New York, January 29, 2026, 06:08 ET — Premarket
- Spot gold rose 2.2% to $5,516.71/oz after touching a record $5,594.82
- Safe-haven demand stayed firm as U.S.-Iran tensions and a soft dollar kept investors defensive
- Traders look to U.S. trade data at 8:30 a.m. ET and signals on the next Fed chair
Gold prices pushed to a fresh record near $5,600 an ounce on Thursday, extending a month-long surge that has started to look less like a rally and more like a stampede. Spot gold rose 2.2% to $5,516.71 an ounce by 4:47 a.m. ET, after touching a record $5,594.82 and marking a ninth straight session of fresh highs. U.S. February futures jumped 4% to $5,509.60 after a peak $5,626.80; bullion was set for a 28% January rise and is up more than 27% in 2026, with SPDR Gold Trust saying holdings climbed to 35,043,181 ounces, the highest since May 2022. “Gold’s perfect storm continues,” said Jamie Dutta at Nemo.money, while ActivTrades analyst Ricardo Evangelista said the metal could “move towards $7,000 by year-end” after a pause. (Reuters)
The tone shifted quickly over the last day. On Wednesday, spot gold was up about 4% at $5,393.19 late in New York trading as buyers kept leaning into the move even after the Fed held rates. Peter Grant at Zaner Metals said the rally has “taken on a life of its own,” and traders have started talking about it being overbought — shorthand for a rise so sharp that it can correct. Tai Wong said metals “don’t care that the Fed is clearly in hiatus mode,” while crypto group Tether said it plans to shift 10%-15% of its portfolio into physical gold; Standard Chartered warned some silver signals are “due a correction in the short term.” (Reuters)
The Fed, for its part, left its benchmark rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range on Wednesday. Chair Jerome Powell said the economy had “surprised us with its strength” and described the central bank as “well-positioned” to wait, even as two governors dissented in favor of a quarter-point cut. Michael Pearce, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote that he expects an extended pause, with markets leaning toward the next cut in June and another in September; Trump’s pick to replace Powell is expected to be confirmed in time to lead the June 16-17 meeting. (Reuters)
In its statement, the Fed said economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace, job gains have remained low and inflation is “somewhat elevated.” (Federal Reserve)
Geopolitics has done the rest. Trump told Iran to accept a nuclear deal or the next U.S. attack would be “far worse” than last year’s strikes, and a U.S. naval force led by the USS Abraham Lincoln is moving toward the region. Iranian officials threatened retaliation against the U.S., Israel and their allies if attacked, while also saying they were open to a fair agreement that respects Iran’s rights to peaceful nuclear technology. (Reuters)
Risk appetite has thinned elsewhere, too. The Conference Board said U.S. consumer confidence fell sharply in January to its lowest level since 2014, with the expectations gauge sinking further into territory economists watch as a recession warning. (AP News)
The move has bled into other metals, adding to the sense that investors are treating hard assets as a refuge. Copper has also ripped higher this month, while silver has tagged fresh records, helped by the same mix of dollar weakness and headline risk. Some analysts have warned that positioning is doing more of the work than physical demand, which can make the trade fragile if sentiment turns. (Financial Times)
But gold’s vertical move leaves it exposed if headlines cool or the dollar finds a floor. A sharp rise in real yields — inflation-adjusted interest rates — would also test buyers, because it raises the opportunity cost of holding an asset that pays no interest.
With U.S. equity markets still hours from the opening bell, traders will parse U.S. trade data for November due at 8:30 a.m. ET for clues on growth and the dollar’s direction. The BEA calendar also shows the advance estimate of fourth-quarter GDP on Feb. 20, alongside December personal income and spending, both potential swing points for rate-cut bets. (Bureau of Economic Analysis)
The next big read on the labor market comes with the Employment Situation report for January on Feb. 10. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
For bullion, it is still the same mix: Iran headlines, the Fed chair decision, and whether the dollar keeps sliding. After that, the question is whether a month-long sprint turns into something steadier — or a nasty pullback.
