programme, and it has climbed about 5–6% over the past week. ^[5]

For U.S. investors, Glencore’s OTC‑traded ADR (GLNCY) recently changed hands at about $10.2, close to its 52‑week high of $10.28 and well above the low near $5.74. ^[6]

Capital Markets Day 2025: Copper takes centre stage

At its Capital Markets Day in London on 3 December, Glencore made clear that copper is now the core of its long‑term equity story.

Key elements of the new plan include:

A pathway for copper production to exceed 1 million tonnes per year by the end of 2028, and to reach around 1.6 million tonnes by 2035. ^[7]
Expected 4% compound annual growth in copper‑equivalent production between 2026 and 2029, with copper volumes alone growing about 9.4% a year over that period. ^[8]
A restart of the Alumbrera copper‑gold mine in Argentina: development from late 2026, first production targeted in the first half of 2028, and an expected total of roughly 75,000 tonnes of copper, 317,000 ounces of gold and 1,000 tonnes of molybdenum over four years. ^[9]

In the near term, the story is more complicated. Glencore cut its 2026 copper guidance to 810,000–870,000 tonnes, down from a previous 930,000‑tonne target, citing operational issues at the Collahuasi joint venture in Chile and other assets. ^[10]

Management expects to spend around $6.5 billion a year in capex through 2028, potentially rising by up to $1–1.7 billion annually if it goes ahead with additional copper growth options. It has also signalled a willingness to bring in partners on some projects to share financial and operational risk. ^[11]

This copper push is timed with strong fundamentals: benchmark prices have hit record levels above $11,400 per tonne in 2025, up roughly 30% year‑to‑date thanks to supply disruptions and demand tied to electrification and grid investment. ^[12]

Analysts have responded quickly. Freedom Capital Markets upgraded Glencore’s U.S. ADR from Hold to Buy on 11 December, lifting its price target to $13.90—around 36% above the current GLNCY price—and citing the strengthened copper growth profile and a constructive view on copper prices. ^[13]

Restructuring, job cuts and labour flashpoints

The copper plan is intertwined with a sweeping overhaul of Glencore’s industrial footprint.

Alongside Capital Markets Day, Glencore unveiled a new devolved operating structure that will:

Eliminate about 1,000 roles globally.
Merge its nickel and zinc divisions and streamline head office functions.
Target roughly $1 billion in recurring cost savings by the end of 2026. ^[14]

Coverage in the Financial Times and The Times suggests this is part of a broader plan to sell or shut around 35 assets over four years, including smelters in South Africa, and to redeploy capital toward higher‑return copper projects. ^[15]

Some recent local impacts:

At the Murrin Murrin nickel and cobalt operation in Western Australia, Glencore has started laying off workers despite the mine being a key source of Australian cobalt. The site was loss‑making in early 2025, but the company says it has no plan to close it for now. ^[16]
In North Queensland, Glencore secured a A$600 million government support package in October to keep its Mount Isa copper smelter and associated refinery running for three more years. ^[17]
Soon after, unions including the Australian Workers Union and Electrical Trades Union accused the group of “bad faith” bargaining at the Townsville refinery, arguing that proposed pay rises of 6.9%–10.4% over four years, tied to individual performance, lag cost‑of‑living pressures. Union members have authorised moves toward protected industrial action. ^[18]

For investors, these moves matter in two ways:

They underpin Glencore’s cost‑saving story after several years of operational underperformance. ^[19]
They introduce operational and reputational risk if strikes, community backlash or political scrutiny escalate, particularly in Australia and Africa.

Cobalt, smelters and the evolving battery‑metals footprint

Glencore is also in the headlines for battery metals, especially cobalt.

First cobalt exports under Congo’s new quota system

After months of export disruption in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Glencore has become the first company to ship cobalt under the country’s new export quota regime:

Congo now requires a 10% royalty and stricter compliance checks for cobalt exports, with a Q4 2025 quota of 18,125 tonnes and annual exports capped at 96,600 tonnes from 2026. ^[20]
Glencore and CMOC have been allocated the largest quotas under the scheme, with Glencore receiving around 3,925 tonnes for Q4. ^[21]
Cobalt prices have more than doubled from about $10 to $24 per pound this year, reflecting tight supply and EV‑battery demand. ^[22]

The successful pilot shipment is a positive step for Glencore’s cobalt revenue and for global EV supply chains, but the new quota system still introduces regulatory complexity and potential delays.

Smelting shifts: Chile expansion, Canadian contraction

On the copper side, Glencore is moving capacity around the globe:

In Chile, state‑owned Codelco has selected Glencore as its strategic partner to design and potentially build a major new copper smelter. A pre‑feasibility study is under way, with the aim of finalising agreements by mid‑2026, starting construction around 2030 and beginning operations between 2032 and 2033. ^[23]
By contrast, Glencore is preparing to shut the Horne smelter in Canada, the country’s largest copper‑metal operation, citing high costs and environmental compliance challenges. ^[24]

Separately, Glencore’s Aster joint venture with Chandra Asri has earmarked about $155 million to expand output at the Bukom refinery, reinforcing Glencore’s integrated position in refining and trading. ^[25]

Buybacks, dividends and balance‑sheet trends

Despite profit pressure, Glencore remains an aggressive cash‑return story.

Share buy‑back programmes

In February 2025, Glencore announced a new share buyback of up to $1 billion, on top of its regular distributions. ^[26]

This sits alongside a broader 2025–2026 buyback programme, authorised at the 2025 AGM, allowing the purchase of up to 1.8 billion shares. The programme formally launched on 7 July 2025 and is intended to run through to the group’s full‑year results in February 2026. ^[27]

Recent transactions include:

7.2 million shares purchased from UBS on 28 November, announced on 1 December. ^[28]
6.4 million shares bought on 5 December, announced on 8 December. ^[29]

After these operations and earlier cancellations, Glencore has roughly 11.76 billion shares in issue, sharpening the impact of future distributions on per‑share metrics. ^[30]

Dividend and distribution policy

Glencore’s current distribution framework has two parts:

A fixed $1 billion base distribution each year.
A variable top‑up equal to 25% of adjusted equity free cash flow from its industrial assets. ^[31]

For the 2024 financial year, the board recommended an aggregate $0.10 per share distribution, paid in two equal tranches of $0.05 in the first and second halves of 2025. ^[32]

In total, Glencore expects 2025 shareholder returns of around $3.2 billion, combining dividends and buybacks. ^[33]

Earnings and leverage

For 2024, Glencore reported adjusted EBITDA of about $14.4 billion, down 16% year‑on‑year, with profits at a four‑year low as coal prices fell and some coal assets were written down. ^[34]
In H1 2025, adjusted core profit fell another 14% year‑on‑year to $5.43 billion, reflecting weaker coal prices and lower copper volumes. Net debt sat around $14.5 billion, influenced by heavy capex and the acquisition of Teck’s Elk Valley Resources coal business. ^[35]

Glencore has nonetheless stuck with its capital‑return plans and a $1 billion cost‑saving target by 2026, betting that higher copper and cobalt prices plus efficiency gains will offset weaker coal margins over time. ^[36]

How is the market valuing Glencore now?

Recent analyses give a mixed but generally constructive picture.

Morningstar continues to carry a fair value estimate of 460p for Glencore, implying roughly 20% upside from the current 380‑ish pence share price and describing the stock as undervalued. ^[37]
A Simply Wall St update on 10 December notes that Glencore shares have risen 5.6% over the last week, 6.4% over the past month and 4.9% year‑to‑date, but remain down over a three‑year horizon. On its discounted cash‑flow model, the stock screens as about 4% above intrinsic value—slightly overvalued—but its price‑to‑sales ratio of ~0.26x is far below both sector and peer averages, suggesting undervaluation on revenue metrics. ^[38]
A fresh Simply Wall St note on 11 December, titled “Glencore (LSE:GLEN): Rethinking Valuation After a 27% Three‑Month Share Price Rebound”, frames the shares as fairly valued overall after the recent rally, with future returns hinging on how investors model copper, coal and capital returns over the next decade. ^[39]
A November article from The Motley Fool UK argued that after roughly a 70% rebound from the lows, Glencore’s share price could still climb if copper demand stays strong, but highlighted the stock’s volatility and ESG risks as reasons for caution. ^[40]
The latest Freedom Capital Markets note, as mentioned, sees potential 36% upside on the ADR, leaning heavily on the copper growth plan and record‑high copper prices. ^[41]

Separately, some commentators on platforms like Seeking Alpha and Forbes emphasise Glencore’s role in a possible new wave of mega mining M&A, noting rumours around combinations with Rio Tinto and the implications of the Anglo‑Teck merger for jointly owned assets like Collahuasi. ^[42]

Taken together, the consensus is drifting toward “fair value with upside optionality”: Glencore is no longer obviously cheap after its autumn rally, but copper‑driven growth, buybacks and any M&A or listing changes could still unlock further value.

ESG, climate and methane: the uncomfortable trade‑off

Glencore remains one of the most controversial names in global mining.

On paper, its 2024–2026 Climate Action Transition Plan commits to:

Achieving net‑zero emissions by 2050 (subject to supportive policy).
A “responsible phase‑down” of thermal coal, with no new greenfield thermal coal projects.
Running down its coal portfolio by the mid‑2040s, including closing at least 12 mines by 2035. ^[43]

However, independent assessments are far more critical:

Research from the Australasian Centre for Corporate Responsibility (ACCR) suggests Glencore’s coal production could actually rise about 3% between 2023 and 2030, once the Teck EVR acquisition is included, and concludes that the plan has stepped back from earlier Paris‑aligned commitments. ^[44]
The Coal Exit database notes that Glencore produced about 99.6 Mt of thermal coal and 19.9 Mt of metallurgical coal in 2024, arguing that the company has “no intention” of phasing out coal after dropping its coal production cap. ^[45]
A 2025 report from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) flags methane emissions from Glencore’s coal operations as an under‑appreciated risk for investors, both in terms of climate impact and future regulation. ^[46]

At the same time, the Transition Pathway Initiative ranks Glencore at Management Quality Level 4, indicating relatively sophisticated governance and disclosure on climate compared with many peers, even if its absolute emissions path is disputed. ^[47]

This leaves Glencore in a paradoxical position:

It is a major supplier of transition metals such as copper and cobalt, central to electric vehicles and renewable infrastructure. ^[48]
It is also one of the largest listed thermal‑coal producers in the world, with heightened exposure to climate policy and investor activism. ^[49]

For ESG‑conscious investors, this tension is likely to remain a defining feature of the Glencore investment case.

Key opportunities and risks for Glencore stock

Putting the latest news together, the main bullish drivers for Glencore shares into 2026 include:

Copper growth and pricing: If copper prices remain elevated and Glencore delivers on its 2028 and 2035 volume targets, earnings could become much more levered to a structurally tight metal. ^[50]
Battery‑metal exposure: Higher cobalt prices and the resumption of exports from Congo add a supportive backdrop for Glencore’s cobalt business. ^[51]
Capital returns: Ongoing buybacks and distributions concentrate value for remaining shareholders, especially if cost‑saving measures lift margins. ^[52]
M&A and portfolio reshaping: Asset sales, potential bids for third‑party coal operations and Glencore’s central role in large copper JVs create optionality that could narrow any valuation discount. ^[53]

But the risks are equally clear:

Execution risk: Hitting ambitious copper targets requires resolving existing operational issues (Collahuasi, DRC, Canada) and delivering complex brownfield expansions on budget and on time. ^[54]
Labour and community risk: Job cuts, wage disputes and potential strikes in Australia and elsewhere could disrupt operations or erode Glencore’s social licence to operate. ^[55]
Climate and policy risk: Heavy exposure to coal, methane emissions and regulatory scrutiny may weigh on valuation multiples, particularly if climate policy tightens faster than Glencore’s planned coal phase‑down. ^[56]
Commodity cycle risk: Much of the bullish case depends on copper and cobalt staying tight. A downturn in prices or global growth would hit earnings and could force a rethink of capex plans and buybacks. ^[57]

Bottom line

As of 11 December 2025, Glencore’s share price is riding a renewed wave of optimism driven by its copper‑centric strategy, cost‑cutting drive and generous capital‑return programme. The latest analyst work ranges from “fair value with upside” to outright bullish, particularly on the back of copper. ^[58]

Yet the stock remains tightly bound to the commodity cycle, operational execution and ESG headwinds. For investors, Glencore has become a concentrated bet that the cash from coal and trading today can be successfully transformed into a leading position in copper and battery metals tomorrow — without being derailed by climate policy or social pushback along the way.