NEW YORK — As of 2:29 p.m. ET on Friday, December 26, 2025, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS) is trading at $906.47, down $4.31 (-0.47%) in a thin, post‑Christmas U.S. session where major indexes have been hovering near record levels. [1]
This is one of the last “tone‑setting” stretches of the year—often marked by lighter liquidity and bigger moves on smaller headlines—while investors position for 2026 and for Goldman’s next major catalyst: Q4 2025 earnings on January 15, 2026. [2]
Goldman Sachs stock price today (NYSE: GS): the market snapshot
Here’s where GS stands mid‑session in New York:
- Last: $906.47
- Day change: -$4.31 (-0.47%)
- Open: $911.00
- Intraday range: $904.20 – $913.18
- Volume (so far): ~571k shares
The NYSE is open right now—core trading runs 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET—so price action may remain fluid into the close (and into the closing auction). [3]
Why GS is moving today: a holiday tape plus a “Santa Claus rally” watch
Today’s market backdrop matters for GS because Goldman is both:
- a large‑cap financial that tends to track cyclical sentiment, and
- a markets + dealmaking franchise that can outperform when volumes, volatility, and corporate activity rise.
A few forces are shaping the tape on December 26:
- Post‑Christmas liquidity is thin. Reuters described U.S. trading Friday as “thin post‑Christmas,” with stocks hovering near all‑time highs. That can magnify sector rotations—especially in financials—on relatively modest news flow. [4]
- Investors are watching the “Santa Claus rally” window. Reuters notes the seasonal period began December 24 and runs through January 5, a stretch many traders monitor for sentiment into the new year. [5]
- Historically, December 26 has tended to be constructive for the S&P 500. MarketWatch, citing Bespoke Investment Group, points to December 26 as one of the more consistently positive trading days on average—useful context, even if it’s never a guarantee. [6]
For GS specifically, “risk‑on” conditions can be supportive—but at ~$906, the stock is also digesting a massive 2025 run in the big‑bank complex (more on that below). [7]
The Goldman headlines investors are pricing: deals, AI, and a lighter regulatory overhang
1) Goldman reshaped a key investment‑banking group to chase AI and digital infrastructure deals
Reuters reported that Goldman has restructured its Technology, Media & Telecom (TMT) investment‑banking group, creating new teams to focus on digital infrastructure and AI‑linked opportunities. [8]
Why it matters to the stock:
- It’s a strategic bet that the next wave of large advisory fees sits at the intersection of data centers, semiconductors, infrastructure tech, and internet platforms—the areas where corporate boards are writing the biggest checks. [9]
- It reinforces the broader narrative that Goldman is aligning its advisory machine with what’s driving equity leadership right now: AI build‑outs and the capex cycle around them. [10]
2) The Fed terminated a Goldman enforcement action dating back to 2020
On December 16, the Federal Reserve announced the termination of a cease and desist order dated October 22, 2020, with termination effective December 4, 2025. [11]
Several outlets tied that legacy action to Goldman’s 1MDB‑related compliance and risk‑management issues (stemming from earlier enforcement and penalties), which investors have long treated as an overhang that gradually faded over time. [12]
Market implication:
Even when investors believe an issue is “mostly behind” a company, a clear regulatory endpoint can reduce perceived tail risk—especially for banks, where capital rules, supervisory posture, and enforcement actions can influence valuation multiples.
3) The last quarterly read: “improved market environment,” plus an AI‑driven efficiency push
Goldman’s most recent reported quarter (Q3 2025) showed net revenues of $15.18 billion and EPS of $12.25, with CEO David Solomon pointing to franchise strength in an “improved market environment” and emphasizing efficiency and “new AI technologies.” [13]
That matters because in late‑cycle bull markets, investors often reward:
- operating leverage (cost discipline + revenue upside), and
- credible strategies to monetize AI beyond “buzzwords.”
The big catalyst: Goldman’s Q4 2025 earnings (January 15, 2026)
Goldman has published its earnings‑call schedule:
- Q4 2025 earnings date:Thursday, January 15, 2026
- Results release: ~7:30 a.m. ET
- Conference call:9:30 a.m. ET [14]
Consensus trackers broadly point to double‑digit EPS expectations for the quarter (for example, Zacks projects $11.64 EPS). [15]
What investors typically listen for on Goldman calls (and why it matters now)
Going into 2026, GS shareholders will likely focus on five themes:
- Investment banking momentum (advisory + underwriting):
Global dealmaking surged in 2025 to roughly $4.4–$4.5 trillion by major tallies, a backdrop that can support advisory pipelines into early 2026. [16] - Goldman’s “share” of the megadeal year:
The Banker reported Goldman ended 2025 as top global M&A adviser, citing $4.3 billion year‑to‑date M&A net revenue and a record count of large transactions (including 39 deals of $10bn+, per Dealogic). [17] - Markets revenue durability after a blockbuster year:
The Banker also highlighted a key competitive datapoint—Morgan Stanley surpassing Goldman in equities trading revenues in Q3 2025—and flagged the question facing the whole industry: can trading stay “hot” in 2026, or does it cool? [18] - Costs and efficiency (including AI):
In a late‑bull market, the bar rises. As Annex Wealth’s Brian Jacobsen put it (speaking broadly about 2026), markets may demand proof of “tangible productivity and margin gains” from AI investment. That framing can apply directly to banks promising efficiency gains through automation and AI‑enabled workflows. [19] - Capital return (dividends + buybacks) and regulation:
Bank valuations in 2025 were boosted by expectations of a friendlier regulatory posture in the U.S., according to Financial Times reporting on the sector’s surge. Investors will watch whether that translates into more flexible capital planning and sustained shareholder payouts. [20]
Analyst forecasts for GS stock: price targets vs. today’s level
After a run to the low $900s, GS is trading above many published 12‑month targets—an important sentiment signal.
Here are three commonly cited consensus aggregations:
- MarketBeat: average target $792.67 (range $600–$971), with a consensus “Hold” rating skewed toward holds. [21]
- TipRanks: indicates the next earnings report timing and provides an EPS forecast snapshot (with Q4 2025 EPS estimates around the $11–$12 area on its tracker). [22]
- TradingView: shows an analyst‑compiled target around the low‑$800s, with a wide range of outcomes—another reminder that forecasts are probabilistic, not precise. [23]
How to interpret “targets below the current price”
This pattern usually reflects one (or more) of the following:
- Targets lag fast‑moving stocks. A sharp late‑year rally can leave published targets “behind” until analysts refresh models.
- Macro/earnings normalization risk. Some analysts may assume 2025 was unusually strong for trading and dealmaking—and model a cooler 2026. [24]
- Valuation discipline. Even bulls can cap targets if they believe multiples have expanded ahead of fundamentals.
For investors, the practical takeaway isn’t “sell because targets are lower”—it’s that the next earnings call and 2026 guidance‑tone matter more than generic targets when the stock is already pricing in a strong environment.
The bull case vs. bear case for Goldman Sachs stock heading into 2026
Bull case: dealmaking strength + policy tailwinds + AI investment cycle
Supporters of GS often point to:
- A strong M&A cycle. Big‑ticket deals rebounded in 2025, and 2026 expectations remain upbeat in parts of Wall Street and the financial media. [25]
- Goldman’s positioning at the center of megadeals. The Banker’s Dealogic‑cited figures underscore Goldman’s ability to capture premium advisory fees in the largest transactions. [26]
- Sector tailwinds for large U.S. banks. The Financial Times reported big banks added hundreds of billions in market value in 2025 amid a deregulatory push and improved investment‑banking conditions. [27]
- “Risk‑on” market conditions that tend to help capital markets franchises—especially if the AI capex wave continues and equity markets stay constructive. [28]
Bear case: lofty expectations + potential trading slowdown + macro uncertainty
Risks that can matter disproportionately for GS:
- A “prove‑it” year dynamic. If markets demand real profit lift from AI investments (not just spending), leadership may narrow quickly from megacaps to cyclicals—and volatility can rise. [29]
- Trading revenue mean reversion. After a record‑strong stretch, even a “good” year can look weak versus tough comps—something industry analysts have flagged. [30]
- Conflicting macro signals:
- Consumer confidence has been soft, with the Conference Board index falling to 89.1 in December (per AP), a reminder that the economy isn’t uniformly strong beneath record‑high indexes. [31]
- At the same time, Q3 U.S. GDP growth came in strong at 4.3% annualized (per FT), highlighting why the market narrative is still “resilient economy.” [32]
This push‑pull matters for GS because the firm benefits from robust corporate activity and healthy markets—but can be sensitive to abrupt shifts in growth expectations, volatility regimes, and deal confidence.
What to know before the next session (and into the final trading days of 2025)
Because the NYSE is open now and closes at 4:00 p.m. ET, the immediate question is less “when can I trade again?” and more “what can change sentiment into the close, and what carries into Monday?” [33]
1) Watch for “thin tape” effects into the close
In late‑December sessions, liquidity can be patchy. Moves in GS and other banks can look outsized relative to headline flow—especially around the closing auction.
2) Mark next week’s key U.S. macro releases
Scotiabank’s calendar highlights several potentially market‑moving items during the week of December 29:
- Mon, Dec 29: Pending Home Sales (10:00 a.m. ET)
- Tue, Dec 30: S&P/Case‑Shiller Home Price Index (9:00 a.m. ET); Chicago PMI (9:45 a.m. ET)
- Wed, Dec 31:FOMC Meeting Minutes (2:00 p.m. ET)
- Fri, Jan 2: Construction Spending (10:00 a.m. ET) [34]
For a markets‑heavy bank like Goldman, shifts in rate expectations (often driven by Fed communications) can affect risk appetite and trading conditions.
3) Keep the Fed calendar in view for January
The Federal Reserve’s official schedule shows the next FOMC meeting is January 27–28, 2026. [35]
Investopedia reports expectations are for the Fed to hold rates steady at that meeting, based on market pricing and prevailing commentary. [36]
4) The biggest GS‑specific date remains January 15
Goldman’s own IR release makes January 15 the next major “information reset” for the stock—when the market will re‑price:
- deal backlog,
- markets/trading comps,
- expense trajectory,
- and capital return tone. [37]
Bottom line
Goldman Sachs stock is slightly lower in today’s post‑Christmas session, but the bigger story is that GS enters the final stretch of 2025 with investor expectations already elevated—supported by a strong deal year, a favorable big‑bank narrative, and a market still leaning into AI‑linked themes. [38]
With shares around $906, the next durable move likely depends less on holiday seasonality and more on hard catalysts: Fed minutes next week, and—most importantly—Goldman’s Q4 earnings on January 15. [39]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.nyse.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.marketwatch.com, 7. www.ft.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.federalreserve.gov, 12. news.bloomberglaw.com, 13. www.goldmansachs.com, 14. www.goldmansachs.com, 15. www.zacks.com, 16. www.ft.com, 17. www.thebanker.com, 18. www.thebanker.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.ft.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.tipranks.com, 23. www.tradingview.com, 24. www.thebanker.com, 25. www.ft.com, 26. www.thebanker.com, 27. www.ft.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.thebanker.com, 31. apnews.com, 32. www.ft.com, 33. www.nyse.com, 34. www.scotiabank.com, 35. www.federalreserve.gov, 36. www.investopedia.com, 37. www.goldmansachs.com, 38. www.ft.com, 39. www.scotiabank.com
