NEW YORK, Sept. 4, 2026, 7:20 a.m. EDT — Gold traded near $4,475 an ounce Friday after climbing about 2% on Thursday, as investors weighed how much expectation for fewer rate hikes was already reflected ahead of the U.S. jobs report.
Spot gold stood at $4,474.78 at 5:10 a.m. EDT, unchanged, while December COMEX futures slipped 0.4% to $4,521.40, according to Reuters market data. A delayed Yahoo Finance update showed the rolling U.S. gold-futures quote at $4,517.00 at 7:09:40 a.m. EDT. These are separate instruments and their prices are not directly comparable.
Two major U.S. bullion funds showed little movement early Friday. SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD) was indicated at $409.72 at 7:19:09 a.m. EDT, down 0.12% from Thursday’s $410.22 close. iShares Gold Trust (NYSEARCA:IAU) was indicated at $83.99 at 7:19:08 a.m. EDT, 0.13% below its $84.10 close. Both premarket quotes were delayed, with no volume reported on Yahoo Finance, and served as reference points rather than actionable prices.
Waller revised the rate formula
Thursday’s action started with monetary policy. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said recent data pointed to some disinflation and that he would favor keeping the federal-funds target at 3.50% to 3.75% if that trend persists. He added, “If inflation comes in hot, I would consider a rate hike.” In his official remarks, three-month core inflation was 3.05% through July, down from 4.76% in February.
Markets lowered the chance of a September hike to 50% from 63.2% on Wednesday, based on a Reuters survey and CME FedWatch reading. The shift sent the dollar lower and trimmed yields on Thursday, easing two headwinds for holding non-yielding metals.
Friday’s buyer enters after the initial move. Independent analyst Ross Norman told Reuters that Waller’s signal gave gold “something of a steroid shot,” but cautioned that new data would be more important. The pause overnight suggests the policy shift caused a sharp rise, then consolidation, not another rally.
What Could Shift After the 8:30 Report
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August jobs report at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Reuters-polled economists expect payrolls to increase by 56,000 after falling by 23,000 in July, with projections ranging from a loss of 25,000 to a gain of 121,000. The jobless rate is seen steady at 4.1%, while annual wage growth is forecast to ease to 3.0% from 3.2%.
Local-government education jobs dropped by 49,600 in July and could recover, while some Haitian immigrants losing work authorization may weigh on August payrolls. A consensus-level report would offer little insight on inflation. A significant miss, higher unemployment, or unexpected wage data could move the dollar, Treasury yields, and gold.
Gold’s decision map for 8:30 a.m. EDT
Editorial scenarios, not forecasts. Read payrolls together with unemployment and wages.
Gold-favorable surprise
Signal: Payrolls below zero, unemployment above 4.1%, or wage growth below 3.0%.
First check: Falling Treasury yields and a softer dollar would confirm the move.
Near consensus
Signal: Payrolls around 56,000, unemployment at 4.1%, and wage growth near 3.0%.
First check: The reaction may fade as attention shifts to next week’s inflation data.
Gold-negative surprise
Signal: Payrolls above 100,000 alongside wage growth above 3.0%.
First check: A higher dollar and yields would show renewed rate-hike pricing.
These thresholds highlight combinations that could shift investment decisions. Payroll gains above 100,000 paired with weak wages would give mixed signals. A soft headline driven by temporary classifications or seasonal effects may quickly reverse as traders review the details.
Rebound remains within broad 2026 range
Gold traded early Friday 17.2% under its January record of $5,405 and 11.8% above its June low of $4,002. The gap is notable. The market could sustain a recovery without nearing the yearly high, but a rebound in real yields may reverse Thursday’s gain before prices test the June low.
Underlying demand remains uneven. The World Gold Council’s second-quarter report showed total demand at 1,269 tonnes, unchanged from a year earlier. Central banks and other official institutions added a net 289 tonnes, up 62%. Investment in ETFs, bars and coins dropped to 262 tonnes, with 45 tonnes of gold-ETF outflows in the quarter. First-half ETF demand was positive by 18 tonnes.
The split shows rates and the dollar can drive the next move. Official-sector buying acts slowly. Western ETF flows can shift in a session as opportunity costs change. The World Gold Council says second-half flows will likely track real yields, U.S. policy expectations and the dollar.
Citi kept a $4,800 target for the next three months and a $5,000 forecast for six to 12 months, Reuters reported Friday. The three-month target is 7.3% above the early spot quote; $5,000 suggests 11.7% upside. Both fall short of January’s record and depend on Thursday’s rate move holding through jobs and inflation data.
Yields confirm inflation trend
A gold rally fueled by jobs data is more likely if both the dollar and Treasury yields decline. If gold rises while the dollar strengthens or yields climb, other factors like hedging or short covering may be at play, raising questions about the rally’s staying power.
Waller said August inflation data will be key to his September vote. Producer prices are due Sept. 10 and consumer prices Sept. 11, according to the BLS. The Federal Open Market Committee meets Sept. 15-16. A payroll result near 56,000 keeps the gold outlook tied to reduced odds of a rate hike, but sensitive to inflation numbers that could change the view.
