New York, June 15, 2026, 07:47 EDT
- Gold jumped close to 3% on Monday. Spot prices were last seen near $4,345 an ounce, while August Comex futures traded at about $4,358.
- Oil prices fell, the dollar was weaker and traders dialed down expectations for another Fed rate hike after word of a tentative U.S.-Iran peace deal.
- Next up is the Fed meeting on June 16–17. Markets are watching Chair Kevin Warsh’s first policy press conference.
Gold jumped Monday after U.S. and Iranian officials announced a first-step deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, putting oil, inflation, and U.S. rates back in play. Live gold hit $4,344.90 an ounce, up 3.00%, according to Kitco’s spot price feed. Spot gold was last up 2.8% at $4,336.49 as of 1044 GMT on Reuters. August futures rose 2.81% in early U.S. trade to $4,357.70, CME data showed.
Gold’s rise is important for miners and gold ETFs. Bullion drives most of the revenue for mining companies and for ETFs such as SPDR Gold Shares ETF, which ended last session at $386.54. VanEck Gold Miners ETF added 3.0% to $80.03, again beating gold’s move. Miners’ shares often outpace the metal when gold is up, helping margins, but if gold drops or costs go up, the effect reverses.
Gold edged up as oil prices dropped, taking some pressure off inflation fears. Gold tends to lose appeal when rates go up since it doesn’t yield. According to Reuters, traders now see a 53% chance of a Fed hike in December versus 69% a week ago. “Near term, I would expect some consolidation,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo, with markets looking for more guidance from the Fed. Reuters
Gold is cheaper for overseas buyers as the dollar weakens. Analysts say reserve diversification, policy worries, and stubborn inflation are helping hold up demand. But gold’s rebound has lost momentum after its sharp slide. Reuters said bullion dropped under its 200-day moving average last week, something it hadn’t done in two and a half years. That’s a key technical level. State Street’s Aakash Doshi said the biggest risk for gold now is the Fed raising rates if inflation keeps running hot.
Gold is drawing buyers mainly from those looking for a hedge against unstable currencies, policy risks, or more geopolitical worries. Monday’s rally has left gold at a higher price. Short-term traders face a market now tied to whether the U.S.-Iran deal sticks and if cheaper oil keeps pressure off the Fed to raise rates. The focus turns to Wednesday, when the Fed announces its rate decision and Kevin Warsh will have his first press conference as Fed chair. Most analysts expect the Fed to hold rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% and to issue fresh economic projections, according to Reuters.
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