Gold Price Today in the US (December 1, 2025): Spot Gold Near $4,250 as Wall Street Eyes $5,000 in 2026

New York – December 1, 2025

Gold prices in the United States are starting December on a powerful note, trading back near record territory as investors bet heavily on imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts and continue to seek shelter from political and economic uncertainty.

As of early Monday, December 1, live bullion data from US dealer JM Bullion showed spot gold around $4,257 per troy ounce, up about 2% on the day and roughly 60% over the past 12 months. ^[1] Parallel quotes from global price trackers and Asian market coverage put spot prices in the $4,230–$4,260 range, confirming that gold has reclaimed levels seen near its October records. ^[2]

On the futures side, Comex gold for front-month delivery was recently trading near $4,276 per ounce, with today’s intraday range roughly $4,243–$4,292, and a 12‑month gain of about 61%, according to real‑time and historical data from Investing.com. ^[3] That leaves US gold futures close to the top of their 52‑week band between about $2,586 and $4,398. ^[4]

1. Gold price today in the US: snapshot and context

Spot gold (XAU/USD) in early US trade

Spot price: about $4,230–$4,260 per ounce in US dollars
Day move: roughly +0.5% to +2%, depending on the time of quote and venue ^[5]
1‑year performance: around +60% for both physical bullion and futures contracts ^[6]

JM Bullion’s live pricing page shows spot gold at $4,256.98 per ounce at 03:57 a.m. ET, with gold up about $86.54(2.03%) over the previous session and per‑gram and per‑kilo prices at $136.87 and $136,865, respectively. ^[7]

TradingEconomics’ commodity dashboard likewise reports gold near $4,246 per ounce, the highest level since October 2025, with a 6% gain over the last four weeks and a 12‑month increase above 60%. ^[8]

US gold futures

On the derivatives side:

Gold futures price (GC): about $4,276 per ounce, up ~0.5% on the day
Day’s range: roughly $4,242.55–$4,291.50 ^[9]
12‑month gain: approximately +61.5% for front‑month gold futures ^[10]

Historical data for December 1 show Comex gold futures closing near $4,279, after an intraday high close to $4,292 and a low around $4,250, with volume just under 78,000 contracts. ^[11]

2. Why is gold rallying again on December 1, 2025?

2.1 Fed rate‑cut bets are back in focus

The single biggest driver of today’s strength is renewed conviction that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December.

A Reuters report late last week noted that traders now assign around an 85% probability to a December rate cut, up sharply from about 30% just a week earlier, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. ^[12] Softer US retail sales, weaker consumer confidence and signs of labour‑market stress have pushed investors toward safe‑haven assets like gold and away from riskier plays. ^[13]

In IG’s “Market Navigator” published on December 1, gold is highlighted as having “bounced back above $4,200 per ounce” after an 11% drawdown in October, helped by expectations for a December Fed cut and a drop in the US 10‑year Treasury yield below 4%. The report also notes a weaker dollar index around 99.4, historically a supportive backdrop for bullion. ^[14]

Because gold does not pay interest, lower policy rates – and lower bond yields – reduce the opportunity cost of holding bullion, making it relatively more attractive in diversified portfolios.

2.2 Risk‑off sentiment and geopolitical uncertainty

A separate Reuters‑based update, carried by multiple outlets on Monday, described gold as steady near a six‑week higharound $4,235 per ounce for spot and $4,269 for US futures, with risk‑off sentiment in equities and lingering geopolitical tensions encouraging investors to rotate into safe‑haven metals. ^[15]

This fits a pattern seen throughout 2025: whenever markets are hit by a combination of:

Political frictions and tariff shocks
Government shutdown headlines
Concerns about the durability of US growth

gold tends to spike as a perceived hedge against both market volatility and policy uncertainty. Reports through October and November repeatedly linked record highs in bullion with mounting worries over US politics, tariffs and global trade frictions. ^[16]

2.3 Central bank buying and ETF inflows

Another powerful theme running through today’s analysis is relentless central bank demand and revived investment flows into gold‑backed ETFs.

The Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank research cited by Reuters both attribute a large portion of 2025’s rally to central bank accumulation and ETF inflows, alongside expectations of lower interest rates. ^[17]
Business Insider’s November 26 piece notes that central banks have been diversifying away from US dollar reserves, with Russia’s frozen reserves after the Ukraine invasion often cited as a catalyst for greater reliance on physical gold held domestically. ^[18]

IG’s December 1 market note adds that net ETF flows turned positive again from mid‑November, reinforcing the recovery in prices after October’s sharp correction. ^[19]

2.4 Structural drivers: inflation, dollar and macro “regime change”

JM Bullion’s education section offers a concise summary of the structural factors that typically move gold prices:

Weaker US dollar → tends to boost gold
Higher inflation → encourages investors to hedge with hard assets
Lower interest rates → support non‑yielding assets like gold
Geopolitical risk & economic instability → increase safe‑haven demand
Central bank buying or selling → can amplify trends in either direction ^[20]

In 2025 most of those arrows are pointing the same way: a softening dollar, stubborn inflation, record public deficits, and political uncertainty have combined with aggressive central bank buying to create a near‑perfect environment for bullion.

3. How high is gold relative to history?

Gold’s current price is not just elevated – it’s brushing against all‑time highs.

On October 17, 2025, spot gold briefly hit around $4,378.69, a record intraday high, before settling just above $4,335. ^[21]
A Reuters analysis summarised by Morgan Stanley put the latest record close at $4,381.21 on October 20, noting that prices had already retreated more than 8% from that peak by late October. ^[22]
TradingEconomics data show gold now near $4,246, the highest level since October and roughly 60% higher than a year ago. ^[23]

Longer‑term performance is equally striking. JM Bullion’s ROI calculator estimates gold’s returns as roughly:

+60% over 1 year
+130%+ over 5 years
Nearly +300% over 10 years ^[24]

In other words, while today’s price is slightly below October’s record, gold in US dollars remains within a few percentage points of the highest levels ever recorded.

4. Wall Street gold price forecasts for 2026 and beyond

A wave of new forecasts published through October and November – and heavily referenced in today’s commentary – paints a strikingly bullish picture for gold through 2026, even after this year’s explosive run.

According to a roundup by Business Insider and detailed notes from Reuters and IG, major institutions now expect: ^[25]

Bank of America (BofA):
- Target of $5,000 per ounce in 2026, implying about 19% upside from late‑November levels.
- BofA argues that large US fiscal deficits and “unorthodox” macro policies should keep real yields and the dollar under pressure, extending gold’s bull market. ^[26]
Goldman Sachs:
- Sees gold reaching about $4,900 per ounce by the end of next year, around 17% above late‑November prices.
- Cites continued central bank diversification and expectations of roughly 75 basis points of Fed rate cutsover the next year, plus broader global monetary easing. ^[27]
Deutsche Bank:
- Base‑case 2026 year‑end forecast around $4,450, with an upside scenario up to $4,950. ^[28]
- Notes that investor flows into gold and ETFs have stabilised after earlier volatility and that technical indicators suggest a “completed positioning correction”.
Morgan Stanley:
- Projects gold could climb to around $4,500 per ounce by mid‑2026, emphasising ongoing ETF buying and central bank demand as rates decline. ^[29]
- Warns, however, that sharp price gains and “overbought” conditions raise the risk of volatility and temporary corrections. ^[30]
HSBC:
- Offers a more measured range of $3,600–$4,400 per ounce in 2026, still broadly above current 2025 averages but implying less upside than some rivals. ^[31]
- Highlights the risk that increasing mine supply and softer physical demand could cap gains if prices stay elevated for too long.

Business Insider summarises these views by noting that top forecasters see scope for another 20% rise in 2026, even after gold’s roughly 57% year‑to‑date rally by late November. ^[32]

Taken together, sell‑side and bank research is clustered in a relatively tight band:

Most major houses expect gold to remain above $4,000 in 2026,
with central scenarios between the mid‑$4,000s and around $5,000 per ounce.

5. Key downside risks for the gold price

Despite the bullish consensus, analysts are quick to stress that gold is not a one‑way trade, particularly at these elevated levels.

Commonly cited risks in today’s research and recent bank notes include: ^[33]

Fewer or smaller Fed cuts than expected
If inflation proves sticky or growth re‑accelerates, the Fed may cut less – or later – than markets currently price in. That would push US yields higher relative to expectations and could pressure gold lower.
Stronger US dollar
Gold is priced in dollars globally. A renewed USD rally, perhaps driven by better US data or political developments, tends to weigh on bullion prices.
Central banks slowing purchases
Several banks, including Deutsche Bank and HSBC, underline that central banks could moderate or pause their gold buying once prices remain well above $4,000, limiting further upside and potentially triggering pullbacks. ^[34]
Improved geopolitical backdrop
A meaningful easing of trade frictions, tariff disputes or regional conflicts could reduce safe‑haven demand and encourage investors to rotate back into equities and corporate bonds.
Technical overbought conditions and profit‑taking
With indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) flashing overbought at several points in October, analysts warn that even within a broader uptrend, gold could see sharp, short‑term corrections as traders lock in gains. ^[35]

6. What today’s gold price means for US investors

Important: The following is general market commentary, not personalized investment advice. Always consider your own circumstances and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

For US‑based investors, gold’s surge presents both opportunity and risk:

Portfolio hedge:
Gold continues to act as a hedge against inflation, currency debasement and political risk. With deficits high and policy uncertain, many institutions still view a modest allocation to gold as a diversification tool. ^[36]
Valuation question:
At prices above $4,200 per ounce and near its all‑time highs, gold is no longer “cheap” by historical standards. Long‑term holders may welcome the gains, but new buyers must accept that they are entering late in a mature bull market.
High volatility:
Recent moves – including double‑digit weekly rallies and 10%+ corrections – show that gold at these levels can be highly volatile. Futures and leveraged products amplify that risk further.
Vehicle choice matters:
Investors have multiple ways to gain exposure:
- Physical bullion (coins, bars, allocated storage)
- Gold‑backed ETFs
- Futures and options on Comex
- Gold‑mining equities and precious‑metal funds
Each carries different fees, liquidity characteristics, tax treatment and counterparty risks, as highlighted by CME Group and bullion dealers in their educational materials. ^[37]

Given today’s elevated levels and the wide dispersion of possible macro outcomes, analysts generally suggest that newcomers balance any gold exposure within a broader, diversified strategy, rather than treating bullion as a one‑way speculative bet.

7. FAQs: gold price in the US today

Is gold at an all‑time high in December 2025?

Not quite, but it’s close. Spot gold’s record intraday high is around $4,378–$4,381 per ounce, set in October 2025, and current prices in the mid‑$4,200s leave the metal just a few percent below that peak. ^[38]

Why did gold rise so much in 2025?

Major drivers include:

Aggressive central bank purchases
High inflation and fears of currency debasement
Expectations of Fed and global rate cuts
Geopolitical and trade tensions
Strong inflows into gold ETFs and other investment vehicles ^[39]

What is the gold price forecast for 2026?

Most large banks now expect gold to stay above $4,000 next year, with targets spanning roughly $4,400 to $5,000 per ounce:

BofA: up to $5,000
Goldman Sachs: about $4,900
Morgan Stanley: about $4,500 by mid‑2026
Deutsche Bank: base case $4,450, with upside to $4,950
HSBC: range $3,600–$4,400 ^[40]

These are forecasts, not guarantees, and all of them come with explicit downside risks.

Is now a good time to buy gold?

That depends entirely on your time horizon, risk tolerance, and overall portfolio. From a news perspective, gold is:

Trading near record highs
Supported by strong macro and policy tailwinds
Exposed to meaningful volatility and the risk of sharp pullbacks

Because those trade‑offs are personal, it makes sense to discuss any sizable gold allocation with a financial professional who understands your circumstances.