As of 5 December 2025, Glencore plc (LON: GLEN) is trading close to the upper end of its 52‑week range, with the share price hovering around 383p after a powerful rally through the autumn. Over the last two weeks the stock has risen about 9–10%, and has logged double‑digit gains over the past quarter, even though the one‑year performance is still slightly negative. [1]
At the same time, Glencore has laid out an aggressive copper growth strategy, launched a fresh US$1bn share buyback, agreed a major copper smelter project in Chile, and confirmed the restart of its Alumbrera mine in Argentina. [2]
Below is a detailed look at the latest Glencore share price context, news, forecasts and analyses as of 5 December 2025.
Glencore share price today: momentum after a tough year
Recent price data from London shows Glencore closing at about 382.9p on 4 December 2025, after touching an intraday high near 386.6p. That places the stock near the top of a 52‑week band of roughly 205p–397p. [3]
Short‑term momentum has clearly turned:
- The share price is up in 7 of the last 10 sessions, rising nearly 9.7% over the past two weeks. [4]
- Third‑party analytics show a +28% gain over the last quarter, even though the one‑year performance is still about –4%. [5]
- Commentators note moves of roughly +25% over three months and around +50% over six months, as the market re‑prices Glencore’s copper exposure and buyback story after a long slump. [6]
Despite this rally, valuation remains moderate by mining‑sector standards. Consensus target prices cluster only slightly above today’s levels (more on that below), suggesting the market is still cautious about earnings quality, coal exposure and political risk.
Capital Markets Day 2025: doubling down on copper
Glencore’s 2025 Capital Markets Day, held on 3 December 2025, is the key strategic event behind the latest leg higher in the share price. In Baar, CEO Gary Nagle set out an explicitly copper‑centric growth plan: [7]
- A “clear pathway” for base copper production to exceed 1 million tonnes per year by 2028, primarily from brownfield expansions.
- A target of around 1.6 million tonnes by 2035, which would make Glencore one of the largest copper producers globally.
- Overall copper‑equivalent production growth of about 4% per year from 2026 to 2029, with copper itself growing roughly 9.4% annually over that period.
- Confirmation of the restart of the Alumbrera copper‑gold operation in Argentina, with first production targeted in 2028.
The company emphasised that most of the copper growth pipeline is brownfield (expansions of existing sites), which is generally cheaper and less risky than building completely new mines. Management also highlighted cumulative US$25.3bn of shareholder returns over the last five years, positioning copper as the engine for the “next chapter” of cash generation and buybacks. [8]
Unsurprisingly, Nasdaq reported GLEN shares jumping nearly 6% on the day of the Capital Markets Day, trading around 381p as investors responded to the growth message and Alumbrera restart news. [9]
Operations update: from weak Q1 to strong Q3
Operationally, 2025 has been a tale of two halves for Glencore’s base metals.
Early‑year stumble
In April, Glencore reported a 30% year‑on‑year drop in Q1 copper production to 167,900 tonnes, blaming mine sequencing and lower grades. The company nevertheless kept full‑year 2025 copper guidance at 850,000–910,000 tonnes and signalled that its marketing division would earn profits around the middle of its long‑term US$2.2–3.2bn EBIT range. [10]
The weak Q1 contributed to heavy share price underperformance earlier in the year and fed the narrative that Glencore was struggling to deliver on its energy‑transition metals pitch.
Q3 recovery and tightened guidance
By Q3 2025, the tone had shifted. In its production report on 29 October, Glencore highlighted: [11]
- Own‑sourced copper production up 36% quarter‑on‑quarter in Q3, driven by stronger output at KCC in the DRC (+66%), Mutanda (+60%), Antamina (+52%) and Antapaccay (+66%).
- Year‑to‑date copper volumes still 17% below 2024, mainly due to earlier planned sequencing, but
- Steelmaking coal volumes more than doubled year‑on‑year, largely from integrating the Elk Valley Resources (EVR) acquisition.
- Energy coal production broadly flat, with stronger Australian volumes offsetting voluntary cuts at the Cerrejón mine in Colombia.
With just one quarter left, Glencore tightened 2025 copper guidance to 850–875kt, signalling confidence in its recovery trajectory even after a bad first quarter. [12]
For investors, the message is: the copper operational issues look cyclical and fixable rather than structural, but the full‑year numbers will still reflect that early‑year hit.
New Chilean smelter JV with Codelco: strategic downstream bet
The most headline‑grabbing news this week is Glencore’s agreement with Chilean state copper giant Codelco to develop a new smelter in the Antofagasta region. [13]
Key points from the preliminary deal:
- Glencore would build and operate a smelter capable of processing 1.5 million tonnes of copper concentrate per year.
- Codelco would supply up to 800,000 tonnes annually for at least ten years.
- The project’s estimated cost is US$1.5–2bn, with a pre‑feasibility study now underway and a final agreement targeted for H1 2026.
- If approved, construction would begin around 2030, with operations starting between 2032 and 2033.
The backdrop here is critical: global smelting capacity is tight, and Chile wants to process more of its concentrates at home rather than shipping them to smelters in China. Record‑low treatment charges (the fees smelters earn to process concentrate) have squeezed margins and triggered an industry‑wide rethink of smelting economics. [14]
For Glencore shareholders, the Chilean smelter is:
- A long‑dated but strategic copper infrastructure play,
- A way to deepen ties with Codelco, and
- Yet another capital‑intensive project that will compete for dollars with buybacks and dividends.
Alumbrera restart and Argentina’s RIGI regime
Alongside the Capital Markets Day, Glencore formally confirmed plans to restart the Alumbrera copper‑gold mine in northern Argentina, which has been inactive since 2018. [15]
According to company guidance and news reports:
- Alumbrera is expected to restart in Q4 2026, with first production in H1 2028. [16]
- Once ramped up, the mine is projected to produce around 75,000 tonnes of copper, 317,000 ounces of gold, and 1,000 tonnes of molybdenum over roughly four years of operations. [17]
- The restart is tied closely to the MARA project (Minera Agua Rica–Alumbrera), using existing infrastructure and workforce to de‑risk that larger development. [18]
Argentina’s new Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI), which offers tax breaks and regulatory stability, is a major factor in the decision to re‑invest in Alumbrera. [19]
From an equity‑story perspective, Alumbrera is a neat microcosm of Glencore’s approach: short‑lived but high‑return copper projects that support a bigger long‑term copper portfolio, with political and fiscal risk as the trade‑off.
Coal consolidation and mega‑merger chatter
Glencore may be leaning into copper, but coal is still a huge part of its earnings power.
In May 2025, Glencore reorganised its coal business, shifting its newly acquired Canadian steelmaking coal assets from Teck Resources into a single unit managed out of Australia. [20]
Key facts:
- Glencore bought Teck’s steelmaking coal business (EVR) for US$6.9bn in 2024. [21]
- The group produced 99.6 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2024, making it one of the world’s largest exporters. [22]
- Despite walking back a formal coal spin‑off after majority investor opposition, management completed the structural consolidation anyway, placing coal assets in Canada, South Africa, Colombia and Australia under Glencore’s Australian entity. [23]
A detailed analysis by Mining.com estimates that about US$22bn of assets have been shifted into the Australian subsidiary, doubling its asset base and potentially making it a more attractive platform for a future mega‑merger with another mining major. [24]
For shareholders, that raises two possibilities:
- Short term: a streamlined coal business that’s easier to manage and possibly valued more highly by investors focused on Australian mining names.
- Long term: optionality around a transformational merger or de‑merger if market appetite for coal changes.
Listing drama: staying in London
In 2025 Glencore also flirted with the idea of abandoning London for a US listing, tapping into a broader debate about the London Stock Exchange’s competitiveness.
After a formal review, the company announced in August 2025 that it would keep its primary listing in London, arguing that a move to New York would not deliver enough incremental value for shareholders. [25]
The Guardian reports that Glencore simultaneously disclosed a first‑half 2025 net loss of about US$655m, nearly triple the prior year’s loss, driven by weaker coal prices, copper production issues and tariff‑related trading volatility. Management responded with a US$1bn cost‑cutting programme to shore up profitability. [26]
For index‑tracking investors, the decision means Glencore remains a core FTSE 100 constituent, and UK funds are spared the forced‑selling that might have accompanied a domicile or primary‑listing shift.
Share buybacks, dividends and capital allocation
One of the biggest drivers of the share price rerating in late 2025 is Glencore’s multi‑stage US$1bn+ share buyback spree.
2025 buyback timeline
Official prospectuses and announcements outline the sequence: [27]
- February 2025: Glencore announces a US$1bn buyback and a US$0.10 per share distribution, with the initial programme intended to be completed by its August 2025 interim results.
- July 2025: After closing the sale of its Viterra stake to Bunge, Glencore launches a new US$1bn buyback programme, to be completed by the release of full‑year 2025 results in February 2026.
- UBS is mandated to execute daily purchases on multiple venues under strict market‑abuse rules, according to regulatory filings tracked by financial media. TS2 Tech+1
Third‑party analysis suggests the 2025 buybacks could retire roughly 10–15% of the free float, assuming they are completed near current prices. [28]
Dividends and yield
On the income side:
- Morningstar data shows a trailing dividend yield around 2.1% on the current share price. [29]
- Forecasts from retail research platforms point to a forward yield of about 2.1% for 2025, rising to roughly 2.8% for 2026 if current payout plans and earnings expectations hold. [30]
Combined with buybacks, this puts Glencore firmly in the “total‑return” camp: modest but growing cash dividends plus aggressive repurchases funded by disposals (like Viterra and partial Century Aluminum selldowns) and operating cash flow. TS2 Tech+1
Capital allocation debate
Not everyone is impressed. One detailed November analysis notes that Glencore’s weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is estimated at roughly 7.1%, while its recent return on invested capital (ROIC) sits nearer 3.8%, implying the company has not consistently been earning its cost of capital. TS2 Tech
That raises a key strategic question: are buybacks the best use of capital when smelting upgrades, battery‑recycling ventures and new mines all need funding? Bulls argue the shares still trade at a discount to intrinsic value, making buybacks highly accretive; sceptics worry about under‑earning assets being propped up by financial engineering.
Smelters, ESG risk and the Horne controversy
Glencore’s downstream footprint has also come under scrutiny, particularly its smelting operations.
A November round‑up of Glencore news highlighted reports that the company was considering closing its Horne copper smelter and associated Canadian Copper Refinery (CCR) in Quebec, sites that together employ over 1,000 people and are major suppliers of copper into the US. The potential closure was linked to more than US$200m of required environmental and modernisation spending and severely squeezed smelter margins. TS2 Tech
Glencore has officially denied that closure is currently being considered, saying it is continuing with an emissions‑reduction plan and stakeholder engagement. TS2 Tech
The Horne saga, together with earlier decisions such as the sale of the Pasar refinery in the Philippines, underlines three structural issues: TS2 Tech+1
- Environmental compliance costs for older smelters are rising sharply.
- Custom treatment charges in the copper smelting industry have at times gone negative, meaning smelters effectively subsidise miners to secure feedstock.
- Glencore is actively reshaping its industrial asset base, targeting about US$1bn in savings by 2026 through asset sales and restructuring.
These dynamics feed directly into ESG assessments and could influence how much regulatory and political risk investors are willing to tolerate in exchange for higher copper exposure.
Analyst ratings and price targets for Glencore plc
Sell‑side consensus: “Moderate Buy”
Traditional equity analysts remain generally constructive on Glencore:
- MarketBeat aggregates 6 analyst ratings over the past 12 months, showing a “Moderate Buy” consensus with 4 buys and 2 holds. The average 12‑month price target is about 392p, implying roughly 3–4% upside from a reference price of ~379p. [31]
- TipRanks uses a broader sample of 10 recent analyst ratings, again producing a “Moderate Buy” consensus, with 6 buys and 4 holds. Its average target of 389p represents around 8% upside versus a base price near 360p, with a high estimate of 440p and a low of 320p. [32]
Across these datasets, there is no major Wall Street sell rating on Glencore right now; the debate is more about “decent value” vs “cheap with big risks”, not “uninvestable”.
Quant models: more cautious
Quantitative and AI‑driven models are less enthusiastic:
- An AI‑powered stock‑rating service currently assigns Glencore a “Strong Sell” score, even while acknowledging a +28% total return over the last quarter and a five‑year total return close to +89%. The algorithm appears to be focused on volatility, earnings quality and factor exposures rather than near‑term momentum. [33]
- Fundamental forecast models suggest earnings per share could grow by just over 50% annually over the next three years, but with revenue rising less than 1% per year and return on equity stabilising around 12%, implying much of the earnings growth is cyclical and capital‑structure driven rather than organic top‑line expansion. [34]
In other words, the machines are less impressed than the humans, flagging that the stock’s risk/return profile is still skewed towards volatility and cyclicality.
What the latest analyses are saying
Recent commentary from retail and professional outlets converges on a few themes:
- Recovery from a deep drawdown: Several articles frame the current move as a bounce from a share price that had fallen around 30–35% earlier in the year, noting that the recent 25–50% rally still leaves the stock below previous peaks. [35]
- Copper‑driven upside: Analysts highlight near‑record copper prices and Glencore’s big copper growth ambitions as the core bull case, particularly given AI‑driven data‑centre build‑out and grid‑upgrade demand. [36]
- Coal and ESG overhang: On the bear side, commentators worry about regulatory and reputational risk around coal (including legal setbacks such as the Ulan coal ruling in Australia), and the optics of cutting jobs while spending billions on buybacks. [37]
- Capital‑allocation “exam”: Several pieces emphasise that Glencore’s WACC vs ROIC gap and mixed smelter economics mean management is effectively sitting an ongoing exam on capital allocation: every smelter upgrade, recycling investment and M&A deal will be judged against the alternative of simply buying back more stock. TS2 Tech+1
Key risks for Glencore shareholders
Anyone looking at GLEN today needs to keep a few big risk buckets in mind:
- Commodity price risk
Glencore is highly leveraged to copper, coal, zinc, cobalt and nickel prices. A cyclical downswing, especially in copper or coal, would hit earnings hard and could quickly make the current buyback‑fuelled rerating look over‑optimistic. [38] - Regulatory and ESG risk
- Coal projects like Ulan face escalating legal and policy challenges. TS2 Tech+1
- Smelters such as Horne are under pressure from both regulators and local communities over emissions. TS2 Tech
- Global climate policy, carbon pricing and tariffs can disrupt trade flows, as Glencore itself warned in its trading outlook. [39]
- Political risk in key jurisdictions
Glencore operates in countries ranging from DRC and Colombia to Argentina and Chile, where policy shifts, tax regimes and community conflicts can change quickly. The upside of the RIGI regime in Argentina could just as easily be offset by future policy reversals. [40] - Balance sheet and investment cycle
Net debt has ticked higher to fund acquisitions like Elk Valley Resources, and large future commitments (Chile smelter, Alumbrera, MARA, battery‑recycling ventures) could stress the balance sheet if commodity prices roll over. TS2 Tech+1 - Market‑structure risk
As a major trader, Glencore benefits from volatility but can also be hit by tariff‑driven dislocations or sudden liquidity squeezes in physical markets, as noted in its commentary around US tariff “stop‑start” policy. [41]
Glencore stock: bull vs bear thesis into 2026
Pulling everything together, the 5 December 2025 picture looks roughly like this.
Bull case in one paragraph
Glencore offers leveraged exposure to copper and other transition metals at a valuation that many consider modest, with a multi‑year copper growth plan to 1.6Mt, strong coal cash flows funding large buybacks and dividends, and new strategic assets like the Chile smelter JV and Alumbrera restart that could pay off in a tight metals market. If copper stays strong and management continues to recycle capital smartly (Viterra, Century Aluminum, non‑core smelter sales), today’s share price could still underestimate Glencore’s through‑cycle earnings power. [42]
Bear case in one paragraph
The bear view sees a company over‑dependent on coal and volatile trading profits, with a patchy record of capital allocation, shrinking ROIC, rising ESG liabilities and growing political risk in its asset base. Smelting and refinery assets may remain low‑return, regulatory headaches; the Chile smelter is a long‑dated, multi‑billion‑dollar bet; and the current US$1bn+ buyback could simply be pulling forward returns in a cyclical upswing rather than reflecting durable value creation. Under that lens, recent share price strength is a classic late‑cycle rally, not the start of a structural rerating. IndustriALL+3TS2 Tech+3Reuters+3
Final word
As of 5 December 2025, Glencore is not the unloved, drifting stock it was earlier in the year. It’s a high‑beta, copper‑leveraged, buyback‑fuelled miner‑trader sitting near 52‑week highs, with the market split between those who see a mispriced transition‑metals champion and those who see a coal‑heavy, ESG‑problematic cash machine trying to reinvent itself on the fly.
Whichever camp you lean toward, the investment case now hinges on just a few big variables: copper prices over the next decade, the pace of coal’s decline, and whether management can prove that its billions in buybacks and new projects are earning more than they cost.
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.glencore.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. stockinvest.us, 5. danelfin.com, 6. www.fool.co.uk, 7. www.glencore.com, 8. www.glencore.com, 9. www.nasdaq.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.glencore.com, 12. www.glencore.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.glencore.com, 16. www.glencore.com, 17. www.glencore.com, 18. www.glencore.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.mining.com, 25. www.theguardian.com, 26. www.theguardian.com, 27. www.glencore.com, 28. seekingalpha.com, 29. global.morningstar.com, 30. www.fool.co.uk, 31. www.marketbeat.com, 32. www.tipranks.com, 33. danelfin.com, 34. simplywall.st, 35. uk.finance.yahoo.com, 36. www.glencore.com, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. www.glencore.com, 39. www.reuters.com, 40. www.reuters.com, 41. www.reuters.com, 42. www.glencore.com
