Gold Price Today (Dec. 16, 2025, 2:15 PM EST): Gold Holds Near $4,308 as Jobs, Retail Sales and PMI Data Shake the Dollar

Gold is back in the spotlight on Tuesday, December 16, 2025, after a volatile session that saw prices dip below key psychological levels and then rebound as markets digested a delayed U.S. jobs report, softer business-activity data, and a mixed read on consumer spending.

As of around 2:15 p.m. EST, spot gold was trading near $4,308 per ounce, with today’s range roughly $4,271 to $4,336—a wide intraday swing that underscores how sensitive the metal remains to shifting expectations for interest rates, the U.S. dollar, and safe-haven demand. ^[1]

Gold price today: Where spot gold and futures stand now

Mid-afternoon in New York, spot gold is hovering just above the $4,300 level, one of the market’s most watched round-number pivots. Kitco’s live pricing showed spot gold near $4,308/oz and confirmed the day’s broad trading band, which has stretched from the low $4,270s to the mid $4,330s. ^[2]

In U.S. futures, Reuters reported that U.S. gold futures settled around $4,332.3, while spot gold was about $4,310earlier in the afternoon—both figures consistent with a market that’s choppy but still trading near recent highs. ^[3]

The key takeaway for investors: gold isn’t trending smoothly right now—it’s reacting aggressively to every major macro headline, especially anything that influences rate-cut expectations and the U.S. dollar.

Why gold moved today: The market’s three-way tug-of-war

Today’s price action reflects a classic push-and-pull between:

Lower yields / a softer dollar (bullish for gold)
Resilient pockets of U.S. demand (can limit rate-cut urgency)
Geopolitical headlines that can quickly switch “safe-haven” flows on or off

That tug-of-war showed up clearly in the intraday tape: Reuters noted gold slipped earlier in the session (including a move below $4,300) as traders positioned ahead of key releases, before later stabilizing and rebounding. ^[4]

The delayed U.S. jobs report: Cooler labor signals, but not a collapse

A major driver today was the delayed U.S. employment data (released late because of the government shutdown). FXStreet summarized the report as mixed: November payrolls came in around +64,000, while October showed a large negative print (about -105,000), reflecting distortions tied to the shutdown. ^[5]

Crucially for gold, the unemployment rate moved up to 4.6%, a level markets quickly interpreted as evidence of a cooling labor market—supportive of the idea that the Federal Reserve can keep easing in 2026. ^[6]

At the same time, the “not a collapse” part matters: some market commentary highlighted that hiring wasn’t as weak as feared, which is why the post-data move in gold included both a surge and a pullback as traders reassessed how fast the Fed can cut. ^[7]

Retail sales: Headline flat, but “core” spending stayed firm

Gold also reacted to a delayed U.S. retail sales report that complicated the picture.

Reuters reported that headline retail sales were flat in October, missing forecasts for a small rise. But a key underlying measure—often called “core retail sales” (excluding categories that can swing sharply)—rose strongly. ^[8]

FXStreet echoed that mixed implication: the “flat headline” can support the case for easier policy, but the stronger underlying spending can temper how quickly markets price aggressive cuts—creating the kind of two-way volatility gold traders saw today. ^[9]

PMI data: A fresh signal the U.S. growth burst may be slowing

Gold bulls also got support from the latest S&P Global flash PMI data.

FXStreet reported that:

Manufacturing PMI eased to 51.8
Services PMI eased to 52.9
The Composite PMI slipped to 53.0, still expansionary but slower than November ^[10]

Importantly for gold, FXStreet also noted the U.S. Dollar Index remained under pressure after the PMI release—another tailwind for XAU/USD, since gold is dollar-priced. ^[11]

The dollar and yields: A supportive backdrop for bullion

With jobs, retail, and PMI data all hitting the tape on the same day, the broader market response mattered as much as the headlines themselves.

Barchart’s market commentary pointed to a weaker dollar index—down on the day and sliding to a multi-month low—arguing that “Fed-friendly” economic reports were bolstering the outlook for continued easing. ^[12]

BullionVault added another layer: it argued gold has been able to rally even with elevated real yields, framing 2025 as a year when gold’s traditional sensitivity to real rates has been less reliable than in prior cycles. ^[13]

Geopolitics: Peace-talk optimism can cap safe-haven demand—until it doesn’t

Geopolitical headlines were a counterweight to the “lower yields, weaker dollar” story.

FXStreet pointed to reports of progress in U.S.-led Russia–Ukraine talks, suggesting that optimism around diplomacy can modestly reduce safe-haven flows into gold (at least temporarily). ^[14]

At the same time, another FXStreet update emphasized that uncertainty persists—and that shifting peace-talk headlines can quickly flip gold from “macro trade” to “safe-haven trade” intraday. ^[15]

What analysts said today: Consolidation, not complacency

Several same-day analyses converged on the same theme: gold is strong, but extended—so pullbacks are increasingly part of the path higher.

FXStreet described gold rebounding from a low near $4,271 and trading around the low $4,300s, while noting repeated friction around $4,350—a zone traders are treating as near-term resistance. ^[16]
A later FXStreet update said gold spiked toward $4,335 before reversing and trading back below $4,300, capturing the “headline-driven whipsaw” feel of today’s market. ^[17]
FXEmpire argued gold remains choppy near the top of a long-standing channel and flagged the potential for a deeper correction toward $4,200, while still viewing the broader uptrend as intact. ^[18]

That mix is important: even bullish analysts are increasingly talking about consolidation phases—not because the long-term case is broken, but because the 2025 rally has been so large that positioning and profit-taking matter more day-to-day.

Gold price forecast: Fresh 2026 calls now cluster between $4,800 and $5,400

Today wasn’t only about the next tick. December 16 also delivered a cluster of 2026 forecasts that help frame where institutional expectations are drifting.

Morgan Stanley: $4,800/oz by Q4 2026

Reuters reported Morgan Stanley expects slower gains in 2026, but still projects gold reaching $4,800/oz by the fourth quarter, citing factors such as expected rate cuts and a weaker dollar supporting momentum. ^[19]

BullionVault / MKS PAMP strategist: a potential 2026 high near $5,400

BullionVault reported a 2026 outlook from MKS PAMP strategist Nicky Shiels projecting a potential gold high around $5,400 next year, tying the bull case to a “GeoMacro regime change” narrative and a longer-run “debasement cycle” framing. ^[20]

Reuters: scenario-based upside if 2025 closes strong

Reuters also highlighted a scenario-style outlook from Allegiance Gold: if gold finishes 2025 above a key threshold, the firm sees potential for a higher 2026 range (presented as conditional, not guaranteed). ^[21]

ANZ: above $5,000 in 2026

A separate market forecast circulating today pointed to ANZ expecting gold could move above $5,000/oz in 2026, largely tied to the outlook for easier policy and ongoing demand dynamics. ^[22]

Taken together, these forecasts show a market where the “next big figure” debate has shifted from $4,000 to $5,000—with many strategists now treating $5,000 as plausible under the right macro conditions.

Technical levels traders are watching right now (XAU/USD)

Even long-term investors are paying attention to short-term levels because gold is trading at historically high prices where volatility can be amplified.

Based on today’s reporting and analysis, the levels most frequently mentioned include:

$4,300: psychological pivot and a frequent “line in the sand” for intraday sentiment ^[23]
~$4,271: today’s major intraday low area (Europe session low) ^[24]
$4,335–$4,336: the session’s upper zone where rallies met resistance ^[25]
$4,350 area: a repeated rejection zone flagged in analysis ^[26]
$4,200: a “deeper correction” level highlighted as plausible support in technical commentary ^[27]
$4,400: a breakout trigger level some analysts view as the gateway to the next leg higher ^[28]

What happens next: CPI, PCE, and central bank decisions

The next catalysts are stacked—and that’s why gold traders are reluctant to get complacent.

Reuters noted the market is watching incoming inflation data closely, including CPI and PCE, for confirmation on whether the Fed will be comfortable delivering additional cuts in 2026. ^[29]

Meanwhile, FXEmpire highlighted that major central bank decisions later this week (including the Bank of England, ECB, and BoJ) could add to cross-asset volatility—especially through the dollar and global yield channels that frequently spill over into gold. ^[30]

Bottom line: Gold remains strong—just not in a straight line

At 2:15 p.m. EST on Dec. 16, 2025, gold is still trading near record territory around $4,308/oz, but the path is increasingly defined by two-way swings as markets reprice the pace of 2026 rate cuts based on each new data point. ^[31]

If the dollar stays under pressure and inflation continues to cool, the bullish longer-term forecasts being published today (from $4,800 to $5,400) become easier for the market to justify. If inflation proves sticky—or if risk sentiment flips hard—gold may see more frequent pullbacks toward major support levels before it attempts another breakout.

This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.