SINGAPORE, May 16, 2026, 00:06 SGT
Grab Holdings fell to $3.46 during Friday’s session in New York, hitting a 52-week low. Investors continued to unload shares of the Southeast Asian ride-hailing and food delivery firm even after its first-quarter results beat expectations. The shares last changed hands at $3.55, off 0.6%, according to market data.
This shift highlights a disconnect between Grab’s fundamentals and how investors are pricing the stock. Grab topped analyst forecasts for revenue this month—the boost came from its mobility and delivery arms. Still, the shares reflect worries over regulation, rising fuel prices, and questions around Grab’s ability to chase growth without hitting its margins.
Indonesia is in focus right now. On May 1, President Prabowo Subianto announced a big change: ride-hailing operators will see their maximum commission from drivers slashed to 8%—down sharply from 20%. Drivers will also need accident and health insurance under the new rules. The move hits players like Grab and local competitor GoTo.
Grab’s first-quarter revenue climbed 24% from a year ago to $955 million, while profit hit $120 million, a sharp jump from $10 million in the same period last year. The company posted on-demand gross merchandise value of $6.1 billion, up 24%.
Anthony Tan, the chief executive, described it as a “strong start to 2026.” Chief Financial Officer Peter Oey echoed the upbeat view, saying Grab remains “firmly on track” for its 2026 revenue target between $4.04 billion and $4.10 billion, with adjusted EBITDA expected to land in the $700 million to $720 million range. Adjusted EBITDA here excludes interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation, and several costs Grab excludes from its definition of regular operations, making it a non-IFRS profit metric. Grab
But Indonesia has rewritten the script. Grab has “enough levers” to soften the impact, Oey said, though he acknowledged both the fare structure for two-wheelers and the company’s overall business model in Indonesia are due for a reset. “Definitely, this is not a small change,” Oey told Bloomberg, as reported by Singapore’s Business Times. The Business Times
Grab has moved to calm investor nerves, with Chief Operating Officer Alex Hungate pointing out that two-wheel riders make up under 6% of the company’s mobility business volume. Hungate added that Grab is in talks with ministries, looking for clarity on how the decree will be rolled out.
DBS analyst Sachin Mittal called the cap “structurally negative” for margins, but said it’s not likely to “fully derail” the sector—operators still have levers like raising fares, tweaking surge pricing, or shifting zoning. DBS is sticking with its buy rating on Grab, target price at $5.93. The note cautioned, though: if the rule ends up applying to four-wheel drivers and operators can’t pass on costs, worst case, group revenue could drop around 5%, and adjusted EBITDA might fall by 14%. DBS Singapore
But pulling off those offsets isn’t simple. If consumer prices keep rising, trip growth could falter. Smaller subsidies? That might drive users straight to competitors. And if Indonesia expands the rule to cover cars as well as motorbikes, the impact would be bigger. The whole thing also adds another wrinkle to ongoing market talk about Grab and GoTo, with driver welfare, competition, and politics all tangled up together.
Expansion is the other lever for Grab. Back in March, the company struck a $600 million cash deal to acquire Delivery Hero’s Foodpanda Taiwan operation—its first play beyond Southeast Asia. Closing is targeted for the second half of 2026, pending regulatory sign-off. Grab forecasts the acquisition will lift adjusted EBITDA by at least $60 million come 2028.
Right now, the market’s verdict is straightforward: Grab is expanding, though the cost of that expansion is drawing new attention. The company brings profit, cash, and a sizable footprint. The question for investors is whether regulators, competitors, and budget-minded customers will allow it to hold onto all three.
