NEW YORK, March 21, 2026, 14:22 (EDT)
Gold notched its third consecutive weekly decline on Friday. Spot prices for immediate delivery slid 1.8% to $4,563.64 an ounce, while April U.S. gold futures settled at $4,574.90. For the week, the futures contract tumbled 9.5%—marking the sharpest weekly percentage loss since September 2011.
Gold is typically a magnet for investors during geopolitical flare-ups and market jitters. Not so this week: the metal struggled as oil climbed, the dollar strengthened, and Treasury yields ticked up. Investors started to price out imminent rate cuts—never great news for a non-yielding asset.
The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% on Wednesday, raising its 2026 inflation outlook to 2.7%—up from the previous 2.4%—and maintaining its projection for a single rate cut this year. Chair Jerome Powell flagged “unusually uncertain” prospects, citing the Iran war. By Friday, futures markets assigned about a 25% probability to a rate hike before December. Reuters
The week’s losses piled up in stages. Spot gold started at $4,993.42 on Monday, slid to $4,860.21 after the Fed’s move Wednesday, and then tumbled 4.3% Thursday to $4,612.21—marking a low not seen since early February. By Friday, prices sank further after Reuters, quoting three U.S. officials, reported Washington was sending more marines and sailors to the Middle East.
Daniel Ghali at TD Securities flagged that the trade propping up gold through the last year is losing steam, warning there’s still “risk to the downside” in the near term. Gold’s been acting more like “a risky asset,” according to independent metals trader Tai Wong, who thinks a period of stabilization could be coming. Still, after this week’s drop, he said, “it will be a bumpy ride.” Reuters
Precious metals took a hit across the board. Spot silver dropped 4.8% Friday, landing at $69.39. Platinum gave up 0.9% to settle at $1,953.18, while palladium declined 1.6% to $1,423.59. The rest of the complex didn’t escape the pressure either.
Equities didn’t escape the rout. Toronto’s materials sector sank over 5% Thursday, while gold miners lost 6% as bullion slid—evidence of just how fast the reversal hit producer shares.
India’s gold dealers trimmed discounts to $75 an ounce from $83 last week, with buyers returning for festival purchases after prices slid. In China, premiums slipped as well, moving from $20-$30 down to $10-$22. Bargain hunters stepped in, but sentiment remained muted.
Investor flows mirrored the trend. Global investors yanked roughly $5.19 billion from gold and precious-metals commodity funds in the week ending March 18, according to LSEG Lipper figures reported by Reuters. That’s the biggest weekly outflow from this group since at least August 2018.
Oil could flip the narrative here. “Expectations for a rate cut are fading fast,” said Robert Pavlik of Dakota Wealth. Should supply worries around the Strait of Hormuz ease and crude prices drop, some of this week’s hawkish bets might get reversed. Otherwise, Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s signal—that the conflict could drag on “much more protracted”—keeps bullion vulnerable to more days of high yields and a sturdy dollar. Reuters
Gold has dropped over 10% since the war kicked off on Feb. 28. Next week, traders will be watching not just the fighting but also oil prices—if crude stays elevated, that could keep rate cuts sidelined.
