NEW YORK, January 5, 2026, 02:42 ET — Market closed
Gold price today rose about 2% in early trade on Monday on safe-haven demand — a shift into assets investors favour when uncertainty spikes — after U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in a weekend raid. Spot gold was last up 2% at $4,413.93 an ounce, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield nudged up to 4.179%. 1
Markets may have largely shrugged off the Venezuela action, but bullion caught a bid as investors assessed whether it signals a more aggressive shift in U.S. policy. Some investors warned geopolitical risks were being underestimated after President Donald Trump threatened further action in the Americas. 2
The focus now swings quickly back to U.S. rates, with the dollar rallying to multi-week highs as traders look to this week’s data for direction. Gold does not pay interest, so it typically fares best when investors expect lower borrowing costs. The data calendar starts with ISM manufacturing on Monday and ends with Friday’s non-farm payrolls report, while futures pricing shows traders expect two Fed rate cuts this year. 3
“Geopolitical uncertainty has become an integral part of the macro environment,” said David Chao, global market strategist for Asia-Pacific at Invesco in Singapore. 4
Oil prices slipped in early Asian trade as adequate global supply offset concern about disruptions, even with Venezuela an OPEC member. Trump said the U.S. embargo on Venezuelan oil remained in full effect after Maduro was detained in New York on Sunday, Reuters reported. 5
Spot gold rose 1.8% to $4,406.77 by 0508 GMT, and U.S. February futures gained 1.9% to $4,413.40, Reuters data showed. Bullion hit a record $4,549.71 on Dec. 26 after rising 64% in 2025 — its biggest annual gain since 1979 — helped by central bank buying, inflows into exchange-traded funds (which trade like stocks), and interest-rate cuts. Spot silver added 3.9% to $75.46, while platinum and palladium also gained. 6
But the rally leaves gold vulnerable if U.S. data surprise on the upside and push markets to price fewer Fed cuts, lifting yields and the dollar. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Anna Paulson said on Saturday that further rate cuts could be some way off as officials assess the economy’s performance. 7
Investors will watch the ISM factory survey later Monday and Friday’s payrolls report for the next steer on rate expectations, with attention also on Trump’s choice for the next Fed chair this month. For gold, the next move may come from a simple tug-of-war: headlines out of Venezuela versus the dollar. 8
