NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 12:14 p.m. ET — Market Closed
Gold is holding near historic highs heading into the final trading days of 2025, after a breakout week that pushed the metal decisively above the psychologically important $4,500 level and into fresh record territory.
As of midday Sunday in New York, spot gold was around $4,546 per ounce, according to live spot pricing, keeping the market within striking distance of Friday’s all-time peak. JM Bullion
With U.S. stock markets closed on Sunday, investors are now looking ahead to Monday’s reopen and a holiday-shortened week where thin liquidity and key macro headlines could amplify moves across rates, the U.S. dollar, and commodities—including gold. The New York Stock Exchange’s core trading session runs from 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. New York Stock Exchange
Where gold stands now
Gold enters the new week with momentum intact:
- Spot gold: around $4,546/oz midday Sunday, per live spot pricing. JM Bullion
- Recent intraday range cited by major pricing pages: roughly $4,475 to $4,550. Investing
- Futures reference point: Marketwatch showed December gold futures last updated Friday with a $4,529.10 settlement (and a last price around $4,546). MarketWatch
Because it’s Sunday, the headline driver for many traders is not only “price,” but also when liquidity returns. CME-listed gold futures trade nearly around the clock during the week (with regular daily maintenance breaks), but weekend conditions can still distort price discovery and widen spreads. CME Group
What moved gold in the last 48 hours
Gold’s late-December surge has been fueled by a familiar mix—Fed policy expectations, the U.S. dollar, and safe-haven demand—but the intensity has been magnified by holiday-thinned trading.
1) Record highs on rate-cut expectations and safe-haven demand
Reuters reported that gold surged to a record high in early Asian trading on Friday, supported by safe-haven demand and increasing expectations of further U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts. Spot gold was cited around $4,501 at the time, after touching a record $4,530.60 earlier in the session. Reuters
By the U.S. session, Reuters also described precious metals “smashing records,” with gold reaching about $4,549 at a record high and still up on the day even after easing from the peak. Reuters
2) Year-end market structure is amplifying price swings
The same Reuters global markets wrap noted that major U.S. indexes finished a muted post-Christmas session near record peaks while precious metals surged—an environment where light volume can exaggerate moves. Reuters
That matters for gold investors because fast rallies can attract trend-following inflows—and also raise the odds of sudden profit-taking if a macro catalyst surprises.
3) The dollar and “real rates” remain the transmission mechanism
Gold’s relationship with the dollar and Treasury yields is back at the center of the story.
Reuters highlighted that a weaker dollar helped make dollar-priced gold more attractive to non-U.S. buyers, and that investors are positioning for 2026 around how many Fed cuts arrive and how soon. Reuters
In other words: if markets push yields lower and the dollar weakens, gold often benefits; if yields jump or the dollar rebounds sharply, gold can face air pockets—especially after a steep run.
Wall Street context: why stock-market positioning still matters for gold
Even though gold is a global, cross-asset market, the metal is trading right now in the shadow of a powerful year-end equities narrative:
- The S&P 500 is pressing toward major milestones near the end of 2025, and investors are watching whether the seasonal “Santa Claus rally” holds as the calendar flips. Reuters
- Reuters’ “Week Ahead” coverage emphasized that Fed minutes and year-end portfolio adjustments could inject volatility during a period when lighter trading volumes can exaggerate moves. Reuters
- Reuters also reported that the Fed lowered its benchmark rate by 75 basis points over its last three meetings of 2025, placing policy in a range of 3.50%–3.75%, intensifying debate over how quickly the next cuts arrive. Reuters
For gold, this equities backdrop can cut both ways:
- If risk appetite remains strong, some capital can stay allocated to stocks instead of “defensive” hedges—but falling yields/dollar weakness that supports stocks can also support gold.
- If year-end volatility returns (especially around rates or Fed messaging), gold can attract fresh “portfolio hedge” demand.
Physical market signals: India cools, China stays tight
A key reality check for any gold rally is whether physical buying keeps up at higher prices.
Reuters reported that in India—the world’s second-largest gold consumer—dealers were offering deeper discounts to the official domestic price as the surge to record highs dented demand. Reuters
In China, Reuters cited a different dynamic: discounts narrowed as supply constraints and import conditions shaped availability, with one industry executive pointing to limited supply for some banks due to central bank import quota allocations. Reuters
That split matters for investors:
- Softening demand in price-sensitive markets can slow momentum.
- Tight supply conditions and resilient buying elsewhere can help keep the market firm, especially when broader macro flows are bullish.
Expert views and near-term positioning
Even among bulls, the message is increasingly about managing risk at elevated levels.
Peter Grant (Zaner Metals): bullish trend intact, but profit-taking risk rises
Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals, said the trend remains strong, while also warning that “the more it goes, the more we have to worry about profit-taking.” Reuters also reported Grant’s view that gold could be working toward the $4,686.61 area and that $5,000 in the first half of next year “seems likely.” Reuters
Soojin Kim (MUFG): banks’ forecasts, physical demand, and uncertainty could keep the rally going
Soojin Kim, a commodities analyst at MUFG, said in a note cited by Reuters that the rally could continue, supported by “major banks forecasting further gains into 2026,” along with physical demand and persistent geopolitical and monetary uncertainties. Reuters
Rich Ross (Evercore ISI): technical “gold breakout” targets $5,400
In a widely circulated technical outlook, Rich Ross, senior managing director and head of technical analysis at Evercore ISI, identified gold as a core bullish trade, with a technical target around $5,400, tied to expected dollar weakness and declining yields. Investing
Forecasts: where major banks and gold institutions see prices heading
Forecasts are never guarantees—but at this stage of the move, they influence positioning because they shape the debate around “how much upside is left.”
Major banks: $4,800–$4,900 targets appear in leading calls
- Goldman Sachs has projected gold could reach $4,900 by December 2026, citing central bank demand and Fed rate cuts as key supports, and recommended long exposure. Reuters
- Morgan Stanley forecast gold at $4,800 by Q4 2026, with expectations that central bank buying and ETF purchases may slow—but that rate cuts and a weaker dollar could keep gold supported. Reuters
- Deutsche Bank raised its 2026 average forecast to $4,450, and described a wide potential trading band (including a $3,950–$4,950 range), noting ETF flows and the policy path as key swing factors. Reuters
World Gold Council: 2026 could be rangebound—unless growth breaks
The World Gold Council has emphasized scenario-based outcomes for 2026: gold could deliver moderate gains if growth slows and rates fall; could do substantially better in a more severe downturn; or could slip if policy outcomes strengthen the dollar and keep rates higher. World Gold Council
What investors should know before the next session
With U.S. equities closed today, the bigger question is how markets reprice when liquidity returns on Monday—and what catalysts hit the tape first.
1) Watch the calendar: Fed minutes are the marquee event
Reuters’ “Week Ahead” preview pointed to the release of minutes from the Fed’s December meeting as the key macro event in the coming week, at a time when year-end rebalancing and light volume can magnify market moves. Reuters
2) Key U.S. data points to monitor early in the week
Even a “quiet” holiday week can move gold if it changes the rate path. The New York Fed’s economic indicators calendar lists, among other items, Pending Home Sales scheduled for Monday, Dec. 29. Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Investopedia also flagged the week’s lineup as including pending home sales, the Case‑Shiller home price index, and jobless claims, alongside the Fed minutes—important because labor and inflation expectations remain central to the 2026 cuts debate. Investopedia
3) Thin liquidity can cut both ways—especially after record highs
Reuters has repeatedly pointed to the year-end environment and thin trading conditions as an accelerant for moves in both equities and metals. Reuters
If gold gaps higher on the reopen, bulls may interpret it as confirmation. But thin conditions also raise the risk of whipsaws—particularly if the dollar snaps back or yields jump on a hawkish read of Fed minutes.
4) Know the “real drivers” to track on your screen
Before Monday’s session, many gold traders focus on three live inputs:
- The U.S. dollar index (a weaker dollar tends to support gold by improving affordability for non-U.S. buyers). Reuters
- Treasury yields / rate expectations (gold competes with yield-bearing assets; falling yields can lift gold). Reuters
- Risk sentiment and geopolitical headlines (safe-haven demand can reprice quickly). Reuters
5) Levels traders are watching into Monday
Gold’s own recent pricing bands provide a simple roadmap: widely followed pricing pages show an area roughly between $4,475 and $4,550 as a near-term range, with the high end coinciding with the latest record zone. Investing
If gold breaks and holds above the record region with normal liquidity back online, the market may quickly shift from “did we top?” to “how fast can we consolidate and extend?”
The bottom line
Gold closes out 2025 doing what it often does best: reacting instantly to rate expectations, dollar moves, and uncertainty, but doing so at a moment when market microstructure (thin year-end liquidity and holiday schedules) can make every move feel bigger.
Heading into Monday’s reopen, investors should treat gold’s record-high zone as both a sign of strength—and a sign that the market is priced for good news. The next wave of direction is likely to come from how traders interpret the Fed’s path into 2026, starting with the coming week’s Fed minutes and early economic data. Reuters
