Gold Price Today Near Record Highs: Latest Forecast and Key Drivers (29 November 2025)

Updated: 29 November 2025

Spot gold is ending November on a powerful note. Prices are hovering just below all‑time highs as traders pile into the metal on growing expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in December, while a rare outage at CME Group briefly jolted futures markets and added to volatility. At the same time, silver has pushed to fresh records, underscoring broad strength across precious metals. ^[1]

Gold price today: hovering around $4,200–$4,225 per ounce

Across major pricing platforms, gold price today is clustered in a tight range just above $4,200 per troy ounce:

Reuters data shows spot gold around $4,210–$4,211 late on Friday, 28 November, the highest since mid‑month. ^[2]
Goldprice.org notes a weekly gain of nearly $150 per ounce, putting spot near $4,225 and within touching distance of October’s record around $4,250. ^[3]
LiteFinance’s real‑time XAU/USD feed lists gold at about $4,220.00 as of 29 November 2025. ^[4]
Trading Economics records gold at $4,216.71 per ounce on 28 November, up 1.37% on the day, 7.26% over the past month, and roughly 58–59% year‑on‑year. ^[5]

That rally caps an impressive run:

Gold has gained roughly 3–3.6% this week and about 5% in November, marking four consecutive monthly advances. ^[6]
Year‑to‑date, global prices are up close to 60%, the strongest annual performance since 1979, according to long‑term comparisons from Deutsche Bank and Indian market data. ^[7]

From a technical analysis standpoint:

Investing.com’s dashboard rates XAU/USD a “Strong Buy” on both indicators and moving averages.
The 14‑day RSI stands around 73, indicating overbought conditions but still aligned with the prevailing uptrend.
Classic daily pivot levels put key inflection points roughly between $4,197 and $4,243, with the main pivot near $4,219. ^[8]

In short, gold price today is elevated, trend‑positive and technically stretched, a combination that often precedes sharp but short‑lived pullbacks in strong bull markets.

What moved gold on 28–29 November 2025?

1. Fed rate‑cut bets surged

The dominant theme in the last 48 hours has been a rapid repricing of Federal Reserve policy:

FXEmpire reports that odds of a 25 bps Fed rate cut at the 9–10 December meeting have jumped to about 87%, up from roughly 50% just a week ago. ^[9]
A weekly outlook syndicated by FXStreet and BeinCrypto puts the probability only slightly lower, near 85%, based on CME FedWatch data. ^[10]
Reuters and FX Leaders likewise cite trader estimates around 87%, pointing to dovish signals from officials such as Fed Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams, alongside softer economic data following the recent U.S. government shutdown. ^[11]

Lower expected policy rates mean:

Lower real yields, which reduce the opportunity cost of holding non‑interest‑bearing assets like gold.
A higher appeal for gold as a portfolio hedge if investors anticipate a slower U.S. economy heading into 2026.

Strategists at TD Securities, quoted by Reuters and other outlets, argue that expectations for a cooling economy are “getting some investors back” into bullion and underpinning demand even at record‑adjacent price levels. ^[12]

2. Dollar softness and safe‑haven flows

Rate‑cut bets have weighed on the U.S. dollar, which has eased this week:

FXEmpire notes that the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen about 0.7% on the week, while gold pushed to its strongest close since mid‑November. ^[13]
Goldprice.org highlights that the metal’s climb to around $4,225 has occurred alongside a softening dollar, a classic pattern in which a weaker greenback supports dollar‑denominated commodities. ^[14]

On the safe‑haven side, multiple analyses still cite:

Persistent geopolitical risks in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. ^[15]
Concerns about U.S. fiscal policy and the lingering effects of the government shutdown. ^[16]

A November 29 explainer from Pintu, for instance, lists geopolitical uncertainty, dollar weakness and massive central‑bank buying as key contributors to gold’s “spectacular” rise above $4,000 this year. ^[17]

3. A rare CME outage jolted futures markets

A more unusual driver of volatility over 28–29 November was a major outage at CME Group:

In Vietnam, VietBao reports that a problem with a cooling system at a Chicago data center run by CyrusOne forced a halt in futures trading across currencies, commodities, Treasuries and equities for several hours. ^[18]
Reuters and local commentary describe widened over‑the‑counter bid‑ask spreads and a brief loss of “pre‑market directional data” for desks that rely heavily on CME’s Globex platform. ^[19]

During the disruption:

World spot gold traded around $4,188 per ounce,
February 2026 gold futures were quoted near $4,200,
according to Vietnamese market coverage. ^[20]

The outage ultimately proved temporary—CME said markets would reopen soon after—but it underscored how infrastructure risks can suddenly amplify volatility even in deep, liquid markets.

Regional snapshots: how the gold price rally looks on the ground

India: MCX futures near record levels

In India, gold’s move is clearly visible on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX):

Business Today notes that February 2026 MCX gold futures closed on Friday about ₹1,932 higher at ₹1,29,599 per 10 g, now only ₹2,700 below their all‑time high of ₹1,32,294. ^[21]
Livemint reports December MCX gold futures settling around ₹1,26,920 per 10 g, up 1.13% on the day, with silver futures also edging higher. ^[22]

Spot and city‑wise rates show:

24‑carat gold near ₹1,27,000–₹1,27,600 per 10 g,
22‑carat gold around ₹1,17,000 per 10 g,
in major metros like Mumbai, Delhi and Bengaluru. ^[23]

Over the longer term, Livemint highlights that Indian gold prices have risen about 1,500% in 20 years—from roughly ₹7,600 per 10 g in 2005 to well above ₹1,25,000 in 2025—while delivering positive returns in 16 out of those 20 years. ^[24]

Pakistan: sharp catch‑up after global surge

In Pakistan, domestic bullion markets reopened after a brief pause with a sharp repricing to match global levels:

The Express Tribune reports that international gold gained $53 to about $4,218 per ounce.
In response, 24‑carat gold jumped Rs5,300 per tola to Rs444,162, and the 10‑gram price rose by Rs4,544 to Rs380,797. ^[25]

Local analysts quoted in the piece see gold as having broken a major resistance zone, with expectations that prices could oscillate between roughly $4,200 and $4,300 in the near term, mirroring global ranges. ^[26]

Vietnam: SJC gold bars spike above 154 million VND

Vietnamese markets saw similar fireworks:

VietBao’s November 29 update notes that SJC gold bar prices surged to 154.2 million VND per tael on the sell side, up 800,000 VND from the previous close.
At around 20:30 on 28 November (local time), world spot gold was near $4,188, with February 2026 futures at $4,200. ^[27]

The article ties the move directly to both the CME outage and the broader global rally, while also flagging ongoing geopolitical developments and OPEC+ oil decisions as background drivers of safe‑haven demand. ^[28]

Hong Kong and wider Asia: volatility and mixed retail demand

In Hong Kong:

A Meyka “Gold News Today” briefing describes gold around HKD 15,200 per ounce on 29 November, with a notable surge in prices and widened bid‑ask spreads during the outage, but also increased trading volumes as investors tried to take advantage of the swings. ^[29]

Across Asian markets:

Reuters and FX Leaders both note that retail demand in major Asian hubs has been subdued, as high prices deter buyers despite the Indian wedding season, and as China’s removal of a tax exemption on gold purchases weighs on consumer appetite. ^[30]

Institutional investors and central banks, however, remain net buyers overall, helping to offset weaker jewelry and retail demand. ^[31]

Short‑term gold price forecast: December 2025

Most current forecasts for gold price in December 2025 are cautiously bullish but emphasize heightened volatility.

Trading ranges and key technical levels

LiteFinance’s daily and weekly outlook for XAU/USD suggests: ^[32]

1 December 2025 range:
- Expected low: $4,114.01
- Expected high: $4,254.97
- Average price: $4,184.49
1–7 December 2025 weekly range:
- Weekly low: $4,005.79
- Weekly high: $4,373.89
- Average price: $4,189.84

For the next 30 days, the same model projects a target band around $4,310–$4,340, with a broader monthly low‑to‑high range of roughly $3,894–$4,441. ^[33]

Other technical highlights:

Immediate support zones frequently mentioned by analysts cluster around $4,100–$4,150, where recent pullbacks have found buyers. ^[34]
Near‑term resistance is seen in the $4,240–$4,270 region, overlapping the October record area and recent intraday highs. ^[35]
Investing.com’s pivot map places the main daily pivot near $4,219, with R1, R2 and R3 stepping up through the mid‑$4,220s to low‑$4,240s. ^[36]

Technical dashboards across multiple platforms agree that momentum is strong but overextended, with overbought RSI readings and elevated volatility measures like ATR.

Fundamental scenarios for the next few weeks

Base case – choppy consolidation

With aggressive rate‑cut expectations already priced in, many strategists anticipate a period of two‑way trading between about $4,100 and $4,300 as markets digest each new data release, particularly U.S. PCE inflation, payrolls and ISM surveys. ^[37]

Bullish case – new highs above $4,250

If incoming data confirm a gentle economic slowdown without reigniting inflation, and if the Fed either cuts in December or strongly signals imminent easing, gold could break above its October record near $4,250.
Some Indian and global commentators highlight potential upside targets in the $4,350–$4,400 area in that scenario, especially if ETF inflows accelerate and real yields fall further. ^[38]

Bearish case – correction below $4,000

On the other side, a hawkish Fed surprise, stronger‑than‑expected U.S. data or a sharp rebound in the dollar could trigger a deeper pullback.
Pintu’s November 29 analysis suggests a technical support zone in the $3,859–$4,000 range, where a corrective move could pause if macro conditions remain broadly supportive. ^[39]
Earlier research cited by Gold‑Eagle pointed to even lower “stress test” targets around $3,500 in the event of a severe shake‑out—levels not currently in mainstream forecasts but worth noting as tail‑risk scenarios. ^[40]

Medium‑term gold outlook: 2026 and beyond

Looking past the near‑term noise, institutions are updating their multi‑year gold price forecasts.

Deutsche Bank has just raised its 2026 gold forecast to $4,450 per ounce, from $4,000 previously, and now expects gold to trade in a $3,950–$4,950 range that year. ^[41]
The bank maintained its 2027 projection around $5,150, but stresses significant uncertainty around how far the Fed will actually ease and how long central‑bank buying will remain elevated. ^[42]

FXStreet’s broader gold outlook for 2025–2026 highlights three key pillars for the medium‑term trend: ^[43]

U.S. monetary policy – deeper or more prolonged cuts would generally support higher gold, while a shorter easing cycle could cap the upside.
Geopolitical tensions – sustained conflict tends to boost safe‑haven demand; credible peace processes could reduce that premium.
Central‑bank and ETF demand – robust official‑sector buying has been a major bull driver; any slowdown or reversal would be a headwind.

Pintu’s explainer echoes this view, arguing that while the trend into 2026 is still structurally bullish, sharp corrections are possible if the dollar strengthens, the Fed tightens unexpectedly, or geopolitical risk abates more quickly than markets expect. ^[44]

Key risks that could change the gold price story

Investors tracking gold price and forecast into December and 2026 should keep an eye on several risk factors:

Fed communication and data surprises
- A single upside surprise in inflation or jobs could dampen rate‑cut expectations and pressure gold. Conversely, weaker‑than‑expected data could reignite upside momentum. ^[45]
Dollar and bond yields
- Gold’s recent strength has occurred alongside a softer dollar and expectations of lower real yields. A sharp rebound in either could trigger a pullback. ^[46]
Geopolitical developments
- Peace negotiations in Ukraine or other hotspots could reduce safe‑haven demand; new flashpoints could do the opposite. ^[47]
Central‑bank purchase trends
- Deutsche Bank’s bullish 2026 forecast assumes continued strong official buying. A slowdown in reserve accumulation—or outright selling—would undermine that thesis. ^[48]
Market infrastructure and liquidity
- The CME outage is a reminder that operational issues can widen spreads and distort price signals, at least temporarily, potentially amplifying short‑term swings. ^[49]
Retail demand and regulation
- High prices are already curbing jewelry demand in parts of Asia, while policy changes like China’s removal of a tax exemption on gold purchases weigh on consumption. ^[50]

What this means for investors and traders

The following is general market commentary and not financial advice. Always consider your own circumstances and, if needed, consult a regulated financial adviser.

For short‑term traders:

The combination of tight ranges around $4,200, elevated RSI and frequent data releases points to high intraday volatility.
Many professional traders are focused on the $4,100–$4,150 support and $4,240–$4,270 resistance bands for short‑term entries and exits, while keeping position sizes modest due to overnight gap risk and event‑driven spikes. ^[51]

For longer‑term investors:

With gold already up 50–60% year‑to‑date in many currencies, chasing price near record highs carries clear drawdown risk if a corrective phase unfolds. ^[52]
At the same time, central‑bank buying, negative real‑yield expectations and geopolitical uncertainty continue to support strategic allocations to gold as a hedge. ^[53]
Many research pieces suggest phased or diversified exposure—for example, combining physical bullion, ETFs and possibly mining equities—rather than concentrated, highly leveraged bets. ^[54]

Whichever approach applies, the current environment rewards discipline and risk management more than bold, all‑in calls.

Quick FAQ: Gold price and forecast right now

1. Has gold become a bubble?

Not necessarily, but risks are rising:

Prices are at or near record highs in many currencies and have delivered decades‑best annual returns. ^[55]
Some analysts worry about momentum‑driven inflows, while others argue that strong central‑bank buying and structurally lower real yields justify higher valuations. ^[56]

Valuations are hard to pin down for an asset without cash flows, so the debate will likely continue. What is clear is that volatility tends to increase when prices are this elevated.

2. Will gold hit a new all‑time high in December 2025?

It’s possible but not guaranteed:

Spot is already within $25–$40 of the October peak around $4,250. ^[57]
Short‑term models show scope for moves up toward $4,350–$4,400 in a bullish scenario, but also leave room for dips below $4,100 if data or Fed messaging disappoints. ^[58]

In practice, the path will be decided by December’s Fed meeting, inflation readings and labor‑market data.

3. How are silver, platinum and palladium performing?

Gold’s rally is part of a broader precious‑metals surge:

Silver has surged to record highs around $56.4–$56.8 per ounce, up roughly 5–6% on the day and over 15% this month, according to Reuters and FX Leaders. ^[59]
Platinum has jumped around 10% this week, trading near $1,650–$1,670.
Palladium has also posted solid weekly gains in the mid‑single‑digit range. ^[60]

This broad‑based strength often occurs when investors are making a macro allocation to the precious‑metals complex, not just to gold alone.

4. What key events should gold watchers track next?

In the coming days and weeks, gold traders will focus on: ^[61]

U.S. PCE inflation and labor‑market data
ISM and other PMI surveys
The December 9–10 Federal Reserve meeting
Any major geopolitical headlines or cease‑fire/peace‑talk developments
Updates on central‑bank gold purchases and ETF flows

Each of these can shift rate expectations, the dollar and risk sentiment—three levers that matter enormously for the gold price outlook right now.