Gold prices stayed elevated on Thursday, December 18, 2025, as traders digested a cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation print, monitored central-bank decisions in Europe, and weighed whether record-setting momentum can extend into 2026.
At 1:56 p.m. New York time, Kitco’s quoted gold bid price was $4,326.50 per ounce, showing a modest pullback on the day after another volatile session around multi-year—and in some markets, all‑time—highs. [1]
Gold price today: where bullion is trading right now
Gold has spent much of this week consolidating above the psychologically important $4,300 area, even as intraday swings remain large by historical standards.
- Gold at 1:56 p.m. ET:$4,326.50/oz (bid) (Kitco) [2]
- Earlier spot pricing: Reuters reported spot gold around $4,333/oz and U.S. gold futures near $4,364/oz during Thursday’s session, as the market held on to Wednesday’s gains. [3]
- Day’s range (spot feed): Kitco’s spot page showed a low near $4,308 and a high near $4,375 on December 18 (timestamps in U.S. Eastern time). [4]
One reason gold headlines can look inconsistent across platforms: spot vs. futures, differing data feeds, and bid/ask spreads can all produce slightly different “gold price today” numbers at the same moment—especially on a high-volatility day.
The big driver on 18 Dec 2025: U.S. CPI finally lands—and it’s cooler than expected
Thursday’s key catalyst was the delayed U.S. Consumer Price Index report.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that CPI rose 2.7% year-over-year in November 2025, while core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 2.6%. The release was unusual because BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025 due to a lapse in appropriations, meaning the report includes changes measured over the two months from September to November. [5]
Market reaction matched the classic gold playbook:
- Cooling inflation tends to support expectations for easier monetary policy.
- Easier policy can mean lower real yields and reduced opportunity cost for holding a non-yielding asset like gold.
Investopedia’s market wrap noted that gold futures set a fresh all-time high above $4,400/oz after the CPI surprise, before easing back toward the mid‑$4,300s later in the session. [6]
Fed rate-cut expectations remain the backbone of the gold bid
Even before CPI, gold was being supported by a steady drumbeat of rate-cut expectations.
Reuters reported that gold held gains after dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, including commentary from Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicating cuts could continue amid a cooling job market. Reuters also noted the Fed has delivered three rate cuts in 2025, with markets expecting two more in 2026—a backdrop that generally improves gold’s relative appeal. [7]
Just as important: Thursday’s CPI did not appear to “re-ignite” inflation fears in a way that would force a hawkish repricing—keeping the macro runway intact for bullion.
Global central banks: ECB holds, BoE cuts—currency and yield signals matter for gold
Gold’s price is never only about U.S. data. On December 18, Europe delivered two major policy signals with implications for currencies, yields, and cross‑asset positioning.
ECB holds rates unchanged
The European Central Bank said on December 18 that it kept its three key interest rates unchanged, reiterating that inflation is expected to stabilize around the 2% target over the medium term. [8]
Even when the ECB is on hold, the decision can still influence gold through:
- EUR/USD moves (a stronger euro often corresponds with a softer dollar, which can support gold priced in USD), and
- European bond yields, which affect global rate spreads and portfolio hedging behavior.
Bank of England cuts rates to 3.75%
In the UK, the Bank of England cut its key rate from 4% to 3.75% on December 18 in a closely split decision, according to reporting from AP. [9]
For gold investors, another major central bank leaning toward easing reinforces the broader narrative: the global policy cycle is tilting away from restrictive settings, even if the pace and path remain contested.
Precious-metals complex: silver stays hot, platinum and palladium add fuel
Gold is not moving in isolation. Precious metals have been in a powerful 2025 upswing, and Thursday’s tape reflected that continued cross-market energy:
- Reuters said silver hovered near record highs, up sharply year-to-date and buoyed by industrial demand and tightening supply themes. [10]
- Reuters also cited strength in platinum (near a 17-year high) and palladium (near multi-year highs), reinforcing the “broad complex” nature of the move. [11]
This matters because when multiple precious metals rally together, gold often benefits from:
- broader commodity-portfolio reallocation,
- higher attention from macro funds, and
- stronger momentum signals across correlated markets.
Today’s standout gold-related headlines beyond price: Australia and Thailand
Gold’s rally is now large enough to reshape policy and trade discussions—two stories from December 18 highlight that shift.
Australia: “gold bonanza” lifts export earnings forecasts
Reuters reported that Australia revised expected resource export earnings up 4% to A$383 billion for FY2025–26, citing record-high gold prices, steady iron ore, and a softer Australian dollar. Reuters added that gold is projected to become Australia’s second most valuable export after iron ore, with forecast gold export earnings rising to A$69 billion in 2025–26 and A$74 billion in 2026–27. [12]
Thailand: central bank proposes tighter oversight on gold trades
Reuters also reported that Thailand’s central bank proposed stricter oversight and controls on gold trades aimed at curbing volatility in the baht, highlighting how large gold flows can spill over into currency markets. [13]
The takeaway: gold is no longer “just” a financial-market story. At these price levels, it increasingly influences trade balances, FX dynamics, and policymaker risk management.
Gold forecasts and outlook: what analysts are saying heading into 2026
With gold holding in the mid‑$4,300s, the market’s big question has shifted from “Why is gold up?” to “How high can it go—and how violent could the swings be?”
$5,000 gold is now a mainstream 2026 target in some forecasts
A BullionVault analysis published December 18 said 2026 forecasts put gold at $5,000 per ounce, noting that a year of outsized gains has forced analysts to “chase” the price higher and reassess assumptions. The piece also referenced expectations that major institutions and consultancies see a path to $5,000 in 2026, while warning that forecasts could become overly optimistic after a year that surprised the market. [14]
A range-based view: consolidation versus another leg up
For a more scenario-driven framing, State Street Global Advisors (in a December 2025 outlook) argued the 2025 surge may moderate in 2026, with gold potentially consolidating in a $4,000–$4,500 base case range—but also outlined an upside scenario where gold could still reach $4,500–$5,000 if supportive macro and allocation trends persist. [15]
While forecasts differ, most current analyses cluster around the same core drivers:
- the direction of real yields,
- the speed of Fed (and global) easing,
- central bank and ETF flows, and
- geopolitical and fiscal-risk hedging demand.
Technical outlook: the key levels traders are watching after CPI
Price action on December 18 also sharpened the technical debate: is gold pausing before another breakout, or topping out after an extreme run?
A technical analysis from FXEmpire highlighted several widely watched levels:
- Resistance: around $4,353.56, with a potential path toward $4,381.44 (noted as a record high level in that analysis) if price breaks cleanly. [16]
- Support: a pivot near $4,258.68, with additional downside levels around $4,192.36 and a broader trend marker near the 50‑day moving average (~$4,140). [17]
In plain English: as long as gold holds above the low‑$4,200s to $4,300 area, trend followers will argue the uptrend remains intact—while repeated failures near the mid‑$4,350s keep the risk of a deeper pullback on the table.
What to watch next for gold prices
Gold’s next move is likely to hinge on whether “cooling inflation + easing expectations” remains the dominant narrative into year‑end positioning.
Key items on the calendar and radar:
- Next CPI release timing: BLS said the CPI report for December 2025 is scheduled for January 13, 2026 (8:30 a.m. ET). [18]
- Central bank guidance drift: With the ECB holding and the BoE cutting, currency moves and rate spreads could continue to influence gold in USD terms. [19]
- Volatility risk: After a year of steep gains, even bullish analysts increasingly warn about sharp pullbacks—especially around liquidity events, positioning extremes, and headline-driven macro days. [20]
References
1. online.kitco.com, 2. online.kitco.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.kitco.com, 5. www.bls.gov, 6. www.investopedia.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.ecb.europa.eu, 9. apnews.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.bullionvault.com, 15. www.ssga.com, 16. www.fxempire.com, 17. www.fxempire.com, 18. www.bls.gov, 19. www.ecb.europa.eu, 20. www.bullionvault.com
