GSK plc (NYSE: GSK) heads into December 2025 as one of the stronger-performing big pharma names, with the share price hovering just below a 52‑week high after a year of earnings beats, upgraded guidance, revived cancer assets and a looming CEO handover.
The U.S. ADR last traded at about $47.9 (close on 28 November), with a 52‑week range of roughly $31.7–$48.7, a market cap near $95.5 billion, and a trailing P/E around 13.3. [1] Several sources estimate GSK’s total return in 2025 at roughly 30–40%, far ahead of its sector, with Zacks noting a 29% year‑to‑date gain versus about 11% for its peer group, and other commentators citing gains above 30%. [2]
At the same time, consensus on Wall Street is cautious: most analysts now rate the stock a “Hold”, with an average 12‑month price target below the current share price.
Below is a structured look at the latest news, forecasts and analysis as of 1 December 2025.
Key points
- Stock performance: GSK shares are trading near a 52‑week high after a 2025 rally of roughly 30–40%, with a P/E around 13 and a dividend yield near 3.5%. [3]
- Earnings momentum: Q2 and Q3 2025 both beat expectations and led management to raise full‑year guidance for sales, profit and EPS growth. [4]
- Blenrep comeback: GSK’s multiple myeloma drug Blenrep has been re‑approved in the U.S. and across key markets, restoring a potential >£3 billion peak‑sales franchise that looked jeopardised earlier in the year. [5]
- New deals and disputes: A fresh oncology collaboration with LTZ Therapeutics and a license fight over Jemperli (via subsidiary Tesaro’s litigation against AnaptysBio) shape the late‑2025 newsflow. [6]
- Leadership transition: Long‑time CEO Emma Walmsley will step down on 31 December 2025, with Luke Miels (currently Chief Commercial Officer) set to take over as CEO on 1 January 2026. [7]
1. GSK share price and valuation snapshot
As of the last trading session in November, GSK’s U.S. ADR:
- Price: about $47.9
- 52‑week range: roughly $31.7–$48.7
- Market cap: about $95.5 billion
- P/E ratio: ~13.3
- Beta: around 0.5 (less volatile than the broader market)
- Debt‑to‑equity: about 1.07; quick ratio ~0.57, current ratio ~0.87 (not a cash‑rich balance sheet, but typical for a large, dividend‑paying pharma). [8]
On performance, multiple outlets highlight GSK as a standout among European pharma names in 2025. Reuters has noted that GSK shares have outperformed European peers this year, while Zacks reports year‑to‑date gains of about 29%, and other commentators put the 2025 move closer to 30–40%. [9]
From a dividend and yield standpoint:
- GSK pays a quarterly dividend; the company has guided to a 2025 full‑year dividend of 64p per ordinary share, with Q1, Q2 and Q3 all set at 16p. [10]
- For the ADR, that translates to about $1.66 per share annually, implying a yield around 3.4–3.6% at current prices. [11]
- Adjusted for underlying earnings (excluding one‑off litigation charges), dividend payout ratios are generally in the mid‑40% range, which is manageable for a mature pharma group. [12]
So, by traditional metrics, GSK today screens as a moderately valued, income‑paying large pharma that has just had a very strong run.
2. What moved GSK stock in 2025?
2.1 Q2 and Q3 beats plus upgraded 2025 guidance
GSK has strung together a series of earnings beats in 2025.
- Q2 2025: The company reported turnover of nearly £8.0 billion, up about 6% at constant currency, with adjusted EPS of 46.5p, beating analyst estimates. Management said it expected full‑year 2025 sales and profit to come in at the top end of its prior guidance range, helped by double‑digit growth in Specialty Medicines. [13]
- Q3 2025: Momentum accelerated. GSK posted £8.5 billion in sales, up 8% at constant exchange rates, and Specialty Medicines grew 16%, powered by HIV, oncology and respiratory drugs. [14]
- HIV sales rose 12%, with long‑acting regimens Apretude and Cabenuva contributing more than three‑quarters of segment growth and now accounting for roughly a quarter of HIV revenues. [15]
- Oncology sales climbed 39%, driven by Jemperli and Ojjaara/Omjjara. [16]
- Vaccines grew modestly overall, with Arexvy (RSV), Shingrix (shingles) and meningitis products offsetting weakness in some established vaccines. [17]
After Q3, GSK raised its 2025 outlook:
- Sales growth: now expected at 6–7% (up from guidance skewed toward the top of the 3–5% range).
- Core operating profit growth:9–11%.
- Core EPS growth:10–12%, up from a prior 6–8% framework. [18]
That earnings trajectory, combined with GSK’s stated ambition to generate >£40 billion in annual revenue by 2031, has underpinned much of the stock’s 2025 rerating. [19]
2.2 Blenrep’s FDA comeback – from setback to growth driver
Few stories in 2025 have been as dramatic for GSK as the revival of Blenrep (belantamab mafodotin), its antibody‑drug conjugate for multiple myeloma.
- In July 2025, an FDA advisory committee voted against approving Blenrep combinations, triggering a >6% drop in GSK shares and raising doubts over management’s target of more than £3 billion in peak Blenrep sales. [20]
- Regulators elsewhere were more receptive: the UK’s MHRA approved Blenrep combinations in April, with subsequent re‑approvals in the EU, Japan, Canada and Switzerland based on new combination data. [21]
The plot twist arrived on 23 October 2025, when the U.S. FDA approved Blenrep in combination with bortezomib and dexamethasone (BVd regimen) for adults with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma who have received at least two prior lines of therapy. [22]
Key details:
- Trials showed a 51% reduction in risk of death and roughly tripled progression‑free survival versus a Johnson & Johnson comparator regimen. [23]
- The approval came despite the earlier negative advisory panel vote, surprising many observers and underscoring the strength of the data package. [24]
- GSK reiterates that Blenrep could exceed £3 billion in annual peak sales globally; multiple independent sources highlight the drug as a key piece of GSK’s long‑term oncology growth story. [25]
Nor is this purely about prestige. Multiple myeloma is a large and expanding market projected to reach tens of billions of dollars by the early 2030s, and BCMA‑targeted therapies like Blenrep are central to evolving treatment algorithms. [26]
For investors, the FDA green light in October has turned Blenrep from a perceived liability back into a major upside driver, though safety management (notably eye toxicity) and competitive dynamics remain important watchpoints. [27]
2.3 Share buyback and long‑term growth targets
Back in February 2025, GSK reported strong Q4 2024 results, launched a £2 billion (about $2.5 billion) share buyback, and raised its long‑term sales ambition from £38 billion to more than £40 billion by 2031. [28]
Highlights from that earlier update:
- 2024 sales rose about 7% to roughly £31 billion, with Specialty Medicines up nearly 20% and oncology sales almost doubling. [29]
- Vaccine revenues declined 4%, mainly due to a softer outlook for RSV vaccine Arexvy in the U.S., where public‑health recommendations and policy uncertainties have weighed on uptake. [30]
- Management emphasised that capital allocation priorities remain R&D and pipeline investment, with the buyback positioned as a use of surplus cash rather than a pivot away from growth. [31]
That combination – rising long‑term targets, stronger specialty drug growth, and a modest buyback – helped reset sentiment early in the year and laid the groundwork for 2025’s share‑price re‑rating.
2.4 Zantac litigation: from existential scare to managed risk
The Zantac (ranitidine) lawsuits were, for a time, the biggest reason many investors avoided GSK. In 2024, the company recorded a sizeable litigation charge and faced tens of thousands of U.S. claims alleging that ranitidine degraded into the carcinogen NDMA. [32]
By late 2024, however, GSK had:
- Reached settlement agreements resolving about 93% of U.S. state‑court Zantac product liability cases, covering roughly 80,000 claims, for up to $2.2 billion without admitting liability. [33]
Some litigation still persists (particularly involving other defendants and residual cases), and the issue is not entirely gone. But for equity holders, the tail risk now looks far smaller and largely quantified, which has undeniably contributed to the improvement in GSK’s equity story in 2025.
3. New November 2025 developments: LTZ deal and Jemperli license fight
As of late November 2025, GSK’s newsflow is dominated by two oncology‑related stories that point in opposite directions: strategic expansion on the one hand and contractual disputes on the other.
3.1 LTZ Therapeutics collaboration on myeloid cell engagers
On 19 November 2025, GSK announced a strategic research collaboration with LTZ Therapeutics, a U.S. immunotherapy biotech, to develop novel myeloid cell engagers (MCEs) across up to four haematologic and solid‑tumour indications. [34]
Key points:
- GSK is paying $50 million upfront, with additional milestone and royalty payments if programmes advance. [35]
- The collaboration plugs into GSK’s growing oncology franchise and ADC experience, potentially broadening its footprint beyond Blenrep and Jemperli. [36]
For investors, the LTZ deal underlines GSK’s willingness to partner for cutting‑edge immuno‑oncology platforms rather than relying solely on internal discovery – a sensible strategy given the pace of innovation and the size of the oncology prize.
3.2 Tesaro vs. AnaptysBio: the Jemperli license dispute
On 20 November 2025, GSK subsidiary Tesaro, Inc. disclosed that it had filed suit in Delaware Chancery Court against AnaptysBio, Inc., alleging material breach of their license agreement covering the immunotherapy Jemperli (dostarlimab). [37]
According to GSK’s stock‑exchange announcement and related SEC filings:
- Tesaro claims that recent AnaptysBio conduct violated the license terms and is seeking declaratory relief and potentially a reduction (by as much as 50%) in payments due to AnaptysBio. [38]
- AnaptysBio quickly responded with its own litigation, arguing that Tesaro itself is in breach and contesting GSK’s assertions. [39]
Financially, the dispute is about who gets what share of Jemperli’s economics. Jemperli is one of GSK’s fastest‑growing oncology assets, with sales up 79% year‑on‑year in Q3. [40]
For shareholders, this legal wrangle introduces some near‑term noise but also potential upside:
- If GSK prevails, it could keep a larger portion of Jemperli’s future cashflows.
- Litigation, however, is costly and unpredictable; the market typically applies a discount until a clearer resolution emerges.
4. CEO transition: Emma Walmsley out, Luke Miels in
On 29 September 2025, GSK announced that Emma Walmsley, CEO since 2017 and the first woman to lead a major global pharma, will step down from the board on 31 December 2025. She will remain with the company until 30 September 2026 to support the transition and advise on geopolitics and new technologies. [41]
Her successor is Luke Miels, currently Chief Commercial Officer, who becomes CEO on 1 January 2026:
- Miels has been with GSK since 2017 and has overseen a commercial portfolio generating £20+ billion in annual sales across more than 100 countries. [42]
- He previously held senior roles at AstraZeneca, Roche and Sanofi, giving him a more traditional pharma‑operating background than Walmsley’s earlier consumer‑goods career. [43]
Market reaction to the leadership change has been broadly positive:
- The Financial Times and others framed the move as a natural next stage after Walmsley’s transformation of GSK into a pure biopharma company following the 2022 Haleon spin‑off. [44]
- Barron’s highlighted the stock’s 2–3% rise on the announcement, interpreting Miels’ appointment as a vote for continued focus on specialty medicines and commercial execution. [45]
Still, the incoming CEO faces meaningful challenges:
- High‑profile patent expiries, notably on the HIV drug dolutegravir later in the decade. [46]
- The need to deliver on 2031 sales targets and pipeline promises (15+ launches with peak sales potential >£2 billion each) in the face of intense competition in vaccines, HIV and oncology. [47]
- Navigating a politically charged U.S. environment for vaccines and drug pricing, where GSK is heavily exposed through its immunisation portfolio. [48]
For investors, the transition is best thought of as an inflection point rather than a reset: Walmsley leaves after re‑orienting GSK toward high‑value biopharma; Miels inherits a healthier, more focused platform but also the burden of execution.
5. GSK stock forecast: what analysts and models say
5.1 Wall Street consensus
According to MarketBeat’s latest aggregation (late November 2025):
- Consensus rating:“Hold”, based on 7 analysts.
- 1 Sell
- 4 Hold
- 2 Buy [49]
- Average 12‑month price target:$44.13, implying about 7–8% downside from the recent close near $47.8.
- Target range: low $35.25, high $53.00. [50]
In late November, Bank of America upgraded GSK from “underperform” to “neutral”, citing the Q3 earnings beat, raised guidance and a more favourable risk‑reward profile, while still acknowledging limited near‑term upside with the shares trading close to a 52‑week high. [51]
Other notable views:
- Morningstar describes GSK as “moderately undervalued”, emphasising the strength of its specialty‑medicines portfolio and long‑term pipeline relative to the current valuation. [52]
- Retail‑focused outlets like The Motley Fool and various Yahoo Finance columns have pointed to GSK as a potentially attractive “defensive growth” holding, arguing that even after a 30%+ rally, the valuation remains reasonable versus peers. [53]
5.2 Earnings and revenue forecasts
Data collated by StockAnalysis suggests that analyst models currently expect: [54]
- Revenue 2025: around £33.3 billion, up roughly 6% from 2024.
- Revenue 2026: about £35.0 billion, a further 5% increase.
- EPS 2025: about 1.69 (GBP basis), which implies a >170% jump versus 2024 on a GAAP basis (heavily distorted by past Zantac charges).
- EPS 2026: around 1.86, or roughly 11% growth over 2025.
Taken together, these numbers line up reasonably well with management’s own guidance for mid‑single‑digit revenue growth and high‑single‑ to low‑double‑digit EPS growth in the medium term. [55]
5.3 London‑listed shares and AI‑style forecasts
On the London Stock Exchange, analysts tracking the GSK ordinary shares (ticker GSK) currently cite an average price target around 1,800 pence, with a range from roughly 1,200p to 2,520p, again implying a fairly mixed but not wildly bullish consensus. [56]
Meanwhile, a growing ecosystem of AI‑driven forecasting sites offers a scatter of projections:
- One model (Meyka) sees GSK’s U.S. ADR drifting to around $39 by 2026 and $42–43 by 2030, implying mid‑teens downside from today’s price in the medium term. [57]
- Another (Tradestie) posits a bullish 2026 target around $54.7, roughly +15% upside from current levels. [58]
- Forecasts on OTC line GLAXF show an average 2026 projection of about $21.3 vs. ~$23.4 now, implying mild downside. [59]
These AI projections are not regulated research and tend to vary widely, but they do highlight the same point as human analysts: after 2025’s rally, expectations are balanced rather than euphoric.
6. Dividend, cash returns and balance sheet
Income‑oriented investors have plenty to watch with GSK:
- Dividend: Management has signalled an expected 64p per share total dividend for 2025, paid quarterly at 16p, with Q3’s dividend already declared and paid dates set into January 2026. [60]
- Yield: At current ADR prices, that’s roughly 3.4–3.6%, competitive with other big European pharma names yet above many U.S. large‑caps. [61]
- Payout coverage: On a GAAP trailing basis the payout ratio looks high due to Zantac‑related charges, but on normalised earnings (and forward estimates) multiple sources put the payout ratio around 45–50%, leaving room for R&D and bolt‑on deals. [62]
- Buybacks: The £2 billion buyback launched in early 2025 is the first in more than a decade, signalling management confidence in cash generation despite ongoing pipeline investment. [63]
Leverage is not trivial – a debt‑to‑equity ratio just over 1.0 – but cash flows from HIV, vaccines and now Blenrep should give the incoming CEO room to manage both shareholder returns and the pipeline.
7. Key risks for GSK shareholders
Despite the positive 2025 narrative, investors in GSK stock should keep a clear eye on the risk ledger.
7.1 Competitive pressure in vaccines and respiratory medicines
GSK’s vaccine franchise, once the primary growth engine, is under increasing pressure:
- The RSV vaccine Arexvy has faced U.S. headwinds from shifting public‑health guidance and competition, contributing to a 4% decline in vaccine sales in 2024 despite growth elsewhere. [64]
- Moderna’s mRNA‑1010 flu vaccine recently posted Phase III data showing about 26.6% better efficacy than GSK’s standard shot in adults aged 50+, highlighting the disruptive potential of mRNA platforms against traditional vaccines. [65]
Although GSK continues to grow Shingrix, meningitis and RSV vaccines globally, it no longer enjoys the same clear dominance it once did, especially in the U.S.
7.2 Pricing, tariffs and politics
GSK is heavily exposed to U.S. and European policy changes:
- The company has explicitly factored in new 15% tariffs on European pharma exports to the U.S. in its 2025 revenue and EPS guidance, underscoring that trade policy can directly affect margins. [66]
- The broader vaccine and drug‑pricing debate in the U.S. has intensified, with shifting political leadership at the Department of Health and Human Services creating uncertainty for immunisation programmes and reimbursement. GSK management has flagged this as a risk to short‑term vaccine revenue. [67]
7.3 Execution risk in the pipeline
GSK’s long‑term growth narrative relies heavily on a deep but still‑unproven pipeline:
- Management talks about 15 “scale opportunities” (each >£2 billion peak sales potential) scheduled to launch between 2025 and 2031, across oncology, respiratory, HIV and infectious disease. [68]
- One of the most immediate catalysts is depemokimab, an IL‑5–targeting biologic for severe asthma and chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps, with a PDUFA date of 16 December 2025. [69]
Phase III data on depemokimab are encouraging, and external analysts expect approval – but until the FDA decision is in, regulatory risk remains real. [70]
The Blenrep saga shows how quickly sentiment can swing: the same drug produced a steep share‑price fall after a negative advisory vote in July and a more muted reaction to a surprise FDA approval in October. [71]
7.4 Litigation and governance
While Zantac settlements have reduced legal tail risk, they haven’t entirely removed it:
- Some federal cases and other actions remain, and total costs could still evolve, even if the core financial impact appears largely provisioned. [72]
- The Tesaro–AnaptysBio dispute over Jemperli adds a new layer of legal uncertainty tied directly to a key growth asset. [73]
On governance, Walmsley’s generous post‑exit benefits have drawn criticism in the UK press, which may keep executive pay and board decisions under scrutiny during the CEO transition. [74]
8. Bottom line: Is GSK stock attractive after the 2025 rally?
As of 1 December 2025, GSK plc sits at an intriguing crossroads:
- The good news:
- Earnings momentum is strong, with Q2 and Q3 beats and higher 2025 guidance. [75]
- The Blenrep comeback restores a large, high‑margin oncology revenue stream that markets had partially written off. [76]
- The Zantac overhang is substantially reduced, even if not entirely eliminated. [77]
- Dividends and buybacks provide a solid capital‑return floor. [78]
- The caution flags:
- After a 30–40% rally, the stock is no longer obviously cheap, which is reflected in a consensus “Hold” rating and price targets slightly below the current level. [79]
- Competition in vaccines and respiratory and political risks in GSK’s core markets are intensifying rather than fading. [80]
- The leadership transition to Luke Miels is promising but untested at the CEO level, and investors will be watching early 2026 closely for any strategic shifts or missteps. [81]
In short, GSK now looks less like a deep‑value turnaround and more like a fully‑valued, income‑generating growth compounder. For long‑term investors who:
- Want exposure to HIV, oncology and vaccine innovation,
- Are comfortable with regulatory and litigation risk in exchange for strong cash flows, and
- Appreciate a 3–4% dividend yield plus modest buybacks,
GSK can still make sense as a core holding.
For traders or valuation purists looking for a clear margin of safety, however, the current price near all‑time highs – and the analyst consensus for flat to slightly down 12‑month returns – suggests the risk‑reward is now more balanced than it was at the start of 2025.
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. www.tradingview.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. www.gsk.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.gsk.com, 7. www.gsk.com, 8. www.marketbeat.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.gsk.com, 11. stockanalysis.com, 12. simplywall.st, 13. www.gsk.com, 14. www.gsk.com, 15. www.tradingview.com, 16. www.tradingview.com, 17. www.gsk.com, 18. www.gsk.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.fda.gov, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.oncologypipeline.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.ft.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.ft.com, 33. www.gsk.com, 34. www.gsk.com, 35. www.gsk.com, 36. www.gsk.com, 37. www.gsk.com, 38. www.gsk.com, 39. ir.anaptysbio.com, 40. www.tradingview.com, 41. www.gsk.com, 42. www.gsk.com, 43. www.reuters.com, 44. www.ft.com, 45. www.barrons.com, 46. www.ft.com, 47. www.gsk.com, 48. www.reuters.com, 49. www.marketbeat.com, 50. www.marketbeat.com, 51. www.marketbeat.com, 52. global.morningstar.com, 53. www.fool.com, 54. stockanalysis.com, 55. www.gsk.com, 56. www.tradingview.com, 57. meyka.com, 58. tradestie.com, 59. stockscan.io, 60. www.gsk.com, 61. stockanalysis.com, 62. simplywall.st, 63. www.reuters.com, 64. www.reuters.com, 65. www.zacks.com, 66. www.reuters.com, 67. www.reuters.com, 68. www.gsk.com, 69. www.gsk.com, 70. www.fiercebiotech.com, 71. www.reuters.com, 72. www.gsk.com, 73. www.gsk.com, 74. www.thetimes.co.uk, 75. www.gsk.com, 76. www.reuters.com, 77. www.gsk.com, 78. stockanalysis.com, 79. www.marketbeat.com, 80. www.reuters.com, 81. www.gsk.com
