London, Feb 5, 2026, 08:26 GMT — Regular session
- Glencore shares slip 1.2% in early London trading ahead of takeover deadline
- Sources say Rio Tinto will ask for an extension on negotiations; some investors resist paying a premium
- Glencore’s negotiations over its Congo copper-cobalt stake hit turbulence, while plans for a Quebec smelter investment face a pause, stirring uncertainty around deals
Glencore shares dropped 1.2% to 505.00 pence by 08:08 GMT, starting the day at 498.45 pence. The stock swung between 495.20 and 505.90 pence, after closing at 511.20 pence previously. 1
Rio Tinto and Glencore look set to extend merger talks before a UK takeover deadline on Thursday, according to three sources close to the discussions. Some Rio shareholders, especially in Australia, have resisted paying a premium for Glencore and remain skeptical about the value of its trading division, the sources said. Hugh Dive from Atlas Funds described the extension as “a face-saving device,” while Andy Forster of Argo Investments added: “You want to feel any deal is a win-win for shareholders and you don’t want to be paying away all of the upside.” 2
The clock is ticking because UK takeover rules impose a strict deadline: a bidder has to either make a firm offer or back off, unless regulators grant an extension. If Rio pulls out, it could quickly strip away the takeover premium from Glencore’s shares. 3
The Financial Times says Rio is aiming to retain both its chair and CEO in leading roles, while Glencore wants a substantial premium. According to the report, the miners are still wide apart on valuation and governance, fueling skepticism about whether a deal can be struck on terms either side finds acceptable. 4
Glencore revealed this week it’s in talks to offload a 40% stake in its Mutanda Mining and Kamoto Copper Company operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo to the U.S.-supported Orion Critical Mineral Consortium. The company valued these assets at roughly $9 billion, debt included. 5
Glencore announced it has signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with Orion CMC, so no final deal is set yet. Under the terms, the consortium can appoint non-executive directors and control the sale of its share of production to chosen buyers, while Glencore will keep managing the assets. CEO Gary Nagle said the partnership aims to supply “two critical minerals” to the US and its allies. The two sites are expected to produce a combined 247.8 thousand tonnes of copper and 33.5 thousand tonnes of cobalt in 2025. 6
Glencore is grappling with regulatory and emissions challenges in Canada. On Tuesday, the company announced it had paused nearly $1 billion in planned investments at its Horne Smelter in Quebec due to a lack of regulatory clarity, and will also cut back spending at its Montreal plant. Chief operating officer Marc Bédard said Glencore had “worked in good faith and explored every option” but the necessary conditions weren’t met. 7
There’s a clear risk for the shares: Rio can still back out, and investors who backed the deal might rethink their positions just as fast. The talks over the Congo stake sale aren’t sealed, while the Quebec dispute highlights how quickly local regulations can upend cash strategies.
Traders are now zeroing in on the UK takeover deadline at 5 p.m. London time this Thursday. The key question: will the companies announce an extension or call it quits? 8
