BENGALURU, March 12, 2026, 22:54 (IST)
Spot gold eased 0.3% to $5,159.04 an ounce as of 10:08 a.m. ET on Thursday, while U.S. gold futures slipped the same margin to $5,165.10. Pressure came from a stronger dollar and receding expectations for U.S. rate cuts, tamping down the metal’s safe-haven draw.
Gold’s caught in a tug-of-war. On one side, renewed assaults on Gulf shipping gave Brent crude a shove past $100 a barrel, bond yields rose, and the dollar firmed up. Monica Guerra, who leads U.S. policy at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, flagged the risk: stubbornly high oil could “mean a higher fed funds rate for longer”—not exactly ideal for gold, which normally draws buyers fleeing market turmoil. Reuters
Then there’s inflation, which hasn’t disappeared. U.S. consumer prices climbed 0.3% in February, putting the annual increase at 2.4%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, nudged up 0.2% for the month. That kind of data is exactly what keeps the Federal Reserve cautious on rate cuts — and with rates still elevated, gold offers zero yield.
Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist over at Zaner Metals, described the market as “push-and-pull”—torn between haven demand spurred by war and ongoing concerns that interest rates might remain elevated. Reuters
The retreat follows a rapid surge. JPMorgan last month stuck to its $6,300 end-2026 target after boosting its long-term outlook, and Bank of America outlined a potential move to $6,000 within a year. Spot gold had already reached a record $5,594.82 on Jan. 29.
Equities aren’t immune. On Thursday, Toronto’s materials sector dropped 1.7%—gold miners were hit as bullion slipped. Rising crude gave energy stocks a boost, helping to cap losses across the broader market.
Even so, miners are heading into this downturn with wider margins compared to last year. Harmony Gold reported Wednesday that its half-year profit climbed 13%, while the interim dividend jumped more than twofold. Higher bullion prices managed to balance out weaker production and grades.
If oil keeps stoking inflation and yields edge up, gold could face more pressure. “The inflation risk is greater than the labor market risk” at the moment, PNC’s Gus Faucher said. Futures traders have now pushed their bets for the Fed’s first rate cut back to September, with a second cut almost out of the picture for this year. Still, a Reuters poll of economists clings to June as the likely start date, setting up bullion for another sharp move in either direction. Reuters
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