GSK plc (LSE: GSK, NYSE: GSK) heads into the final month of 2025 near multi‑year highs, powered by a strong run of earnings beats, a revived oncology franchise and a looming change at the top of the company. As of 2 December 2025, the stock sits close to its 52‑week peak while analyst opinion remains broadly neutral and focused on whether the pipeline can deliver enough growth to meet GSK’s ambitious 2031 revenue targets. [1]
This overview pulls together the key share‑price moves, fresh news from 2 December, Street forecasts and the main bull and bear arguments around GSK stock as of today.
GSK share price snapshot on 2 December 2025
On the London Stock Exchange, GSK traded in a roughly 1,787p–1,806p range on 2 December, with data from Investing.com showing a closing price around 1,783p and Hargreaves Lansdown’s delayed quote still placing the stock near 1,800p. That is only a shade below the 52‑week high of about 1,830p and well above the year low near 1,243p. [2]
The New York‑listed ADR closed at $47.19 on 1 December, just under its 52‑week high of $48.69 and far above the 12‑month low around $31.72. [3]
According to recent performance data, GSK shares are up roughly 31% year‑to‑date and close to 40% over the past 12 months, significantly outpacing many large‑cap pharma peers. [4]
On valuation, multiple data providers put GSK on roughly 11–13x trailing earnings, versus much higher multiples for some big‑pharma competitors, with a dividend yield around 3.4–3.5% and a market capitalisation in the £70–73 billion ($95–97 billion) range. [5]
For income‑oriented investors, that combination – near‑peak share price, mid‑single‑digit yield and low‑teens P/E – is central to the current debate about whether GSK is now “fairly valued” or still offers upside.
Earnings momentum: Q2 and Q3 beats drive a 2025 upgrade
GSK’s rerating in 2025 is largely earnings‑driven.
In Q2 2025, revenue grew 6% at constant currency to nearly £8 billion, with double‑digit growth in specialty medicines and solid contributions from HIV therapies and vaccines. Core earnings per share increased faster than sales, reflecting operating leverage and royalty income. [6]
The step‑change came in Q3. GSK reported:
- Sales of £8.5 billion, up 7% at reported rates and 8% at constant exchange.
- Specialty Medicines up 16%, including oncology up 39% and HIV up 12%.
- Vaccines up 2%, with shingles vaccine Shingrix up 13%, meningitis vaccines up 5% and RSV vaccine Arexvy up about a third year‑on‑year in the quarter.
- General Medicines up 4%, with Trelegy respiratory therapy up 25%.
- Core operating profit up 11% and core EPS up 14% to 55p in Q3. [7]
Total reported operating profit and EPS more than doubled, helped by lower litigation charges and legal costs than in 2024, when Zantac settlements weighed heavily on earnings. [8]
2025 guidance now firmly higher
On the back of Q3, management raised full‑year 2025 guidance:
- Turnover growth: now 6–7% (previously guided towards the top end of 3–5%).
- Core operating profit growth: 9–11% (up from 6–8%).
- Core EPS growth: 10–12% (also up from 6–8%). [9]
This places GSK on a mid‑single‑digit top‑line and low‑double‑digit EPS growth trajectory for 2025, ahead of where many investors expected the company to be at this point in its post‑Haleon life.
Dividend and buyback: income and capital return story
GSK declared a 16p Q3 dividend and reiterated its expectation of 64p per share for the full year 2025, implying a yield of roughly 3.4–3.5% at current prices. [10]
On top of regular dividends, the company is in the middle of a £2 billion share buyback launched after FY 2024 results. By the end of Q3 2025, GSK had spent about £1.1 billion on repurchases. [11]
GSK has also been actively managing its capital structure: for example, a November update showed the company holding about 6.3% of its voting rights as treasury shares after a series of buybacks, while continuing routine executive share‑option grants under its Share Save Plan 2022. [12]
For many investors, those capital returns – alongside the improved earnings outlook – are key reasons the stock has rerated higher in 2025.
Blenrep is back: oncology pipeline shifts into higher gear
One of the most important narrative changes for GSK this year has been the reversal of fortune for Blenrep (belantamab mafodotin), its antibody‑drug conjugate for multiple myeloma.
After an earlier setback that led to the withdrawal of its U.S. indication in 2022, Blenrep has staged a comeback:
- EU and UK: In April and July 2025, regulators approved Blenrep‑based combinations for relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma after at least one prior line of therapy. [13]
- Japan: Blenrep combinations were approved in May 2025, further broadening its global footprint. [14]
- United States: On 23 October 2025, the FDA approved Blenrep in combination with bortezomib and dexamethasone (BVd) for adults with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma after at least two prior lines, returning the drug to the U.S. market with a stronger evidence base. [15]
GSK has previously signalled that Blenrep could be a multi‑billion‑pound product if combination data continue to impress, and the new approvals shift investor sentiment from “salvage story” toward “growth asset,” albeit with competition from CAR‑T therapies and other bispecifics. [16]
Fresh ASH data underline the blood‑cancer push
On 2 December, attention turned to new data being presented at the American Society of Hematology (ASH) meeting. GSK’s ASH press materials highlight:
- Additional results from the DREAMM programme evaluating Blenrep combinations in multiple myeloma,
- New data for momelotinib (Omjjara/Ojjaara) in myelofibrosis, and
- Early‑stage results for other haematology assets. [17]
The company frames these results as evidence that it can “redefine outcomes” in blood cancers, aiming to position Blenrep combinations as community‑clinic‑friendly alternatives to more complex cell therapies. Investors will be watching closely for durability, safety and real‑world uptake to judge whether Blenrep can grow into the kind of scale asset management has implied.
Building an oncology platform: Jemperli, momelotinib and new deals
Beyond Blenrep, GSK is trying to assemble a broader oncology portfolio:
- Jemperli (dostarlimab), its PD‑1 checkpoint inhibitor, is now on a clear blockbuster trajectory. An analysis of AnaptysBio disclosures shows Jemperli sales of about $303 million in Q3 2025 and $785 million in the first nine months of the year, with double‑digit quarter‑on‑quarter growth. [18]
- Momelotinib (Omjjara/Ojjaara) is expanding globally as a treatment for myelofibrosis patients with anaemia, with approvals across the U.S., EU, UK and Japan, creating a differentiated niche in a competitive JAK‑inhibitor market. [19]
Two pieces of news in late 2025 are especially relevant:
- LTZ Therapeutics collaboration (myeloid cell engagers)
In November, GSK signed a strategic deal with LTZ Therapeutics for up to four first‑in‑class “myeloid cell engagers,” paying an upfront sum (reported at around $50 million) with milestones and royalties linked to clinical progress and sales. The aim is to combine GSK’s development scale with LTZ’s early‑stage immuno‑oncology technology. [20] - Jemperli royalty dispute with AnaptysBio
In November, a legal dispute resurfaced between GSK and AnaptysBio over the original Jemperli licence. Court filings describe duelling lawsuits in Delaware, with GSK seeking to reduce royalty rates and Anaptys alleging breach of contract. Anaptys’ own commentary underscores what is at stake: Jemperli royalties could amount to several hundred million dollars annually at peak. A trial is currently expected in mid‑2026. [21]
The dispute does not affect Jemperli’s regulatory status or near‑term commercialisation but adds legal noise around the economics of one of GSK’s most important growth drivers.
Big pipeline bet: GSK’s $12 billion‑plus Hengrui alliance
In July 2025, GSK announced a substantial collaboration with Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, paying $500 million upfront for:
- Ex‑China rights to HRS‑9821, a PDE3/4 inhibitor in development for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and
- Options on 11 additional pre‑clinical programmes spanning respiratory, immunology and oncology. [22]
If all options are exercised and milestones hit, the deal could deliver up to $12 billion to Hengrui, plus tiered royalties on sales, making it one of the largest R&D alliances in recent pharma history. [23]
Industry bodies have already highlighted the transaction, with GSK and Hengrui receiving a life‑sciences “Deal of Distinction” award in November. [24]
From an equity‑holder perspective, the alliance reinforces two themes:
- GSK is doubling down on respiratory and immunology, where it already has blockbuster medicines like Trelegy.
- Management is willing to use its balance sheet aggressively to fill perceived medium‑term revenue gaps – a point also raised by Reuters Breakingviews, which noted that consensus 2031 revenue forecasts around £34 billion lag GSK’s goal of >£40 billion. [25]
That raises the classic M&A question: can GSK strike smart deals that generate attractive returns, or will it overpay to “buy growth”?
Vaccines and RSV: recovery or structural headwind?
Vaccines remain a core pillar of GSK, representing nearly a third of group sales in 2024, but 2025 has been a mixed year.
- Shingrix continues to grow solidly, with low‑double‑digit growth in Q3 2025. [26]
- RSV vaccine Arexvy, once expected to be a £3 billion blockbuster, has underwhelmed. Reuters notes that Q1 2025 sales were just £78 million, down 57% year‑on‑year, as U.S. recommendations narrowed and competition from Pfizer and Moderna intensified. [27]
GSK is trying to reignite the RSV franchise:
- In June, the company asked the European Medicines Agency to extend Arexvy’s use to at‑risk adults under 50, with a decision expected in the first half of 2026. Arexvy is currently approved in the EU for adults 60+ and at‑risk adults aged 50–59. [28]
- Management continues to highlight third‑party estimates that see the RSV vaccine market becoming a multibillion‑dollar opportunity by the early 2030s, though projections vary widely across research firms. [29]
At the same time, GSK has announced a $30 billion U.S. investment plan over the next five years to expand manufacturing, discovery and clinical trial infrastructure, underscoring how central vaccines and specialty medicines in its largest market have become to its strategy. [30]
Investors now have to decide whether Arexvy’s recent weakness is a temporary guideline and launch‑timing issue, or a sign that GSK overestimated its RSV edge.
Litigation and policy risks: Zantac and U.S. drug pricing
Zantac litigation: overhang much reduced, not entirely gone
Zantac (ranitidine) litigation was a major source of uncertainty for GSK in 2023–24, culminating in a £1.8 billion settlement charge that depressed reported EPS in 2024. [31]
Since then:
- GSK has reached confidential settlements that resolved the vast majority of U.S. state‑court cases. [32]
- In July 2025, the Delaware Supreme Court overturned a lower‑court decision and sided with GSK and other drugmakers on the admissibility of expert evidence, a ruling Reuters described as favourable to the defence and a blow to remaining plaintiffs. [33]
GSK continues to maintain that there is no reliable evidence linking ranitidine to cancer and that most litigation has now been resolved, though some cases and appeals remain. [34]
For equity holders, Zantac looks much less like an existential threat and more like a residual legal risk that still warrants monitoring but is unlikely to dominate the investment case unless new adverse rulings emerge.
U.S. Medicare price negotiations
GSK is also exposed to U.S. drug‑pricing reforms. November’s announcement of Medicare‑negotiated prices included Trelegy and Breo on the list of affected drugs. Reuters reporting noted that price cuts for these products were broadly in line with expectations, with analysts estimating a low‑ to mid‑hundreds‑of‑millions impact on earnings over the coming years, much of which had already been incorporated into company guidance. [35]
A separate analysis from TS2 and broker research emphasised that these pricing pressures were partly offset by GSK’s growing specialty portfolio and share buybacks, leading at least one European broker (Berenberg) to raise its price target while maintaining a cautious stance on the broader sector. TS2 Tech+1
In short, U.S. pricing reform is a headwind, but not currently seen as thesis‑breaking for GSK.
Leadership transition: Walmsley hands the reins to Miels
2025 is Emma Walmsley’s final year as CEO. In late September, GSK announced that she will step down at year‑end, with Luke Miels, the company’s commercial chief, becoming CEO from 2026. [36]
In her Q3 statement, Walmsley highlighted:
- The successful transformation of GSK into a focused biopharma group,
- Four FDA product approvals so far this year (including Blenrep, Penmenvy meningitis vaccine, first‑in‑class antibiotic Blujepa for uncomplicated UTIs, and a new COPD indication for Nucala), and
- Progress on 15 “scale” pipeline opportunities expected to launch by 2031. [37]
Miels inherits:
- A company with upgraded 2025 guidance and a clearer specialty medicines engine,
- But also an ambitious long‑term goal of >£40 billion revenue by 2031 and external commentary suggesting consensus remains well below that target, implying pressure to keep doing deals. [38]
How he balances organic R&D investment with further M&A will be one of the key drivers of sentiment in 2026 and beyond.
What Wall Street thinks: GSK stock forecast into 2026
Analyst opinion as of early December 2025 is cautiously constructive but far from euphoric.
Consensus ratings and price targets
- Investing.com’s survey of analysts covering the NYSE‑listed ADR shows an overall “Neutral” rating, with 2 Buy, 5 Hold and 1 Sell recommendation. The average 12‑month price target is $48.97, implying roughly 4% upside from the latest $47.19 close, with estimates spanning about $40 to $53. [39]
- MarketBeat data, which aggregates a slightly different analyst set, also labels the stock a “Hold”, with an average target around $44, a little below the current share price, and distributions of 2 Buys, 4 Holds and 1 Sell. [40]
Notably, several brokers have moved their stance more positively following the Q3 beat and guidance upgrade:
- Bank of America recently upgraded GSK from “Underperform” to “Neutral,” citing better growth visibility and balance‑sheet capacity. [41]
- CFRA reiterated a positive view with a $53 target, implying low‑teens percentage upside from current levels. [42]
- Other houses, such as Berenberg and BNP Paribas Exane, remain more cautious with targets in the low‑to‑mid $40s. [43]
Independent research platforms and commentators (for example on Seeking Alpha) tend to be somewhat more bullish, often highlighting GSK’s lower litigation risk after the Zantac settlements and its comparatively modest loss‑of‑exclusivity cliff versus some peers. [44]
Implied growth expectations
Analyst consensus compiled by various data providers points to:
- Mid‑single‑digit revenue growth beyond 2025, consistent with management’s 6–7% turnover outlook this year, and
- High‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit EPS growth, helped by operating leverage, mix improvement toward specialty drugs and ongoing buybacks. [45]
Taken together, the Street seems to be saying: GSK is no longer “cheap and hated,” but not yet priced as a high‑growth pharma champion either.
Key bull and bear arguments going into 2026
Bull case
Supporters of the stock tend to focus on:
- Improving execution: Two consecutive years of solid beats and upgrades, with 2025 guidance now comfortably ahead of original expectations. [46]
- Oncology inflection: Blenrep’s global comeback, Jemperli edging toward blockbuster status, and momelotinib adding another speciality anchor. [47]
- Deepened pipeline via deals: The Hengrui alliance, LTZ collaboration and other business‑development moves provide many shots on goal in respiratory, immunology and cancer. [48]
- Income and valuation: A 3.4–3.5% dividend yield, continued buybacks and a low‑teens P/E multiple compared with higher‑valued peers like AstraZeneca or Novo Nordisk. [49]
- Reduced litigation risk: Zantac and other legal overhangs are now far better quantified and trending in GSK’s favour in higher courts. [50]
From this angle, GSK looks like a value‑leaning large‑cap pharma with improving growth and less downside risk than it carried two years ago.
Bear case
Sceptics point to several issues:
- Long‑term growth gap: Independent analysis suggests consensus 2031 revenue forecasts remain about 15% below management’s >£40 billion ambition, raising the risk of expensive M&A to “fill the hole.” [51]
- Vaccine uncertainty: Arexvy’s disappointing early performance and safety‑warning labels for RSV vaccines suggest the franchise may never reach its originally touted peak‑sales figures. [52]
- Pricing reform: Even if largely anticipated, U.S. Medicare negotiations will chip away at margins for Trelegy, Breo and potentially other products over time. [53]
- Complexity in oncology economics: The Jemperli royalty dispute with AnaptysBio, combined with partnership‑heavy deals like Hengrui and LTZ, means a material share of future oncology upside could be shared with partners, complicating the profit picture. [54]
- Execution risk on many fronts: Delivering 15 “scale” launches by 2031, integrating multiple alliances and navigating political pressure on vaccines and pricing is a tall order for any management team, let alone under a new CEO. [55]
Bottom line: how GSK stock looks on 2 December 2025
As of 2 December 2025, GSK stands at an interesting inflection point:
- The share price is near its 52‑week high, after a roughly 30%+ run this year. [56]
- Earnings momentum is firmly positive, with guidance raised and specialty medicines firing. [57]
- The oncology story has shifted from repair to growth, thanks to Blenrep’s revival and Jemperli’s rapid expansion, now buttressed by new ASH data. [58]
- A leadership transition and an increasingly deal‑driven strategy add both opportunity and risk, particularly as GSK pushes toward its long‑term revenue target. [59]
For investors following GSK stock, the key questions heading into 2026 are:
- Can the current wave of oncology and vaccine launches sustain mid‑ to high‑single‑digit growth beyond 2025?
- Will Miels and his team strike value‑creating deals rather than simply large ones?
- And will regulatory and pricing headwinds remain manageable in the U.S. and Europe?
Those are the variables that will determine whether today’s near‑record share price marks a plateau – or merely another step in GSK’s climb.
References
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