LONDON, July 15, 2026, 10:06 BST
- Glencore’s Congo mines made up 27,400 tonnes of the company’s first-quarter copper increase, or 86.4% of the year-on-year gain.
- Congo’s mining sector will hold an emergency forum July 15–17 to discuss a bill that could change over 40 sections of the mining code.
- Glencore slipped 0.3% to 528.60 pence by 10:01 BST. The drop was less than two other copper stocks in London.
Glencore’s first-quarter copper jump was almost entirely driven by its two mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Kamoto Copper Company and Mutanda delivered 27,400 tonnes out of the company’s 31,700-tonne year-on-year growth, or 86.4%, according to company data. That concentration puts Glencore’s production at risk if there’s a new dispute over mining laws in Kinshasa.
Congo’s Chamber of Mines is holding an emergency three-day forum from Wednesday, calling the talks after a draft bill was introduced to change over 40 parts of the 2018 mining code. The proposed law would give the state more control over strategic minerals, let the government suspend permits, fine companies up to $1 million, and impose prison sentences as long as 20 years. “The speed with which the revision process appears to be unfolding raises fears that mining operators may not be sufficiently involved,” the chamber warned. Reuters
The policy fight comes after a tax dispute. Congolese authorities closed Glencore’s offices last week. The company said Monday it’s talking with officials and denied any wrongdoing. Cabinet minutes published after the raid showed President Félix Tshisekedi telling agencies to use force only as a last resort. He said mining needs a “stable legal environment, predictable administrative decisions and permanent dialogue”. The presidency didn’t say if the order was connected to Glencore. Reuters
The production bridge makes clear investors shouldn’t read the headline 19% copper rise as a widespread gain. Each contribution below is measured off Glencore’s group increase of 31,700 tonnes.
| Q1 copper driver | Change from Q1 2025 | Share of group increase |
|---|---|---|
| Glencore total | up 31.7 kt | 100.0% |
| African copper: KCC and Mutanda | up 27.4 kt | 86.4% |
| Antamina | up 13.5 kt | 42.6% |
| Mount Isa mine closure | down 8.9 kt | -28.1% |
Glencore’s percentages come from its own reported tonnage. The rest is from other asset moves.
Congo was already a big part of Glencore’s numbers before the first-quarter spike. KCC and Mutanda together turned out 247,800 tonnes in 2025, making up 29.1% of Glencore’s total 851,600 tonnes. The current mix points to a conscious move: with Congo’s cobalt export quotas in place, the mines shifted focus to copper production while they had enough finished cobalt inventory to cover short-term quota needs.
Glencore slipped 0.3% on Wednesday morning in London, as of 10:01 BST. That was a smaller drop than Anglo American plc (LON:AAL) and Antofagasta plc (LON:ANTO), with no clear company news moving the shares.
| London-listed miner | Price, pence | Day move |
|---|---|---|
| Glencore plc LON:GLEN | 528.60 | down 0.30% |
| Anglo American plc (LON:AAL) | 3,639.00 | off 0.84% |
| Antofagasta plc (LON:ANTO) | 3,778.00 | fell 1.69% |
Prices as of 10:01 BST.
The resilience alone doesn’t mean investors have factored in all the Congo risk. Early swings might just track metals, currencies or flows into the index. But the spread shows the market was seeing the dispute more as a policy issue than as a threat to operations.
Glencore has a possible cushion, but it isn’t locked in. Back in February, a U.S.-backed group led by Orion agreed in principle to pay for 40% of Glencore’s stakes in KCC and Mutanda. The deal values the operations at about $9 billion including debt. Glencore would keep operating the assets. CEO Gary Nagle called the consortium “the only major Western producer of copper and cobalt in the DRC.” glencore.com
Glencore thinks its second-half ramp could bring some relief. The group projects 48% of its 2026 copper output in the first half, 52% in the back half, helped by better ore and water at Collahuasi in Chile. CEO Nagle said “full year 2026 production guidance remains unchanged” at 810,000 to 870,000 tonnes. If Collahuasi slips, though, or if Congo’s rules or taxes stay tough, most of the rebound still falls to the same two African operations. glencore.com
The next milestones hit soon. The industry forum is set until July 17. Glencore’s half-year output is due July 29 and it reports earnings August 5. Investors are watching to see if Congo remains the top source for extra copper and if the Orion deal moves from MOU to binding terms.
