Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. enters the final week of 2025 with momentum on multiple fronts—stronger dealmaking conditions, a strategic push deeper into ETFs, and a renewed internal focus on productivity as generative AI reshapes how Wall Street runs. At the same time, the firm is putting big, specific numbers behind its 2026 views on equities, the global economy, and commodities—forecasts that are increasingly influencing how investors position for the year ahead.
With U.S. markets closed for Christmas Day and liquidity thin across global venues, the cleanest “snapshot” of where Goldman stands comes from the latest available trade data: Goldman Sachs shares last traded on December 24 and were around $910.78.
Below is what’s driving the Goldman narrative as of Dec. 25, 2025, spanning today’s headlines, late-December analyses, and the firm’s most recent published outlooks.
The year-end setup: Goldman’s next catalyst is Jan. 15 earnings
Investors don’t have long to wait for the next definitive read on Goldman’s operating engine. Goldman has scheduled its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings release for Thursday, Jan. 15, 2026, with results expected around 7:30 a.m. ET and a public conference call to follow. [1]
That matters because Goldman’s 2025 story has been about “operating leverage” returning: when markets cooperate and corporate confidence improves, the firm’s advisory, underwriting, and trading franchises can scale quickly—often faster than expenses.
Deal machine: Goldman’s leadership sees M&A momentum extending into 2026
One of the most consequential recent signals came from CFO Denis Coleman, who told an investor conference this month that the bank’s visibility and outlook for M&A heading into 2026 is “very encouraging.” [2]
Reuters reported several details behind that optimism:
- Goldman expects 2025 to be on track to become the second-biggest year in history for announced M&A industrywide, a constructive backdrop for advisory fees going into 2026. [3]
- Coleman also pointed to a stronger equity underwriting calendar and a surge in sponsor-led deal volume (Reuters cited an industrywide jump). [4]
This is particularly important for Goldman because its “when the phone rings” advantage is still real: it consistently competes for the largest, highest-fee strategic transactions.
Asset & Wealth Management: the Innovator acquisition is a direct bet on fee durability
While investment banking is cyclical, Asset & Wealth Management is where Goldman has been working to build more durable, recurring revenue.
The headline move: Goldman agreed to acquire Innovator Capital Management, a defined-outcome ETF specialist, in a deal valued at about $2.0 billion (cash and equity, with performance targets). The firm says Innovator manages $28 billion in assets under supervision across 159 defined outcome ETFs (as of Sept. 30, 2025), and that the transaction is expected to close in Q2 2026, pending approvals. [5]
Goldman’s rationale is clear in its own press release:
- Defined outcome ETFs are positioned as one of the faster-growing “active ETF” categories.
- The combination would take Goldman’s ETF footprint to 215+ ETF strategies globally and over $75 billion in ETF assets under supervision (pro forma, as of Sept. 30, 2025). [6]
Strategically, this reinforces Goldman’s multi-year direction: lean harder into scalable investment products and solutions that can be distributed widely—especially via advisors—rather than relying solely on episodic deal cycles.
The private-credit pressure point: Goldman’s BDC struggles are getting louder
Not all end-of-year coverage is celebratory.
A Wall Street Journal analysis published today spotlights challenges inside Goldman’s private-credit ecosystem, focusing on its business development company (BDC). According to the report, the BDC has been weighed down by soured legacy loans, with per-share value and stock price sliding for multiple quarters. The WSJ also pointed to specific troubled investments and described steps taken to tighten underwriting and restructure exposures. [7]
Why this matters now:
- Private credit has grown rapidly industrywide, but it is also opaque compared with public markets.
- Even if the BDC is only one vehicle, it can influence how investors evaluate Goldman’s broader alternatives push—especially if credit marks or nonaccruals become a recurring headline.
This is one area where the market will likely press Goldman for clarity on Jan. 15: credit quality, portfolio monitoring, and whether any “contained” issue can spill into a broader narrative.
AI, headcount, and the new efficiency trade
A major “2026 theme” is how banks translate AI into productivity without destabilizing culture, controls, or talent pipelines.
What Goldman’s CEO has signaled publicly
Business Insider’s roundup of big-bank CEO comments published today highlights Goldman CEO David Solomon’s messaging: AI is expected to drive efficiency—meaning slower hiring and role reductions in some areas, while also enabling the firm to redeploy talent toward higher-value work. [8]
This tracks with language Goldman used in its Q3 earnings communications, where Solomon emphasized operating more efficiently and referenced “new AI technologies” as part of that push. [9]
A separate market signal: layoffs don’t “pop” stocks the way they used to
A Benzinga write-up today, citing Goldman’s analysis, says investor reactions have shifted: stocks now decline on average when layoffs are framed as automation-driven, rather than rising on “classic restructuring” announcements. [10]
If that behavioral change holds, it becomes a subtle but important constraint on how banks message cost cutting. Efficiency still matters—but markets may increasingly treat job cuts as a warning about demand, growth, or competitive pressure, not a sign of discipline.
Where Goldman stands financially heading into year-end
Goldman’s most recent full quarterly report (Q3 2025) remains the hard anchor point for fundamentals going into Q4 earnings.
In its third-quarter release, Goldman reported:
- Net revenues of $15.18 billion and net earnings of $4.10 billion
- EPS of $12.25 and annualized ROE of 14.2% [11]
Reuters’ coverage of that quarter emphasized what powered the beat: a dealmaking rebound that lifted investment banking, plus strength in asset and wealth management as markets and fees improved. [12]
Also relevant for income-focused investors: Goldman declared a $4.00 quarterly dividend to be paid Dec. 30, 2025 (record date Dec. 2, 2025), according to its Q3 release. [13]
Goldman’s 2026 outlook: growth without a recession, but “hot valuations” raise volatility risk
As December closes, Goldman’s research output is increasingly shaping the macro conversation—especially because the firm’s forecasts are unusually specific and often widely repeated in global markets coverage.
Macro: “sturdy” global growth, slower jobs, moderating inflation
Goldman Sachs Research projects global GDP growth of 2.8% in 2026 (versus 2.5% consensus cited by Goldman), with the U.S. at 2.6% and the euro area at 1.3%, while also flagging a weaker jobs impulse even as output holds up. [14]
Goldman also expects further policy easing in developed markets, with its published outlook pointing to the U.S. policy rate being reduced to 3%–3.25% in 2026 under its projection. [15]
For Goldman the company, that macro mix matters because:
- Rate cuts can support underwriting and M&A financing conditions.
- A non-recessionary slowdown typically supports “risk appetite” while keeping defaults contained—though private credit remains a watchpoint.
Equities: still constructive, but expecting a “broadening bull market”
Goldman Sachs Research’s global equity strategy outlook published Dec. 22 frames 2026 as constructive for equities with earnings growth continuing, but with lower index returns than in 2025, as leadership broadens beyond the most crowded trades. [16]
A separate market write-up based on Goldman’s strategists said they forecast roughly 13% price returns for global equities in 2026 (and about 15% including dividends), emphasizing that returns would be driven more by earnings than by valuation expansion. [17]
MarketWatch also reported Goldman’s forecast that the S&P 500 could reach 7,600 by end-2026, alongside a more restrained long-run return outlook compared with the last decade’s outsized gains. [18]
Commodities: Goldman turns notably bullish on gold
Goldman’s commodities call that has traveled fastest across global markets: Reuters reported Goldman sees gold at $4,900 by December 2026 in its base case, citing central bank demand and cyclical support from Fed cuts. The same Reuters note reported Goldman projects Brent averaging $56 and WTI $52 in 2026 (base case), with copper still favored longer term due to electrification demand and supply constraints. [19]
Europe angle: Goldman takes the UK fee crown (and signals where growth is coming from)
A late-December Financial News London report said Goldman ranked #1 in UK investment banking fees in 2025, overtaking JPMorgan, helped by the year’s M&A activity. [20]
That matters for two reasons:
- It reinforces Goldman’s continued strength in the most competitive advisory corridors.
- It signals that even with a softer London IPO market, M&A and financing activity can still drive fee pools—a useful template if 2026 equity issuance remains uneven.
What to watch next: the 2026 Goldman Sachs checklist investors are building
With today’s news and December’s research framing the debate, here are the practical catalysts likely to dominate Goldman coverage in the next few weeks:
1) Jan. 15, 2026: Q4 2025 earnings
Expect close attention on:
- Advisory and underwriting pipeline commentary
- Trading performance as 2025’s market regime transitions
- Credit quality indicators (especially where private credit is involved)
- Expense discipline and AI-related productivity programs [21]
2) The Innovator integration narrative
Between now and the expected Q2 2026 close, investors will look for:
- How Goldman plans to distribute defined-outcome ETFs
- Whether ETF growth translates into measurable fee expansion
- How the deal fits alongside broader alternatives and wealth priorities [22]
3) Private credit transparency
Any additional disclosure around valuation marks, underwriting changes, or portfolio risk—especially if similar stories gain traction beyond the BDC—could shape sentiment disproportionately. [23]
4) The AI “efficiency vs. growth” balance
Goldman’s leadership has positioned AI as a way to reshape work rather than simply cut costs. The market will judge results by:
- measurable productivity improvements,
- controlled operational risk,
- and whether revenue growth keeps pace with cost discipline. [24]
Goldman Sachs heads into 2026 with a rare combination for a global investment bank: a strengthening deal backdrop, a big strategic asset-management move, and a research platform pushing influential forecasts—all while navigating real scrutiny in private credit and the organizational implications of AI.
The next time the market gets to validate (or challenge) that story will be January 15.
References
1. www.goldmansachs.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.goldmansachs.com, 6. www.goldmansachs.com, 7. www.wsj.com, 8. www.businessinsider.com, 9. www.goldmansachs.com, 10. www.benzinga.com, 11. www.goldmansachs.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.goldmansachs.com, 14. www.goldmansachs.com, 15. www.goldmansachs.com, 16. www.goldmansachs.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.marketwatch.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.fnlondon.com, 21. www.goldmansachs.com, 22. www.goldmansachs.com, 23. www.wsj.com, 24. www.businessinsider.com
