London, Jan 9, 2026, 10:45 GMT — Regular session
- Glencore shares rose about 8% after the company confirmed preliminary discussions with Rio Tinto on a possible combination
- The talks are at an early stage and could involve an all-share deal, with UK takeover rules setting a Feb. 5 decision deadline
- Investors are watching for further deal detail and for Glencore’s next scheduled updates later this month and in February
Glencore plc shares jumped on Friday after the miner and commodities trader confirmed it is in preliminary talks with Rio Tinto about a possible tie-up that could include an all-share merger. Glencore’s share price tools showed the stock at 447.83 pence, up 34.83 pence, by 10:00 GMT, with prices delayed by 10 minutes. 1
The revived talks land as big miners jostle for metals such as copper, used in power grids and data centres, and after a run of dealmaking across the sector. A combination of Rio and Glencore would create the world’s largest miner by market value at roughly $207 billion, according to Reuters calculations, overtaking BHP. 2
The market reaction was lopsided: Glencore surged while Rio’s shares fell, a split that typically signals the target is seen as the main winner. “Investors are not happy with this,” said Hugh Dive, chief investment officer at Atlas Funds Management, which holds Rio stock. Others warned Rio would need a clean plan for Glencore’s coal exposure to bring shareholders along. 3
Both companies said the discussions are preliminary and there is no certainty an offer will be made or on what terms. Rio said the current expectation is an all-share merger — paid in stock rather than cash — structured through a UK “scheme of arrangement”, a court-approved process often used in takeovers. Under UK takeover rules, Rio has until 5 p.m. London time on Feb. 5 to announce a firm intention to make an offer or to walk away, unless the Takeover Panel grants an extension. 4
Supporters argue the strategic logic is straightforward: Rio needs more copper and Glencore brings it, along with a big marketing arm that throws off cash in volatile markets. “It was better to buy producing assets rather than to wait to build new mines,” Berenberg analyst Richard Hatch said, adding Rio needs more copper as “the market (rightly or wrongly) views iron ore as a commodity facing price decline.” The two groups have discussed combining before, including talks that ended without a deal in late 2024. 5
But big mining tie-ups have a habit of stalling once the hard work starts, and the list of potential obstacles is long — from antitrust reviews to the question of what sits where in a combined portfolio. Morningstar’s Michael Field said scepticism was warranted: “We’ve seen this before where deal talks in this industry roll on for a few months and then fall apart.” Glencore’s move on Friday pushed the stock to its highest level since July 2024, adding to the pressure for both sides to explain the numbers quickly. 6
Outside markets, the politics are awkward. In a sector pushing to polish its energy-transition credentials, Glencore is still a major coal producer, and investors have flagged coal as a sticking point in earlier talks, along with valuation and leadership questions. “Last year’s theme of consolidation in the natural resources sector has shown no sign of let-up in the early part of 2026,” said Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown. 7
For Glencore stock, the near-term calendar now matters as much as the rumour mill. The company’s corporate calendar lists a full-year production and resources and reserves update for Jan. 29 and preliminary annual results for Feb. 18, the next fixed dates for new numbers as deal speculation swirls. 8
