NEW YORK — Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS) finished Thursday, December 18, 2025, modestly higher and then held steady in after-hours trading, as Wall Street digested a cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation report and positioned ahead of a potentially more volatile Friday session.
GS closed at $876.30 at 4:00 p.m. ET, up 0.46% on the day, and was unchanged at $876.30 in after-hours trading as of 6:22 p.m. ET, according to real-time and extended-hours pricing feeds. [1]
Goldman Sachs stock after the bell: the numbers investors are reacting to
Goldman shares spent the day moving with the broader “rates narrative” and risk appetite across financials. On Thursday, GS traded between an intraday high near $892.79 and a low near $874.70, before closing at $876.30. Volume was roughly 1.9 million shares, in line with an active large-cap session. [2]
In a bigger-picture frame, GS remains near the upper end of its recent range: analysts’ data providers list a 52-week span roughly between $439 and $919, putting the stock within striking distance of recent highs while still well above the year’s lows. [3]
Why Goldman moved today: inflation, rate-cut expectations, and a late-day risk rebound
The biggest macro driver behind Thursday’s tone was U.S. CPI for November, which came in cooler than economists expected. Reuters reported that headline CPI rose 2.7% year over year versus a 3.1% forecast, while “core” inflation (excluding food and energy) was 2.6% year over year. The report also carried an important caveat: because of the earlier U.S. government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics did not publish month-to-month CPI changes, and the October CPI report was canceled. [4]
Markets took the headline as supportive for easier monetary policy in early 2026, with Treasury yields falling and risk assets stabilizing. That backdrop tends to matter for Goldman because expectations for Fed policy and the path of rates can influence:
- trading conditions in rates/FX/credit,
- capital markets issuance, and
- corporate confidence for M&A activity.
Reuters’ broader market wrap noted that U.S. indexes ended higher, led by technology, as investors leaned into the “soft inflation → more room for cuts” logic. [5]
A notable detail for Dow watchers: GS was also a meaningful early contributor to the Dow’s intraday strength. MarketWatch reported that Goldman’s share gains (alongside Home Depot) accounted for a sizable portion of the Dow’s morning advance—though the stock later cooled to the more modest close seen by the bell. [6]
The Goldman headlines that shaped today’s conversation
Even when GS stock is trading primarily off macro, investors still scan Goldman’s own research, dealmaking signals, and alternatives activity for clues about the bank’s forward earnings power. Here are the most material Goldman-linked news and analysis items from today.
1) Goldman’s commodity outlook: bullish gold, cautious oil, constructive copper
Goldman’s research team published fresh commodity views for 2026 that rippled across markets coverage. Reuters reported Goldman’s base case that gold could rise to $4,900/oz by December 2026 (+14% from current levels in that note), driven by central-bank demand and cyclical support from prospective Fed cuts. Goldman also projected oil prices declining in 2026 (with Brent and WTI averages in the mid-$50s in their base case), while keeping copper as a favored industrial metal longer term due to electrification demand and supply constraints. [7]
For GS shareholders, this kind of research isn’t just “color”: it can shape client positioning and flows across commodities and macro products—an ecosystem where Goldman’s markets franchise competes aggressively.
2) M&A momentum: Reuters flags near-record 2025 deal value and a 2026 pipeline
For investment banks, the most direct “earnings bridge” from market optimism to revenue is often the deal calendar. Reuters reported that global announced M&A value has surpassed $4.8 trillion in 2025 (up sharply versus 2024), making it the second-highest year on record by Dealogic’s tally through mid-December. The same Reuters report included a Goldman Sachs perspective: Ed Wittig, co-head of Asia Pacific M&A at Goldman, said the firm is seeing major clients look offshore again, with particular interest in opportunities across regions. [8]
That matters because a sustained M&A run-rate into 2026 would typically support advisory fees and related financing opportunities—two areas where Goldman tends to be highly leveraged versus more balance-sheet-driven banks.
3) Goldman Sachs Alternatives leads a $100M AI engineering funding round
In private markets, Goldman’s alternatives platform was in the headlines as well. A press release distributed via PRNewswire said Neural Concept raised a $100 million Series C led by Growth Equity at Goldman Sachs Alternatives, alongside existing investors. The company positions itself as an “AI-native engineering” platform aimed at industrial workflows (automotive, aerospace/defense, semiconductors, and more). [9]
For GS, this is part of a broader story investors track closely: the bank’s push to scale fee-based, longer-duration businesses alongside the core investment banking and markets engine.
4) Goldman’s market strategy call: “2026 will be for stock picking”
Goldman’s strategists also made waves in public market commentary. MarketWatch summarized a Goldman view that 2026 could be a strong environment for stock picking, pointing to historically low expected correlations among S&P 500 constituents. The same note highlighted favorable late-December seasonality (December 17–31) and called for modest year-end gains rather than a dramatic melt-up. [10]
Wall Street forecasts for GS: what analysts’ targets imply right now
With GS near the high end of its annual range, the key question going into Friday is less “what happened today?” and more “is the stock priced for perfection?”
Across major forecast aggregators, the message is broadly similar: neutral-to-cautious consensus with wide dispersion.
- StockAnalysis’ compilation of 13 analysts shows a “Hold” consensus and an average price target of $756.54, with estimates ranging from $560 to $971. [11]
- MarketBeat’s broader set (22 analysts) also posts a “Hold” consensus with an average target around $792.67 (range $600–$971). [12]
- Investing.com’s consensus panel (19 analysts) lists an average target around $813.47 with a “Neutral” framing and a similar high/low range. [13]
The practical takeaway for tomorrow: GS is currently trading above many published average targets, which can raise the bar for incremental upside unless the market gets either (a) a stronger growth/rates tailwind, or (b) evidence that capital markets activity and deal flow will remain robust into 2026.
What to know before the market opens tomorrow (Friday, Dec. 19, 2025)
Below are the most actionable “watch items” that could shape GS at the open and through Friday’s session.
1) Rates are still the main lever — but CPI reliability is part of the debate
Thursday’s CPI surprise helped risk assets, but Reuters highlighted active debate about the data’s noisiness due to the earlier shutdown. Notably, Reuters also included a Goldman Sachs Asset Management comment that the Fed may not react strongly to a single noisy print and could focus on the next CPI release in mid-January as a cleaner signal. [14]
For GS, watch:
- the 10-year Treasury yield direction into the open,
- the 2s/10s curve shape (risk sentiment + recession/growth expectations), and
- whether market-implied rate-cut expectations for early 2026 firm up or fade.
2) Friday is “triple witching” — expect pockets of volatility
December 19, 2025 is the third Friday of December, a “triple witching” date when stock options, index options, and futures expire together—often associated with elevated volumes and sharper intraday swings. Britannica’s calendar of triple-witching dates lists December 19, 2025 as one of the year’s key expiration sessions. [15]
This can matter for GS in two ways:
- As a Dow component (price-weighted), GS can have an outsized mechanical impact on the index during fast moves.
- As a market-maker and derivatives participant, the broader flow environment can influence intraday tape action across financials and indices.
3) The Friday data calendar is lighter than many traders expected
If you were bracing for a major BEA macro dump, there’s an important scheduling wrinkle: the Bureau of Economic Analysis said some releases originally slated for Dec. 19—including GDP (third estimate) and Personal Income and Outlays—were rescheduled. [16]
Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ December schedule shows 10:00 a.m. ET releases on Friday including Consumer Expenditures (annual 2024), County Employment and Wages (Q2 2025), and Total Factor Productivity (annual 2024). These are important datasets, but they are typically less market-moving than CPI, payrolls, or PCE inflation. [17]
Net: tomorrow morning may be more about positioning and flows (including triple witching) than a single blockbuster macro print.
4) Holiday-market mechanics: hours are normal tomorrow, but the schedule ahead matters
As liquidity thins into late December, price moves can look larger than the underlying fundamentals. Adding to that seasonal dynamic, Reuters reported that major U.S. exchanges will remain open on Dec. 24 (with an early close) and Dec. 26 (regular hours), despite a federal government closure order for those dates. [18]
Investors in large financials like GS often keep an eye on these calendar mechanics because thinner participation can amplify daily swings.
5) The next major Goldman catalyst is earnings — and the date is confirmed
Looking past Friday, Goldman’s next major scheduled event is its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings release. Goldman’s own investor relations press release lists Thursday, January 15, 2026 as the date for the Q4 2025 results (released around 7:30 a.m. ET with a 9:30 a.m. ET conference call). [19]
With GS already priced near the high end of its year range, expectations into that print will matter—and positioning can start well ahead of the date.
Bottom line for GS heading into Friday
Goldman Sachs stock ended Thursday modestly higher and flat after-hours, with the broader market focused on a cooler CPI print and what it might mean for Fed policy in early 2026. [20]
For
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.marketwatch.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.prnewswire.com, 10. www.marketwatch.com, 11. stockanalysis.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.britannica.com, 16. www.bea.gov, 17. www.bls.gov, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.goldmansachs.com, 20. stockanalysis.com
