GMDC Share Price Today (1 December 2025): Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Near ₹555 – Q2 FY26 Results, Rare Earth Policy Boost & 2026 Stock Forecast

Key takeaways

GMDC share price today: By late morning on 1 December 2025, Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Ltd (GMDC) was trading around ₹555 per share on the NSE, up roughly 3% from the previous close near ₹539.3. Intraday, the stock has oscillated between about ₹541 and ₹563. ^[1]
Big run-up, big volatility: Over the last six months GMDC is up about 51%, and around 56% over one year, with a 52‑week low near ₹226.6 and a high around ₹651 (10 October 2025) – a huge range for a state-owned miner. ^[2]
Q2 FY26 results: quality vs quantity: For the quarter ended 30 September 2025, revenue fell about 11% year-on-year to ~₹528 crore, and operating profit more than halved, with EBITDA margin sliding from roughly 24% to 13%. Net profit jumped to ~₹466 crore, but only because of a one‑time GST credit of ~₹474 crore; on an adjusted basis, the quarter would have shown a small net loss. ^[3]
Rare earth story + government push: A new ₹7,280‑crore incentive scheme for rare earth magnets has turned GMDC into a high‑beta play on India’s critical minerals strategy. The stock gained nearly 23% in three sessions after the announcement before giving back around 2%–5% on profit‑taking. ^[4]
Valuation and forecasts are split: Around today’s levels, GMDC’s market capitalisation is roughly ₹17,600 crore, with a P/E between about 17x and 27x, price‑to‑book near 2.5–2.6x, ROE ~11%, low debt and a trailing dividend yield of about 1.8%. ^[5] Quant models such as StockInvest have downgraded the stock to a short‑term “sell candidate” even while projecting a wide 3‑month trading band roughly between ₹485 and ₹706, whereas Simply Wall St’s intrinsic value model still sees the shares as ~21% undervalued but flags high volatility and earnings‑growth risks. ^[6]

GMDC share price today: how the stock is trading on 1 December 2025

According to live market data, Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation opened today’s session around ₹542, versus a previous close near ₹539.3. By late morning on 1 December 2025, the stock was quoting around ₹555, with an intraday high close to ₹563.5 and a low near ₹541, indicating another session of wide swings but an overall intraday uptrend. ^[7]

On a longer lookback, ET Money and Screener data show that as of today GMDC is up about 51% over six months and 56% over the last year. Its 52‑week low sits near ₹226.6 (3 March 2025), while the 52‑week high is around ₹651 (10 October 2025), underscoring how aggressively the stock has rerated during the year. ^[8]

Over five years, GMDC has delivered more than a 10‑bagger for early believers: Rare Earth Exchanges, summarising earlier market data, notes total returns above 1,100% over five years, with over 100% gains in the six months to early September 2025 – a level from which the stock has continued to climb before the recent consolidation. ^[9]

Business profile: from lignite PSU to critical minerals candidate

GMDC is a Gujarat government‑backed mining and power company founded in 1963. The state holds about 74% of the equity, making it a classic public‑sector undertaking (PSU) with a free float dominated by retail and a slowly rising institutional presence. ^[10]

Traditionally, GMDC has been known as:

India’s second‑largest lignite producer and leading merchant supplier of lignite to industries such as textiles, ceramics, chemicals, bricks and captive power plants in Gujarat. ^[11]
A diversified miner involved in bauxite, fluorspar, manganese, silica sand, limestone, bentonite and ball clay, alongside lignite. ^[12]
A modest but expanding power player, with thermal, wind and solar assets rounding out its portfolio. ^[13]

What has changed in the last 12–18 months is the narrative: GMDC is increasingly pitched as a critical minerals and rare earths story, not just a lignite PSU. Business Today highlighted management commentary that the company has earmarked ₹3,000–4,000 crore for projects in the critical minerals space, with rare earth elements (REEs) identified as a key “value driver” because of their use in permanent magnets for electric vehicles and clean‑energy technologies. ^[14]

Independent coverage from Rare Earth Exchanges adds that GMDC is developing rare earth deposits in Gujarat’s Chhota Udaipur district, aiming at an integrated “mine‑to‑processing” chain – precisely the value‑added part of the REE stack India currently lacks. ^[15]

Q1 & Q2 FY26: headline profits vs underlying pressure

Q1 FY26: decent but slowing

For Q1 FY26 (June 2025 quarter), GMDC reported net profit around ₹160–165 crore, down roughly 11% year‑on‑year, with revenue in the ₹730–810 crore range depending on the data source, implying a mid‑single‑digit decline in topline. ^[16] Margins remained respectable and the balance sheet stayed effectively debt‑free, but the numbers already hinted at softer operating trends versus the boom years of FY22–FY23. ^[17]

Q2 FY26: a big GST windfall, soft core operations

The more recent Q2 FY26 numbers (September 2025 quarter) are the real pivot point that investors are dissecting now:

Revenue: Consolidated net sales of about ₹527.6 crore, down ~11% year‑on‑year. ^[18]
Operating performance: EBITDA fell roughly 51% YoY, with margin compressing to about 13.2% from 24% in the same quarter last year – signalling weaker realisations and/or higher costs. ^[19]
Exceptional item (GST credit): GMDC booked an exceptional gain of ~₹474 crore after a GST rate change on lignite (from 5% to 18% from 22 September 2025) removed an inverted duty structure and allowed the company to recognise accumulated input tax credit that had previously hit the P&L. ^[20]
Profit before and after tax: Profit before tax (before exceptional items) fell around 15% YoY to ~₹155 crore, but reported profit after tax jumped to ~₹466 crore, up more than 260% year‑on‑year because of the one‑off GST gain. ^[21]

A widely‑circulated Reddit deep dive stripped out the one‑off and estimated that without the GST credit GMDC would have posted an adjusted net loss of about ₹8 crore in Q2, with EBITDA almost halving and margins under pressure. ^[22]

The market picked up on the quality issue. Following the Q2 FY26 announcement on 14 November 2025, GMDC’s share price fell roughly 4–5% intraday, reflecting concerns that the headline profit spike was not repeatable and that underlying operations were softer than they looked at first glance. ^[23]

Rare earth magnet scheme: policy boost, trading frenzy

The next catalyst came from New Delhi, not Ahmedabad. On 28 November 2025, the Union Cabinet approved a ₹7,280‑crore incentive scheme to build 6,000 tonnes per year of rare earth magnet capacity in India, aiming to cut dependence on China and secure supply for electric vehicles and high‑tech manufacturing. ^[24]

Because GMDC is already active in bauxite and rare earth mineral exploration, including lithium prospects, the stock was quickly identified as a potential beneficiary of this policy. Economic Times reporting describes how GMDC shares rallied nearly 23% over three sessions, before slipping about 2.2% on 28 November as traders booked profits after the sharp move. ^[25]

Technically, ET’s analysis pointed out that the stock had run into short‑term resistance around its 20‑day exponential moving average, even while longer‑term 100‑ and 200‑day EMAs stayed supportive – a classic “overbought but structurally bullish” setup. ^[26]

Rare Earth Exchanges places this in a broader context: GMDC’s rally is part of a global scramble for critical minerals, with the company framing its rare earth ambitions as aligned with India’s clean‑energy and strategic‑materials agenda. However, the article also highlights brokerage caution – including Nuvama’s “Reduce” rating with a target price around ₹231, less than half the stock’s recent peak levels, citing expensive valuations and slower‑than‑hoped lignite mine ramp‑up. ^[27]

Valuation snapshot: GMDC by the numbers (as of 1 December 2025)

Screener and other data providers give a reasonably consistent cross‑section of GMDC at today’s price levels: ^[28]

Share price: ~₹555
Market capitalisation: ~₹17,600 crore
52‑week range: ~₹226.6 – ₹651
Stock P/E: about 26.9x trailing consolidated earnings on Screener; Simply Wall St, using a different earnings base, pegs it closer to 17x and still regards the stock as roughly 21% below its estimate of fair value. ^[29]
Price‑to‑book: around 2.6x, given a book value of roughly ₹211 per share. ^[30]
Return on equity (ROE): ~11% in the most recent full year, with 3‑year ROE around 14%. ^[31]
Dividend: GMDC declared a ₹10.10 per share dividend in September 2025, implying a trailing yield near 2% at today’s price; the company has a history of high payout ratios but recent commentary notes that dividends are not fully covered by free cash flow. ^[32]
Balance sheet: Practically debt‑free, with only small borrowings compared with equity, and long‑term profit growth of around 36% over five years off a low base. ^[33]

Screener also flags a key caveat: the trailing earnings base includes around ₹893 crore of “other income”, which heavily reflects the GST‑related credit and other non‑core items. That makes simple P/E comparisons trickier – a central point for anyone trying to value GMDC like a steady‑state industrial rather than a policy‑driven resource stock. ^[34]

What analysts and models are saying about GMDC stock

Technical/quant views

StockInvest (BSE: GMDCLTD.BO)
As of its 28 November 2025 update, StockInvest’s AI‑driven technical model downgraded GMDC from “Hold/Accumulate” to a “Sell candidate”, after the stock fell about 2.4% to ₹539.35 on the BSE. The analysis notes: ^[35]
- The price has declined in 7 of the last 10 sessions, down roughly 8.5% over that short period.
- Short‑term moving averages still give a buy signal, but longer‑term averages are bearish, creating a mixed picture.
- The model expects the stock to rise about 7.7% over the next three months, with a 90% probability band between roughly ₹485 and ₹706, emphasising both upside potential and high volatility.
MarketsMojo (June 2025)
Back in June 2025, MarketsMojo downgraded GMDC to a “Sell” zone, arguing that the stock had moved from “expensive” to “very expensive” on their valuation framework. At that time, GMDC traded around 17x earnings and 1.8x book, with the platform highlighting a sideways technical trend despite good quarterly performance. ^[36]

Fundamental/valuation‑driven views

Simply Wall St
Simply Wall St’s fundamental dashboard gives GMDC a mixed “snowflake” profile: strong on financial health and dividends, but weak on valuation and future growth. It notes that: ^[37]
- GMDC’s P/E is lower than the broader Indian market in its model, making it look modestly cheap.
- Revenue is forecast to grow ~18% per year, but earnings are forecast to decline by ~1.9% per year over the next three years, as one‑off gains roll off and margins normalise.
- The stock is highly volatile over three months, and the dividend is not well covered by free cash flows.
Brokerage commentary via Rare Earth Exchanges
Rare Earth Exchanges reports that Nuvama maintains a “Reduce” rating on GMDC with a target of about ₹231, arguing that the share price already discounts a lot of optimism around rare earths and that lignite mine ramp‑up has been slower than bullish scenarios assumed. ^[38]
Business Today (September 2025)
When GMDC surged about 6–7% to ₹430.5 on 1 September 2025, Business Today quoted several technical analysts who: ^[39]
- Suggested strong support around ₹400.
- Saw near‑term resistance in the ₹435–480 zone.
- Advised existing investors to hold with a long‑term view, but urged caution on fresh entries after the sharp rally.

Taken together, the message from the analyst community is not a neat “buy” or “sell” sticker. Fundamental models tend to like GMDC’s strong balance sheet, dividend and critical‑minerals optionality, but they are wary of earnings quality and valuation, while short‑term technical models highlight elevated risk and frequent sharp swings. ^[40]

Institutional interest and ownership trends

Institutional investors have been quietly upping their exposure to GMDC through 2025, even though absolute stakes remain small:

An Economic Times screen of stocks where both FIIs and mutual funds have been steadily buying shows GMDC’s share price rising from ₹369 to about ₹600 over the past year, a 63% gain, while: ^[41]
- Mutual fund holdings nudged up from 0.12% to 0.14%.
- FII holdings rose more sharply from 2.15% to 3.32% over three quarters.
Screener’s shareholding data corroborate that promoters hold 74%, FIIs now own just over 3%, DIIs under 1%, and the public about 22%, with the number of shareholders expanding significantly over recent years – classic signs of a PSU stock that has caught the wider market’s attention. ^[42]

Institutional buying from a low base doesn’t guarantee future returns, but it does show that “smart money” is taking GMDC’s critical‑minerals and dividend story seriously enough to allocate capital – even as some of the same institutions remain valuation‑conscious.

Key risks investors should track

Earnings quality and one‑offs
Q2 FY26’s gigantic GST credit transformed what would have been a weak quarter – with lower revenue, halved EBITDA and compressed margins – into a headline profit spike. As several analysts and commentators have noted, investors need to focus on underlying cash earnings, not just reported PAT. ^[43]
Commodity and regulatory exposure
GMDC’s core lignite business is heavily exposed to fuel prices, regulatory changes and demand from energy‑intensive industries. The very GST rule change that delivered a one‑time windfall also reflects how tax policy can swing GMDC’s economics. The company has repeatedly revised lignite prices and discount schemes through 2025, underlining its sensitivity to policy and market conditions. ^[44]
Execution risk in critical minerals and rare earths
Turning rare earth deposits in Chhota Udaipur into a reliable, integrated mine‑to‑magnet value chain is a multi‑year, capex‑heavy project, with significant geological, technological and regulatory hurdles. Both Rare Earth Exchanges and brokerages like Nuvama emphasise that visibility on timelines, processing capacity and returns remains limited, even as the share price already prices in a large chunk of that optionality. ^[45]
Share‑price volatility
GMDC’s 52‑week range of ₹226–651, multi‑bagger five‑year return profile, and repeated technical “overbought” readings all point to a stock that can move sharply in both directions. Simply Wall St explicitly flags “high share‑price volatility” as a major risk, and StockInvest classifies GMDC as “high risk” based on intraday swings and wide Bollinger Bands. ^[46]
State ownership and capital allocation
With the Gujarat government owning three‑quarters of the company, GMDC’s capital allocation, dividend policy and strategic direction may sometimes reflect state priorities as much as minority‑shareholder returns, for better or worse. That can be a stabilising anchor in turbulent markets, but it can also introduce political and policy risk.

GMDC stock forecast for 2026: scenario‑based view

No forecast is certain, but the data and current analyst views suggest a few broad scenarios for 2026:

Bullish case: rare earth execution + steady cash flows
If GMDC can stabilise its core lignite and industrial minerals earnings, continue to grow revenue at something like the mid‑teens to high‑teens rate that some models project, and show tangible progress on rare earth and other critical‑minerals projects, the stock could justify current valuations or even a premium. In this world, GMDC remains a high‑yield, low‑debt PSU with genuine growth drivers, and the share price tends to track earnings plus any re‑rating. ^[47]
Bearish case: mean reversion in margins and de‑rating
If underlying EBITDA remains weak, one‑off gains disappear, and rare earth projects are delayed or downsized, GMDC could see earnings compress and the market cut the P/E back to single‑digit “cyclical miner” territory. That’s essentially what cautious brokerages are warning about when they set targets less than half the current share price. ^[48]
Base case: volatility around a rising long‑term trend
StockInvest’s projection of a wide 3‑month band between roughly ₹485 and ₹706, combined with Simply Wall St’s view of modest undervaluation, points to a base case where GMDC continues to whipsaw traders while gradually following fundamentals – revenues rising, earnings normalising after the GST windfall, and policy news on rare earths driving periodic spikes and corrections. ^[49]

For long‑term investors, that essentially makes GMDC a leveraged bet on India’s critical‑minerals and energy transition story, layered on top of a cyclical lignite and industrial‑minerals business.

Bottom line

As of 1 December 2025, GMDC is no longer a sleepy state‑owned lignite miner. It is:

A debt‑light, dividend‑paying PSU with strong historical returns.
A volatile mid‑cap whose valuation is tangled up with one‑off GST gains and commodity cycles.
A speculative proxy on India’s rare earth and critical‑minerals ambitions, now turbocharged by a multi‑thousand‑crore magnet incentive scheme. ^[50]

That mix explains why different models and analysts can simultaneously call GMDC undervalued, over‑valued, a sell candidate and a long‑term hold. For anyone considering the stock, the crucial work for 2026 is less about guessing tomorrow’s price tick and more about tracking how quickly GMDC can convert policy buzz and exploration acreage into durable, high‑quality earnings.

References