Global Smartphone Market Share in 2025: Who Leads, Who Lags, and What Comes Next

Global smartphone shipments are finally growing again — but AI phones, foldables and rising memory costs are quietly reshaping market share. Here’s what the latest data from IDC, Counterpoint, Omdia, Statcounter and others tells us as of December 2025.

1. The Smartphone Market Is Back in Growth Mode

After two painful years of decline, the smartphone industry has now logged several consecutive quarters of growth.

According to IDC, global smartphone sales in 2024 rose around 6.4% year‑on‑year to about 1.24 billion units, ending the post‑pandemic slump and confirming the recovery that started in late 2023. ^[1]
In Q3 2025, IDC’s latest Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker shows shipments of roughly 325.7 million smartphones, up 3.5% year‑on‑year. ^[2]
Omdia’s separate tracker is in the same ballpark, estimating 320.1 million units and 3% growth for the quarter, with emerging economies doing much of the heavy lifting. ^[3]

So, while growth isn’t explosive, the direction is clearly upward. The rebound is being driven by:

pent‑up replacement demand after extended upgrade cycles,
better financing and trade‑in offers, and
a new wave of AI‑enhanced and foldable flagships that finally feel “different enough” to justify upgrading. ^[4]

2. Q3 2025: Samsung and Apple Still Rule Global Market Share

IDC’s Q3 2025 data confirms that the global smartphone market remains highly concentrated at the top. ^[5]

Top vendors by shipments, Q3 2025 (IDC, preliminary)

Rounded figures based on IDC’s worldwide tracker:

Samsung – ≈61 million units, ~19% share
Apple – ≈59 million units, ~18% share
Xiaomi – ≈43 million units, ~13% share
Transsion – ≈29 million units, ~9% share
vivo – ≈28 million units, ~9% share
Others – collectively just over 32% of the market

IDC notes that Samsung and Apple both posted solid year‑on‑year shipment growth in the quarter, helped by new flagship launches and strong demand in the premium segment. Xiaomi’s growth was modest but positive, while Transsion once again delivered double‑digit growth from its core African and emerging‑market strongholds. ^[6]

Other trackers show slightly different percentages — TechInsights, for example, puts Samsung at around 19% and Apple at 17% in Q3 2025, with Xiaomi, vivo and Transsion rounding out the global top five — but the ranking is the same: Samsung first, Apple second, Chinese brands filling most of the rest of the top 10. ^[7]

The interesting part is how narrow the gap between Samsung and Apple has become, especially once you look at the full‑year forecasts.

3. Apple vs Samsung: A 14‑Year Story Flips in 2025

In shipments, Samsung still leads for Q3 2025. But 2025 as a full year looks like Apple’s moment.

IDC’s latest forecast, reported by Reuters on 2 December 2025, expects global smartphone shipments to grow 1.5% in 2025 to about 1.25 billion units, powered heavily by Apple’s performance. ^[8]
IDC projects Apple will ship about 247 million iPhones in 2025, a 6.1% increase, driven by strong demand for the iPhone 17 series, especially in China. ^[9]
Counterpoint Research goes further: in a late‑November outlook, it forecasts global smartphone shipments to grow 3.3% in 2025 and says Apple is on track to surpass Samsung in annual shipments for the first time in 14 years. ^[10]

Apple’s resurgence is particularly striking in China, where IDC data cited by multiple outlets show the company reversing early‑2025 declines to reach over 20% market share in October and November, thanks to the iPhone 17. ^[11]

For Samsung, the story is about consistency and product breadth:

It continues to lead global shipments with its mix of flagship Galaxy S and Z foldables plus a broad Galaxy A mid‑range portfolio.
Omdia notes that Samsung shipped around 60.6 million units in Q3 2025, up 6% year‑on‑year, reinforcing its number‑one position. ^[12]

In other words:

Short term (2025): Apple could win the annual shipments crown for the first time in over a decade. ^[13]
Quarterly and regional battles: Samsung remains incredibly strong, especially across Europe, the Middle East, Latin America and parts of Asia, and is leaning hard into foldables to defend premium share. ^[14]

4. The Rise of Chinese and Emerging‑Market Champions

Beyond the “big two”, Chinese and emerging‑market vendors now account for a huge share of global shipments.

Xiaomi: The steady #3

IDC and Omdia both place Xiaomi in third place, shipping around 43–44 million units in Q3 2025 and holding roughly 13% global share. ^[15]

Xiaomi’s volumes in China have softened as subsidies tapered off, but growth in Europe, Latin America and parts of Asia‑Pacific is offsetting that, powered by Redmi and Poco devices. ^[16]

Transsion: The African powerhouse going global

Transsion — the parent of Tecno, Infinix and itel — is the breakout story of the last few years:

IDC’s Q3 2025 data shows Transsion with about 9% global market share and more than 13% year‑on‑year shipment growth, enough to secure fourth place worldwide. ^[17]
Omdia reports that Africa’s smartphone market surged about 24% in Q3 2025 to roughly 22.8 million units, with Transsion as the dominant player, while the Middle East grew about 23% and Latin America around 1%. ^[18]

Transsion’s strategy is classic emerging‑market playbook: ultra‑aggressive pricing below $200, deep offline distribution, and features tuned to local tastes (camera tuning, dual SIM, battery first).

vivo and the rest of the pack

vivo holds roughly 9% share globally in IDC’s ranking, supported by refreshed mid‑range lines in India and Southeast Asia and AI‑boosted imaging features. ^[19]

Brands like OPPO (including OnePlus), Honor, Motorola/Lenovo, Realme and Huawei round out the global top 10, with share varying by region:

TechInsights’ Q3 2025 breakdown lists Xiaomi, vivo and Transsion in the top five, with OPPO, Honor, Lenovo‑Motorola, Huawei and Realme completing the top ten worldwide. ^[20]

5. Usage Share vs Shipment Share: A Different Picture

Shipment market share is about how many phones vendors ship in a given period. But if you look at installed base / active usage, the picture shifts.

Web analytics from Statcounter for November 2025 show: ^[21]

Apple: ~27.6% of active mobile devices worldwide
Samsung: ~20.7%
Xiaomi: ~10.5%
vivo: ~6.8%
OPPO: ~6.1%

Two key takeaways:

Apple over‑indexes on usage share vs shipment share, reflecting higher device longevity and heavy usage intensity among iPhone users.
Many smaller Android brands ship meaningful volumes but have much smaller installed‑base share, due to shorter device lifecycles and more churn in the low‑end Android segments.

6. Android vs iOS: OS Market Share in 2025

On the operating system side, Android remains dominant, but iOS continues to edge up in value and share:

Statcounter’s global OS numbers for November 2025 put Android at about 72% and iOS around 28% of active mobile devices. ^[22]
A separate analysis that blends Statcounter with shipment data finds a similar split — Android around 71–72%, iOS around 28–29% of the smartphone OS market in 2025. ^[23]

However, when you look at sales in a single quarter, Counterpoint estimates that iOS accounted for about 17% of global smartphone sales in Q3 2025, up roughly one percentage point year‑on‑year — a reminder that iPhones are skewed heavily toward the higher‑priced end of the market. ^[24]

In short:

Android dominates by volume and breadth, especially across emerging markets.
iOS punches above its weight in revenue and profits, and its installed‑base share is higher than its quarterly shipment share suggests.

7. GenAI Smartphones: From Buzzword to Mainstream

The biggest structural change inside the market share story is the rise of “GenAI smartphones” — devices with on‑device or tightly integrated generative AI capabilities.

IDC expects:

GenAI smartphone shipments to reach about 234 million units in 2024, up more than 360% from 2023. ^[25]
By 2028, around 912 million GenAI smartphones are forecast to ship annually, representing roughly 70% of all smartphone shipments. ^[26]
Other commentary based on IDC data suggests that 2025 alone could see over 370 million GenAI phones shipped, or close to 30% of the entire 2025 market. ^[27]

This is beginning to show up directly in vendor performance:

IDC and Omdia both highlight “AI‑enabled smartphones” as a key driver of Q3 2025 upgrades, particularly at the premium end. ^[28]
Counterpoint notes that Google posted the fastest growth among emerging brands in Q3 2025, with shipments rising about 35% year‑on‑year, thanks largely to the Pixel 9 series and its AI‑heavy feature set. ^[29]

GenAI features are assisting in:

better camera processing,
on‑device summarisation and translation,
voice assistants that finally feel useful, and
smarter recommendations and UI personalization.

For market share, this matters because GenAI is driving a new wave of premium upgrades, benefiting Apple, Samsung and Google at the high end — but also pushing Chinese OEMs to aggressively add AI features into $300–$500 phones.

8. Foldable Phones: Record Shipments, Tiny Share

Foldables remain a small slice of the overall market, but 2025 is a decisive year.

IDC expects the foldable smartphone market to grow around 6% year‑on‑year in 2025, up from about 4% in 2024, with similar mid‑single‑digit growth in 2026 and faster growth beyond that. ^[30]
Counterpoint reports that foldable shipments hit a record high in Q3 2025, and says full‑year 2025 is on track for mid‑teens percentage growth, with 2026 set for a more pronounced acceleration as hardware becomes slimmer and more durable. ^[31]
A separate Reuters piece on Samsung’s newly announced Galaxy Z TriFold notes that foldables are still expected to account for less than 3% of the overall smartphone market by 2027, underlining how niche the category remains for now. ^[32]

From a market‑share perspective, foldables are important because:

they help Samsung defend and differentiate the premium Android segment,
they give Huawei, Honor and others a way to stand out in China and parts of Europe, and
they offer higher ASPs, which matters a lot in an era of rising component costs.

But volume is still low, so even record foldable quarters don’t radically shift global vendor rankings yet.

9. Forecasts for 2025–2028: A Moving Target

One of the most interesting (and under‑reported) trends this year is how often forecasts have been revised.

IDC alone has updated its 2025 shipment forecast several times: ^[33]

February 2025:
- Forecast: +2.3% growth in 2025 to 1.26 billion units, driven by Android growth in China and the U.S. amid new tariffs. ^[34]
May 2025:
- Revised down to just 0.6% growth (about 1.24 billion units), citing tariff uncertainty, inflation and weak consumer confidence. ^[35]
August 2025:
- Tweaked again to around 1% growth in 2025, with Apple’s iOS devices expected to grow faster than Android overall. ^[36]
December 2025 (latest):
- Now, IDC expects 1.5% growth to 1.25 billion units in 2025, mainly because iPhone 17 demand came in much stronger than expected, particularly in China. ^[37]

Looking ahead to 2026, IDC is actually more pessimistic:

The latest forecast calls for a 0.9% decline in smartphone shipments in 2026, blaming rising memory prices and supply tightness that push average selling prices up and squeeze low‑ and mid‑range Android devices. ^[38]
Even with fewer units shipped, the total market value is expected to hit a record roughly $579 billion in 2026, as ASPs climb to around $465. ^[39]

By contrast, Counterpoint’s November 2025 forecast is more upbeat for 2025, calling for 3.3% global shipments growth and betting that Apple will edge past Samsung for the year. ^[40]

Meanwhile, long‑term projections from regulators citing IDC data suggest that:

Smartphone unit growth will slow to around 2.6% annually between 2023 and 2028, as saturation and longer device lifecycles bite. ^[41]
Yet smartphone subscriptions are still expected to rise from about 7.2 billion at the end of 2024 to roughly 8.3 billion by 2030 as more people in emerging markets adopt smartphones and many users carry multiple devices. ^[42]

10. What It All Means for Vendors, Investors and Consumers

Putting the numbers together, here’s the high‑level picture of smartphone market share in late 2025:

Samsung remains the global shipments leader and the most diversified vendor geographically and by price tier. Foldables and a huge A‑series portfolio help it defend share even as component costs rise. ^[43]
Apple is on track for record iPhone shipments and revenue in 2025, with the iPhone 17 driving a turnaround in China and potentially lifting Apple to the #1 spot in full‑year shipments for the first time in 14 years. ^[44]
Xiaomi, Transsion and vivo are consolidating their positions as the core challengers, especially across emerging markets where price sensitivity is high and Android dominates. ^[45]
Google and other “AI‑first” brands are using GenAI as a wedge to grab share, though from a relatively small base today. Pixel 9’s growth shows that AI‑centric flagships can move the needle. ^[46]
Android vs iOS remains a roughly 70/30 split globally in usage share, but iOS accounts for a disproportionate chunk of profits and high‑end upgrades. ^[47]
GenAI phones and foldables are becoming the key battlegrounds for premium market share, even if they are still a minority of total shipments today. ^[48]

For investors and industry watchers, the main themes into 2026 are:

Margin vs volume: Rising memory and component costs mean vendors may prioritise margins over raw unit growth, pushing more users toward premium or mid‑premium devices. ^[49]
AI as differentiation, not just hype: GenAI is increasingly visible in product roadmaps and is already affecting upgrade cycles and ASPs — especially for Apple, Samsung, Google and premium Chinese OEMs. ^[50]
Regional divergence: Africa, parts of the Middle East and some Asia‑Pacific markets are growing fast, while China and North America are more volatile, influenced by tariffs, subsidies and regulatory shifts. ^[51]

For consumers, the near‑term implication is simple:

Expect more powerful, more AI‑capable phones,
expect more foldables and new form factors like Samsung’s TriFold, and
unfortunately, expect prices to remain elevated, especially in 2026, as memory costs rise and vendors try to sustain profitability. ^[52]