GSK plc (LSE: GSK; NYSE: GSK) is ending 2025 in full “pipeline flex” mode. On 10 December 2025 the company announced fresh US regulatory momentum for an experimental lung cancer drug and a new oncology collaboration, while the share price sits near multi‑year highs after a year of strong earnings and upgraded guidance. [1]
Below is a deep dive into today’s news, how GSK shares are trading, what analysts are forecasting, and where the risk/reward balance looks to be heading into 2026. This is information, not personalised investment advice.
GSK share price today: still near the top of its 2025 range
In London, GSK shares were trading around 1,780 pence on Wednesday morning, down roughly 0.3–0.4% on the day, but up about 29–32% over the past 12 months. [2]
- London listing (LSE: GSK)
- ~1,776–1,782p intraday on 10 December 2025
- 12‑month share price change: about +29% [3]
- US ADR (NYSE: GSK)
From a pure “chart nerd” perspective:
- GSK’s ADR has a Relative Strength (RS) Rating of 84, putting it ahead of most stocks in the market on 12‑month performance. [6]
- Technical models describe the overall trend as bullish but extended: the stock has broken out of a cup‑with‑handle pattern and is now “out of buy range,” with RSI around the high‑60s and shares trading above key moving averages. [7]
Short version: the market already noticed GSK in 2025. Today’s news is arriving after a big run, not at the bottom of the chart.
Today’s big catalyst: FDA orphan-drug status for risvutatug rezetecan (GSK’227)
The headline news on 10 December is that the US Food and Drug Administration has granted Orphan Drug Designation (ODD) to risvutatug rezetecan (development code GSK’227), a B7‑H3‑targeted antibody–drug conjugate (ADC), for the treatment of small‑cell lung cancer (SCLC). [8]
Key points from GSK’s SEC filing and press release: [9]
- Indication: SCLC, an aggressive lung cancer representing about 13% of all lung cancers in the US.
- Disease burden: Around 29,500 new SCLC cases in the US in 2025; 70% present with extensive‑stage disease. Five‑year survival in extensive‑stage SCLC is roughly 3%, and median overall survival after relapse is about 8 months with current standard of care.
- Clinical data: ODD is based on preliminary phase I ARTEMIS‑001 data, where risvutatug rezetecan showed durable responses in patients with extensive‑stage SCLC.
- Regulatory “badge collection”: This is the fifth major regulatory designation for the drug:
- EMA Orphan Drug for pulmonary neuroendocrine carcinoma (includes SCLC)
- EMA PRIME (Priority Medicines) for relapsed extensive‑stage SCLC
- US FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation for relapsed/refractory ES‑SCLC
- US FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation for late‑line relapsed/refractory osteosarcoma
- Now US FDA Orphan Drug Designation for SCLC
- Development stage: A global phase III trial in relapsed ES‑SCLC started in August 2025 (NCT07099898), making that read‑out the next big value inflection point. [10]
What Orphan Drug Designation actually gives GSK:
- Up to 7 years of market exclusivity in the US if the drug is approved for the orphan indication
- Tax credits on clinical trial costs
- Waivers or reductions of FDA fees
Alliance News summed up the market’s first reaction neatly: the stock slipped about 0.4% in London after the announcement, with the 12‑month gain still around +29%. [11]
So the market is treating this as incrementally positive but not thesis‑changing news: another serious badge on a promising but still clinical‑stage oncology asset.
New oncology collaboration with Oxford BioTherapeutics
Also dated 10 December, Oxford BioTherapeutics (OBT) announced a multi‑year, multi‑target strategic collaboration with GSK. [12]
- The deal combines OBT’s OGAP®‑Verify target discovery platform with GSK’s drug‑development and commercial infrastructure.
- The goal is to discover “potentially first‑in‑class antibody‑based therapeutics” for cancer, with a focus on immuno‑oncology and ADCs.
- Financial terms weren’t fully disclosed, but the structure is the usual biotech–big‑pharma template: upfront plus milestones, with GSK holding development and commercial rights to selected targets.
Strategically, this lines up with GSK’s October 2025 messaging, where Bank of America highlighted 2026 as an unusually busy year for GSK oncology with two launches (Blenrep and depemokimab) and three key pipeline events (Camlipixant, Bepirovirsen, and an HIV investor day). [13]
Taken together with the risvutatug news, today’s updates reinforce the narrative that post‑Haleon GSK is trying very hard to be seen as an oncology‑and‑vaccines growth story, not just an old‑line respiratory and HIV company.
Fundamentals check: Q3 2025 beat and upgraded 2025 guidance
GSK’s current share‑price strength isn’t happening in a vacuum; it’s anchored in a strong Q3 2025 print and a guidance upgrade at the end of October. [14]
From the Q3 report (fiscal quarter ended 30 September 2025):
- Core EPS: $1.48 per ADR, beating the consensus estimate of $1.26 and up 11% year‑on‑year (14% CER). [15]
- Revenue: $11.52 billion (≈£8.55 billion), up 7% reported / 8% at constant exchange rates, also above consensus. [16]
Segment performance at constant exchange rates: [17]
- Specialty Medicines: +16%
- HIV franchise +12%, driven by two‑drug regimens like Dovato and long‑acting Apretude/Cabenuva (up 75% and 48%, respectively).
- Oncology +39%, with strong growth in Jemperli and new myelofibrosis drug Ojjaara/Omjjara.
- General Medicines: +4%, with Trelegy Ellipta up 25%.
- Vaccines: +2%, with Shingrix up 13%, Bexsero meningitis up 11% and Arexvy RSV vaccine up 36%, largely ex‑US.
Most importantly for valuation, GSK raised its 2025 outlook: [18]
- Sales growth: from “towards the top of 3–5%” to 6–7%
- Core operating profit: from 6–8% to 9–11% growth
- Core EPS: from 6–8% to 10–12% growth
This was Emma Walmsley’s last full quarterly report as CEO and was widely seen as handing her successor a reasonably solid starting point, despite ongoing pricing and tariff concerns. [19]
CEO transition: Walmsley out, Miels in – a 2026 wildcard
GSK has already flagged a leadership turn:
- CEO Emma Walmsley steps down from the board on 31 December 2025 and will support a transition through September 2026. [20]
- Luke Miels, GSK’s Chief Commercial Officer since 2017, becomes CEO from 1 January 2026. [21]
Investors generally see Miels as a more traditional pharma operator with a deep oncology and specialty‑medicines background. Reuters highlighted that he will be tasked with steering GSK toward its longer‑term goal of over £40 billion in annual revenue by 2031, from an estimated mid‑£30 billions today. [22]
The CEO transition introduces classic “execution risk”: new strategy emphasis, possibly different M&A appetite, and potential re‑prioritisation within the pipeline. But the fact that the transition is internal, not an external shake‑up, has been taken as moderately reassuring by the market so far.
Litigation overhang: Zantac largely contained, risk profile improving
The once‑dominant bear case on GSK was “Zantac could blow up the balance sheet.” That story looks very different now.
Key developments:
- GSK has already agreed to pay up to $2.2–2.3 billion to resolve roughly 80,000 Zantac (ranitidine) lawsuits, covering about 93% of US state‑court cases. [23]
- A Delaware Supreme Court ruling on 10 July 2025 excluded key plaintiff expert evidence as unreliable, a major win for GSK and other manufacturers in a venue that hosts tens of thousands of remaining cases. [24]
There are still tail‑risk scenarios (some federal and residual state cases, plus broader industry reputational risk), but compared with 2022–23 the Zantac overhang is now far more quantifiable. That makes it easier for investors to focus on GSK’s operating performance and pipeline rather than worst‑case legal scenarios.
Balance sheet, margins and valuation: not “deep value,” but not bubble territory
A recent GuruFocus analysis paints a “strong business, not‑so‑perfect balance sheet” picture: [25]
- Revenue: about $41.4 billion, with a 3‑year growth rate of 7.5%
- Margins:
- Operating margin ≈ 21%
- Net margin ≈ 10.8%
- Gross margin ≈ 71%
- Leverage & liquidity:
- Current ratio 0.87 (tight short‑term liquidity)
- Debt‑to‑equity 1.17 (moderate leverage)
- Altman Z‑Score 1.87, in the “grey zone” where financial stress isn’t imminent but not trivial either
- Valuation metrics:
- P/E ≈ 20.8, above a historical median around 15.4
- P/S ≈ 2.22, slightly above its own history
- P/B ≈ 4.65
Analyst sentiment in that framework is “cautiously optimistic”, with an average recommendation around Hold and a beta around 0.3, meaning GSK historically wiggles less than the overall market. [26]
Dividend and capital returns
- GSK declared a Q3 2025 dividend of 16p per share and reiterated 64p per share as its full‑year dividend target. [27]
- Zacks previously cited a dividend yield around 4.3–4.4%, comfortably above the S&P 500 and sector average. [28]
On top of dividends, GSK has been aggressively buying back stock:
- Recent transactions have included daily purchases of hundreds of thousands of shares; one analysis noted an additional 248,000 shares acquired via BNP Paribas, taking treasury shares to about 237 million (5.8% of voting rights). [29]
- A TradingView summary notes that on 10 December 2025 GSK’s buyback programme had accumulated about 238.19 million shares in treasury, or 5.84% of its 4.08 billion shares. [30]
So investors are getting a mix of mid‑single‑digit sales growth, double‑digit EPS growth, a 4%+ dividend yield and a chunky buyback, at a valuation that’s somewhat richer than GSK’s own history but still at a discount to some high‑growth US peers.
What Wall Street and the quants are saying about GSK stock
Street price targets: mixed, but tilting slightly cautious
- Bank of America recently turned more constructive, upgrading GSK from Underperform to Neutral and lifting its price objective to 2,000p. The analysts highlighted 2026 as an unusually busy year, with projected 2026 sales of ~£275m for Blenrep and ~£340m for depemokimab, both ahead of consensus. [31]
- JPMorgan remains more sceptical: it maintains an Underweight rating, even after raising its UK price target to 1,500p from 1,400p, arguing that consensus may still be too optimistic in areas like HIV and vaccines. [32]
- Berenberg Bank recently nudged its target up to 1,660p with a Hold rating, implying about 7–8% downside from current levels; MarketBeat aggregates a mean target near 1,760p and classifies overall consensus as Hold. [33]
On the US ADRs, MarketBeat reports an average 12‑month target around $44 per share, which is modestly below the recent ~$47 price — suggesting that, on average, analysts think the 2025 re‑rating has pulled forward some of the upside. [34]
Quant and technical models: short-term bullish, long-term more cautious
- Zacks currently tags GSK as a “Strong Growth Stock” with a VGM Score of B but only a #3 (Hold) Rank, meaning earnings‑revision momentum isn’t screamingly bullish but fundamentals and momentum screens both like the name. [35]
- Intellectia’s AI model:
- 1‑day prediction: −1.7%
- 1‑week prediction: +4.2%
- 1‑month prediction: +7.7%
- But a 2026 projection about 29% lower than today’s price and a 2030 target still below current levels. Their system calls GSK a “Strong Buy candidate” in the near term, but neutral‑to‑negative over longer horizons. [36]
- TradersUnion technical analysis sees:
- Current UK price around 1,780p, slightly below the 20‑day moving average, but still above the 50‑day and long‑term trend lines
- Expected near‑term trading range 1,790–1,835p with an 80%+ probability of further gains, helped by buybacks and supportive indicators, though overbought oscillators and intraday volatility are flagged as risks. [37]
- Investor’s Business Daily credits GSK’s ADR with an RS Rating of 84 and notes that the stock has already cleared a cup‑with‑handle buy point at $40.57 and is now considered extended — code for “maybe wait for a pullback if you’re a disciplined growth investor.” [38]
The message is pretty consistent: momentum is good, fundamentals are solid, but the stock is no longer cheap or under‑the‑radar.
The investment case after today’s news: bull vs bear checklist
Bullish arguments
- Oncology and vaccines as growth engines
- Strong double‑digit growth in oncology and HIV, plus continued strength in Shingrix and Arexvy, support a credible path to mid‑single‑digit sales growth and double‑digit EPS growth in the medium term. [39]
- Pipeline momentum and regulatory tailwinds
- Blenrep’s US approval for relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma, depemokimab in severe asthma, and now risvutatug rezetecan in SCLC give GSK genuine “optionality” in high‑value indications. [40]
- Multiple Breakthrough/Orphan/PRIME designations reduce some regulatory and commercial risk if the data hold up. [41]
- Zantac and legal risk moving into the rear‑view mirror
- Multi‑billion‑dollar settlements plus a favourable Delaware Supreme Court ruling make Zantac still painful but far less existential than feared in 2022. [42]
- Shareholder returns are meaningful
- ~4%+ dividend yield plus an active buyback (treasury holding >5.8% of shares) effectively “pays investors to wait” as the pipeline matures. [43]
- Low beta, defensive-ish profile
- With a beta around 0.3, GSK has historically been less volatile than the broader market, which some investors love in a choppy macro environment. [44]
Bearish arguments
- Valuation is no longer a screaming bargain
- P/E and P/S are both above their historical medians, and several fundamental models flag the shares as fairly valued or only modestly undervalued relative to fair‑value estimates. [45]
- Longer‑term models are wary
- AI‑driven forecasts that love GSK over the next month or two still see lower prices by 2026 and muted long‑term upside, suggesting the recent run may have front‑loaded returns. [46]
- HIV and respiratory patent cliffs
- GSK’s HIV franchise remains hugely profitable but faces patent expiries later in the decade, while US respiratory drugs face continued pricing pressure, especially under IRA‑related changes. [47]
- Balance sheet not bulletproof
- A current ratio below 1 and a marginal Altman Z‑Score mean this is not the steel‑plated balance sheet some investors prefer, especially after large legal settlements and ongoing R&D demands. [48]
- Execution risk under a new CEO
- Even though Luke Miels is an insider, any leadership change at a >£90bn pharma company introduces strategic and cultural uncertainty, particularly around capital allocation (M&A vs buybacks vs R&D). [49]
So, is GSK stock attractive after the 10 December news?
From an investor’s perspective, today’s updates don’t radically change the GSK story, but they reinforce one key theme:
GSK is doubling down on oncology and advanced biologics (ADCs, immunology) while enjoying a strong 2025 earnings year and gradually shedding its litigation baggage.
The FDA orphan‑drug designation for risvutatug rezetecan and the Oxford BioTherapeutics collaboration are both strategically positive but financially early‑stage; the true economic value will only be clear once the phase III data arrive. [50]
At the same time, the stock is:
- Near 12‑month highs
- Well‑owned by quantitative growth/value screens
- Rated largely Hold/Neutral by fundamental analysts, despite at least one major bank (BofA) nudging targets higher on pipeline optimism. [51]
Put crudely: GSK no longer trades like a “troubled value trap,” but it also doesn’t yet command a premium multiple for its pipeline. For long‑term investors who are comfortable with pharma risk, a 4%+ yield, buybacks, and a strengthening oncology franchise will look appealing. For more valuation‑sensitive investors, the current price may look more like “hold and re‑assess after the next round of data and 2026 guidance.”
References
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