New York, February 11, 2026, 12:14 (EST) — Regular session underway.
- Gold edged up, though it backed away from earlier peaks following a robust U.S. jobs report.
- With inflation numbers expected Friday, traders are reworking their bets on when the Fed might move on rates.
- Silver bounces back, recovering ground lost in the previous session’s steep drop
Gold climbed Wednesday, though gains faded after a robust U.S. jobs report dampened hopes for a quick Fed rate cut. Spot gold was last up 0.7% at $5,058.23 an ounce as of 11:28 a.m. ET, pulling back from an earlier high of $5,118.47. Year to date, the metal’s up 17.5%. April U.S. gold futures advanced 1% to $5,081.90. Spot silver rallied 3.1% to $83.04; platinum and palladium nudged higher as well. “The jobs report will shut the tiny crack in the door for a March rate cut,” said independent metals trader Tai Wong. 1
Gold’s moves have become a kind of vote on U.S. interest rates, not just a safety play. Even minor shifts in Fed expectations can jolt bullion prices.
Gold doesn’t yield interest, making it more appealing as rate-cut bets grow and returns from cash or bonds come down. Flip that narrative—even for a moment—and the rally can lose momentum.
Nonfarm payrolls climbed by 130,000 in January, according to the Labor Department, outpacing the 70,000 figure economists had penciled in. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%. Still, Christopher Rupkey at FWDBONDS flagged that hiring was concentrated in health care and social assistance, warning not to get carried away with the headline number. 2
The retail sales numbers released Tuesday turned the markets around. December’s retail sales stalled, showing no change, while “core” retail sales edged down by 0.1%. Thomas Ryan, North America economist at Capital Economics, said, “signs of earlier consumer strength may be starting to falter.” 3
So bullion sits in limbo—one side, consumer fatigue creeping in; the other, jobs data that keeps coming in solid. Upcoming releases, not the charts, are really driving the story now.
Economists polled by Reuters expect the Fed to keep rates steady through the end of Chair Jerome Powell’s term in May, anticipating the first rate cut in June. Attention is turning to Kevin Warsh, the likely next chair, and whether policy could move too far in the other direction. “It’s very clear Warsh will push for additional easing this year,” said Oscar Munoz, chief U.S. macro strategist at TD Securities. The real question, Munoz noted, is just how far he’ll take it. 4
Volatility has been anything but mild. Late January saw spot gold tumble 9.5%, snapping back from a record high of $5,594.82. That peak came just as President Donald Trump tapped Warsh for Fed chair, which set off a wave of profit-taking throughout the precious metals space. 5
Gold slipped for a second straight session, losing almost 1% to $5,013 by Tuesday afternoon as traders braced for this week’s key macro updates. “We’re seeing a light pullback or consolidation,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. At that point, the market was still anticipating two rate cuts of 25 basis points each by year-end. January saw Indian investors flocking to gold ETFs—funds that mirror stock trading—while London vault numbers pointed to increased gold reserves and a slight dip in silver holdings at the close of January. 6
Even so, bullion has a habit of reversing course in a hurry. If U.S. inflation data surprises to the upside, traders might scrap bets on cuts and send the dollar higher—bad news for gold on both fronts.
The U.S. consumer price index lands Friday (Feb. 13), and that’s where investors are focusing now—seen as the clearer read on whether inflation’s easing enough for the Fed to consider a move.
