Gold prices started the week firm on Monday, 15 December 2025, extending a multi-day upswing as the U.S. dollar hovered near a two‑month low and Treasury yields eased ahead of a crucial backlog of U.S. economic releases. The precious metal is once again within striking distance of its October record, keeping traders focused on whether this week’s data and central-bank decisions will push XAU/USD into fresh highs—or trigger a year‑end pullback.
Gold price today: where spot and futures are trading on 15.12.2025
In early trading, spot gold climbed 1% to $4,344.40 an ounce by 06:56 GMT, while U.S. gold futures rose 1.1% to $4,377.40. [1]
Pricing snapshots from major market trackers showed gold holding around the same zone:
- Investing.com listed the XAU/USD exchange rate at 4,348.43, with a daily range of 4,300.12–4,349.16 and the 52‑week range at 2,583.49–4,381.60. [2]
- On the futures side, Investing.com showed gold futures around 4,379.60, with the day’s range 4,324.90–4,382.45and a 52‑week high of 4,398.00. [3]
Gold’s recent strength matters because it’s not just a bounce: Reuters noted bullion hit its highest since 21 October on Friday, and markets have been treating dips as buying opportunities. [4]
Why gold is moving today: the three drivers behind the 15 December pop
1) A softer dollar and slightly lower yields are doing the heavy lifting
Gold is typically most comfortable when the dollar and yields fall together—because a weaker greenback makes dollar‑priced bullion cheaper for non‑U.S. buyers, and lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non‑interest‑bearing asset.
That setup was visible again on Monday: Reuters reported the dollar near a two‑month low and 10‑year U.S. yields edging lower, both supportive for bullion. [5]
2) Fed policy expectations are still bullish for bullion—even after the “pause” talk
Markets remain laser-focused on the Federal Reserve’s trajectory after last week’s 25-basis-point rate cut, which Reuters described as a rare split decision, alongside signals that the Fed may pause because inflation remains sticky and the labour outlook is uncertain. [6]
That nuance is important for gold:
- If traders believe the Fed is done cutting, yields can stabilize or rise—often pressuring gold.
- If traders believe the Fed will need to cut more than officials currently signal, gold tends to benefit.
Reuters also highlighted that investors were pricing in two rate cuts next year, with this week’s jobs report seen as a major test of those expectations. [7]
3) The week’s “data backlog” and central-bank calendar is raising event risk
Gold is heading into one of the most event‑heavy weeks of the year:
- A U.S. government shutdown delayed key data, and Reuters said jobs and inflation releases are set to resume. [8]
- FXStreet similarly flagged a full U.S. docket—including payrolls and CPI—and emphasized that the delayed prints could shape how markets judge the Fed’s recent cuts. [9]
- Major central banks are also on deck this week (including the ECB, BOE and BOJ), adding another layer of volatility through currency moves and shifts in global rate expectations. [10]
In short: gold has a strong macro tailwind and a packed catalyst calendar—often a recipe for sharp moves.
What analysts are watching: can gold break into the $4,380–$4,440 zone?
A key reason gold traders are fixated on this week is that price is approaching an area that has acted like a “ceiling” since October.
Reuters quoted OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong saying gold is likely to remain well bid into the nonfarm payrolls release, and that a supportive read could help drive a push toward $4,380–$4,440 after a rebound from a $4,243 support zone. [11]
That aligns with where broader market commentary has placed the “line in the sand”:
- Reuters’ global markets wrap noted gold was extending a rally toward a record high of $4,381.21. [12]
- Saxo Bank’s 15 December market note described gold as trading less than 1% below its October record high near $4,380, saying Friday’s dip drew fresh buying interest. [13]
Short-term gold price forecast: levels traders are using on 15.12.2025
Several daily and weekly technical outlooks published on 15 December converged on a similar map:
- Support clustered around $4,300 (a psychological level and a widely cited near-term floor) and then the $4,250–$4,260 zone. [14]
- Resistance showed up around $4,353–$4,355, with an upside target zone into roughly $4,395, and then the record-area band near $4,380–$4,400. [15]
FXEmpire’s 15 December forecast put it plainly: gold was holding $4,300 support and “eyes” $4,355–$4,395 as the next upside zone in the near term. [16]
FXStreet’s 15 December note similarly framed the move as gold rising to seven‑week highs near $4,350, supported by rate‑cut expectations and safe‑haven flows, with traders waiting for the next push from U.S. labour data. [17]
The biggest catalyst: delayed U.S. jobs and inflation data (and why it matters for gold)
Today’s gold rally isn’t happening in a vacuum—markets are positioning ahead of data that can swing rate expectations quickly.
Both Reuters and FXStreet highlighted that markets are now awaiting the Nonfarm Payrolls report (with delayed prints for prior months), while attention later in the week shifts to U.S. CPI—the combination most likely to reprice the Fed path. [18]
FXStreet’s “week ahead” analysis laid out the binary risk clearly: if delayed data shows inflation is hotter and jobs stronger than expected, markets could question whether the Fed cuts were the right call—potentially creating a volatility spike that can also drive haven demand for gold. [19]
A structural tailwind: India opens the door wider to institutional gold exposure
Beyond daily macro headlines, one policy change is adding a longer-duration bid: India’s move to permit pension funds to invest in gold and silver ETFs.
Reuters reported that the regulatory change could lift institutional participation, and ANZ said such rules can “boost confidence” and support higher allocations across portfolios. [20]
FXEmpire also pointed to the same development as a constructive factor for precious metals demand. [21]
Silver’s surge is part of the story—and it’s influencing the broader metals complex
Gold’s rally is also happening alongside extraordinary moves in silver, which has been one of 2025’s standout trades.
On Monday, Reuters put spot silver up 2% to $63.23, after it hit a record $64.65 on Friday. [22]
That silver strength matters for gold because flows often move through the metals complex together. Earlier in the month, Reuters quoted an analyst noting that silver momentum was pulling gold (and other precious metals) higher. [23]
Bigger picture: where major forecasts say gold could go next
Even with gold already near the top of its recent range, Wall Street and institutional research remains broadly constructive about 2026—though the “how” and “how fast” differ.
Here are some of the most-cited outlooks circulating into year‑end:
- UBS: In a 20 November note covered by Investing.com, UBS raised its mid‑2026 forecast to $4,500/oz and lifted its upside case to $4,900/oz, citing continued investor and central‑bank demand and ongoing macro and geopolitical support. [24]
- Morgan Stanley: Reuters reported Morgan Stanley sees gold potentially reaching $4,500/oz by mid‑2026, with support from ETF demand and central‑bank buying as rates decline. [25]
- Goldman Sachs / Business Insider: Business Insider summarized Goldman’s view that limited U.S. gold ownership leaves room for meaningful upside, with a cited forecast of $4,900 by end‑2026 if private investment increases alongside central bank demand. [26]
- Citi (scenario framing): A Citi research transcript published in early December described a bull-case scenario in which gold reaches $5,000 by end‑2026 and $6,000 by end‑2027, while stressing that their baseline outlook was less aggressive and that positioning and macro outcomes matter. [27]
- World Gold Council: In its Gold Outlook 2026 report, the WGC said gold’s 2025 performance was driven by geopolitical and economic uncertainty, dollar weakness and momentum, while outlining a wide range of 2026 scenario outcomes—roughly from a 5%–20% decline in a reflationary outcome to 15%–30% upside in a severe downturn scenario. [28]
The takeaway for readers: the base case across institutions is not “gold collapses”—it’s either consolidation near elevated levels or continued upside if growth slows, inflation stays sticky, or geopolitics deteriorate. The main bearish scenario tends to be a combination of stronger growth, higher rates and a stronger dollar—exactly the mix that upcoming U.S. data and central bank decisions could begin to signal.
What to watch next if you follow gold prices daily
If you’re tracking gold price today (15.12.2025) and trying to understand what comes next, these are the near-term signposts:
- U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls / labour data: Softer numbers can reinforce rate‑cut expectations and support gold; hotter numbers can lift yields and the dollar. [29]
- U.S. CPI inflation: Another catalyst for rate expectations and real yields—often the most direct macro lever on gold. [30]
- Central bank tone (ECB/BOE/BOJ): Currency moves can be as important as rates for gold, especially when the dollar is already soft. [31]
- Key price levels: Support near $4,300; resistance around $4,350–$4,400, then $4,440 as a higher target zone cited by analysts. [32]
For now, the trend remains bullish: gold is holding above widely watched support while the market heads into a high‑stakes data week with the dollar still weak and yields capped. Whether this turns into a clean break to new highs—or a volatility-driven shakeout—likely hinges on how Tuesday’s labour prints and Thursday’s inflation numbers reshape the Fed narrative.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.fxstreet.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.home.saxo, 14. www.fxempire.com, 15. www.fxempire.com, 16. www.fxempire.com, 17. www.fxstreet.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.fxstreet.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.fxempire.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. markets.businessinsider.com, 27. www.citigroup.com, 28. www.gold.org, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. za.investing.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com
