GSK Stock Outlook December 2025: Q3 Beat, Buybacks and Big FDA Decisions Shape 2026 Forecasts

As of December 3, 2025, GSK plc (LSE:GSK, NYSE:GSK) is trading near multi‑year highs after a year of earnings beats, a revived oncology franchise, heavy share buybacks and an unusually busy FDA calendar for December. At the same time, analysts are still only lukewarm on the stock, and long‑term growth expectations lag management’s ambitions.

This is a deep dive into where GSK stock stands today, what’s driving the rally, and what current news and forecasts are signalling about 2026 and beyond.

GSK share price today and 2025 performance

On the NYSE, GSK’s U.S. ADR is trading around $48.27 in early Wednesday trading on December 3, 2025.

MarketBeat data shows a 12‑month low near $31.72 and a recent high around $48.69, putting the current price a little over 50% above the 12‑month trough and just shy of the recent peak. ^[1]
On the London Stock Exchange, GSK closed at 1,819p on December 2, up 1.06% on the day. ^[2]

Valuation remains in “sensible rather than bubble” territory:

Trailing P/E is about the low‑to‑mid teens (around 13.5x on MarketBeat’s numbers). ^[3]
The dividend yield is roughly 3.4–3.5%, based on a 2025 dividend per share around 63–64p and the current UK share price. ^[4]

In other words, GSK has rerated sharply from its 2023–24 gloom, but it is not priced like a high‑growth biotech rocket. It still looks like a yield‑plus‑moderate‑growth big pharma name.

Capital returns: buybacks and dividends in focus

The shareholder payout story is front and centre in 2025:

In February 2025, GSK launched a £2 billion share buyback alongside strong Q4 2024 results and an upgraded 2031 sales target to “over £40 billion.” ^[5]
Reuters and FT reporting noted that the Q4 beat plus the buyback sent the shares up 6–8% on the day and helped kick‑start the 2025 rally. ^[6]

The buyback is very much alive as of early December:

A recent Stock Exchange announcement and subsequent coverage show GSK has repurchased over 11.3 million shares since September under the programme and is holding about 236.8 million shares in treasury, roughly 5.81% of issued share capital. ^[7]
On December 1, the company disclosed another ~203,000 shares bought back on the London market. ^[8]

On top of that, management is still leaning into equity‑linked incentives:

A late‑November filing described share option grants under the 2022 Save As You Earn plan, with executives receiving options at £14.19 for 643 shares each, a modest but symbolic move aligning management with shareholders at current price levels. ^[9]

Consensus from GSK’s own analyst‑compiled data points to:

2025 dividend per share of 63.6p, rising gradually to ~75p by 2031, with free cash flow expected to grow from about £3.35bn in 2025 to over £7bn by the end of the decade. ^[10]

For income‑oriented investors, that combination of mid‑3% yield plus buybacks and FCF growth is a big part of the GSK story.

Earnings momentum: Q3 2025 beat and guidance upgrade

GSK’s Q3 2025 numbers, reported on October 29, were the main fundamental catalyst for the latest leg of the rally:

Group sales grew around 8% at constant exchange rates, with growth in every product area and geography. ^[11]
Specialty Medicines revenue rose ~19%, led by Respiratory/Immunology & Inflammation (RI&I), Oncology and HIV. ^[12]
Core operating profit increased about 8% (11% at CER) in the quarter, and profit before tax more than doubled versus Q3 2024, helped by much lower litigation costs. ^[13]

From the ADR’s perspective, MarketBeat’s earnings summary highlights:

Core EPS of roughly $1.48, ahead of a consensus just above $1.25.
Revenue of about $11.35 billion, beating analyst estimates and up mid‑single digits year‑on‑year. ^[14]

Crucially, management raised full‑year 2025 guidance:

Turnover growth now guided to 6–7% at CER, with core EPS growth of 10–12%, up from a previous target around the top end of 6–8%. ^[15]

That upgrade – GSK’s second year in a row of beat‑and‑raise – is one big reason why the share price is now near its 52‑week high.

Specialty medicines and oncology: from repair job to growth engine

The most dramatic transformation is in specialty medicines, particularly Oncology and HIV.

HIV and RI&I

Q3 HIV revenue reached about £1.94 billion, up 12% year‑on‑year, driven by long‑acting injectable regimens like Cabenuva (treatment) and Apretude (pre‑exposure prophylaxis), plus once‑daily oral regimen Dovato. ^[16]
RI&I products brought in £954 million, up 15–16% at CER, with Nucala and Benlysta both growing double digits. Nucala’s launch in COPD is off to a strong start, and it is effectively paving the way for successor biologic depemokimab. ^[17]

GSK’s own consensus page shows HIV revenue expected to peak mid‑decade near £8 billion before gradually declining as older dolutegravir‑based regimens lose exclusivity, with growth increasingly shifting to long‑acting cabotegravir regimens and pipeline HIV assets. ^[18]

Blenrep’s comeback and the oncology pivot

After being pulled from the U.S. in 2022, Blenrep (belantamab mafodotin) is back:

On October 23, 2025, the FDA approved Blenrep + bortezomib + dexamethasone (BVd) for adults with relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma after at least two prior therapies. ^[19]
The regimen offers a significant reduction in risk of death and a tripling of progression‑free survival versus a standard daratumumab‑based triplet in the pivotal trial, and – importantly – is accessible in the U.S. community setting, where roughly 70% of myeloma patients are treated. ^[20]

Blenrep is now:

Approved in the U.S. in third‑line plus,
Approved in multiple markets in Europe and internationally in second‑line or later,
Backed by a development plan pushing it into earlier‑line disease by late decade. ^[21]

Within Q3 2025:

Oncology sales climbed to about £511 million, up nearly 40% at CER, driven by Jemperli and Ojjaara with early contributions from Blenrep’s ex‑U.S. relaunch. ^[22]
Jemperli sales hit roughly £230 million, up almost 80%, as it cements a strong position in endometrial cancer and expands into colorectal and other indications. ^[23]

Analysts and independent commentators now generally agree that Oncology is no longer a pure “fix‑it” story but a genuine second growth pillar, alongside HIV and RI&I. ^[24]

Vaccines: RSV growing, but with policy and competition headwinds

The vaccines business is more complicated:

2024 results showed vaccine revenue down about 4%, in part because early sales for Arexvy, GSK’s RSV vaccine for older adults, disappointed compared with the initial hype and faced more restrictive U.S. recommendations and safety wording on RSV shots. ^[25]
In 2025, Arexvy continues to grow globally and is being rolled out in more markets and age‑risk segments, but it is not yet clear it will hit the previously touted “mega‑blockbuster” peak‑sales levels. ^[26]

Meanwhile, regulatory noise around vaccines hasn’t gone away:

A recent Reuters feature highlighted ongoing U.S. debate over changes to vaccine recommendations and pricing, and TradingView’s latest GSK note flagged an upcoming vote by a U.S. committee over the timing of a vaccine‑related decision – a reminder of how advisory panels can suddenly shift demand. ^[27]

Vaccines are still a big earnings contributor – consensus has the vaccines division growing from about £9.1bn in 2025 to over £11bn by 2031, led by Shingrix, Arexvy and a meningitis franchise that includes Bexsero and Penmenvy. But investors have learned to treat vaccine guidance with more caution than they did during the COVID boom. ^[28]

December 2025 FDA catalysts: depemokimab and gepotidacin

December is unusually important for GSK’s pipeline:

Depemokimab (ultra‑long‑acting IL‑5 biologic)

Depemokimab is an ultra‑long‑acting anti‑IL‑5 monoclonal antibody dosed twice a year, being reviewed for:
- Asthma with type 2 inflammation in patients ≥12 years, and
- Chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (CRSwNP) in adults. ^[29]
The FDA accepted GSK’s BLA in March 2025 and assigned a PDUFA date of December 16, 2025. ^[30]

Given:

The rapid uptake GSK is already seeing with Nucala in COPD, and
Consensus forecasts that depemokimab could be a multi‑billion‑pound asset by the early 2030s, ^[31]

this decision is widely seen as a major medium‑term growth catalyst for the RI&I portfolio.

Gepotidacin / Blujepa (oral antibiotic)

GSK is also seeking approval for gepotidacin (branded Blujepa in UTIs) as an oral treatment for uncomplicated urogenital gonorrhoea in patients 12+ years old. ^[32]
An RTT News FDA calendar lists December 11, 2025 as the anticipated decision date for this indication. ^[33]

If approved, gepotidacin would be the first oral treatment in a new class for resistant gonorrhoea, a growing public‑health problem, and would add another durable general‑medicine revenue stream on top of its UTI opportunity. ^[34]

Together, these December events mean GSK could exit 2025 with two additional high‑value launches heading into Luke Miels’ first year as CEO.

Leadership transition: Emma Walmsley out, Luke Miels in

In late September, GSK announced that long‑serving CEO Emma Walmsley will step down at year‑end 2025, with Luke Miels, currently Chief Commercial Officer, becoming CEO from January 1, 2026. ^[35]

Markets liked the choice:

Coverage from MarketWatch, FT and others noted that the stock rallied on the news, as investors saw continuity in strategy with a stronger commercial edge rather than a radical pivot. ^[36]

Walmsley leaves having:

Completed the consumer‑health spin‑off (Haleon),
Settled the bulk of Zantac litigation with a ~$2.2bn deal in 2024, which analysts described as a “best‑case scenario” versus worst‑case fears, ^[37]
Delivered two years of solid earnings beats and upgraded guidance, and
Set an ambitious >£40bn 2031 revenue target. ^[38]

Miels inherits:

A cleaner, more focused biopharma company with strong specialty momentum,
But also a “growth gap” – Street consensus still models 2031 revenue around £34.8bn, about 15% below management’s target, implying that successful pipeline execution and further business‑development deals will be needed. ^[39]

That growth gap is one reason hedge fund Citadel disclosed a sizeable short position (~0.5% of shares) earlier in 2025, highlighting lingering scepticism about the long‑term pipeline. ^[40]

Analyst ratings and GSK stock forecasts

Wall Street / ADR view

MarketBeat’s latest aggregation of U.S.‑listed analyst opinions gives GSK: ^[41]

A “Hold” consensus rating, based on 7 analysts:
- 1 Sell
- 4 Hold
- 2 Buy
An average 12‑month price target of $44.13, implying roughly 9% downside from the recent $48.34 close, with a range from $35.25 to $53.

Zacks’ price‑target data – based on a slightly different analyst set – points to:

A target range of about $35–$55,
An average target implying a low‑single‑digit downside versus the latest price. ^[42]

StockAnalysis, which focuses on earnings modelling, summarises the current consensus as:

2025 revenue around £33.3bn, up ~6% year‑on‑year,
2026 revenue about £35.0bn, up ~5%,
EPS rising from £1.69 in 2025 to £1.86 in 2026, implying roughly 10% EPS growth next year and a forward P/E under 11x on those numbers. ^[43]

The broad message from mainstream brokers: GSK is viewed as fairly valued to slightly expensive after the rally, with solid but not spectacular growth.

London / LSE view

On the London listing (GSK.L):

TradingView’s analyst survey for the UK line shows an average price target around 1,801p, very close to the current 1,819p price, with a wide range between 1,200p and 2,520p reflecting different views on pipeline execution. ^[44]
Technical‑analysis site StockInvest labels GSK.L a “Buy or Hold candidate”, noting a strong rising trend since mid‑September and projecting – somewhat aggressively – that the stock could rise about 27% over the next three months, with a 90% confidence band between roughly 2,255p and 2,437p. ^[45]

Algorithmic forecasts like that are best treated as short‑term trading noise, not investment gospel, but they underscore that technical momentum remains positive.

TipRanks and style‑score takes

TipRanks’ auto‑generated coverage of GB:GSK assigns the stock an “Outperform” rating from its AI “Spark” model, citing: ^[46]

Strong technical indicators,
Positive recent earnings‑call sentiment, and
Reasonable valuation versus peers.

Meanwhile, Zacks recently highlighted GSK as a “top growth stock for the long term” in a style‑score screen, largely on the back of EPS growth inflecting from 2024’s litigation‑dragged base and the strength of specialty medicines. ^[47]

So, if you average all these lenses, analyst sentiment today is cautiously constructive:

Not a screaming bargain,
Not priced for perfection,
Very much dependent on how the December FDA decisions and 2026 Oncology/Vaccines performance play out.

Macro and policy backdrop: Medicare price cuts and litigation

Two long‑running overhangs – U.S. drug‑pricing reform and Zantac litigation – look more manageable now than they did a year ago.

Medicare price negotiations

A November 26 Reuters piece on the latest round of U.S. Medicare negotiated price cuts concluded that: ^[48]

Across big pharma, the cuts were “manageable and largely factored into forecasts.”
For GSK, AstraZeneca and Novo Nordisk, analysts said the impact had already been baked into models.
GSK itself stated, when reporting Q3, that the impact of Medicare price negotiations was fully reflected in its 2025 outlook.

Shares of GSK and AZN actually rose about 1% on the day the new prices were published, suggesting investors saw the news as a relief rather than a fresh threat. ^[49]

Zantac and legal provisions

In October 2024, GSK announced a $2.2bn global Zantac settlement that was widely viewed as better than feared and removed a major tail‑risk scenario. ^[50]
By Q3 2025, GSK’s provisions for legal and other disputes had dropped to around £731m, down from £1.446bn at the end of 2024, reflecting settlement progress and court successes. ^[51]

Legal risk is not zero – big pharma never gets to zero – but Zantac is now treated as a manageable, bounded issue, not an existential cloud over the equity story.

Bull vs bear case going into 2026

Putting all the current news, forecasts and analyses together, the investment debates around GSK as of December 3, 2025 cluster into two narratives.

Bull case: value‑tilted growth compounder

Bulls tend to focus on: Investopedia+4TS2 Tech+4GSK+4

Execution improving: multiple quarters of beats and upgraded guidance, with core EPS now growing double digits.
Oncology inflection: Blenrep’s successful comeback, Jemperli’s rapid ramp and Ojjaara’s growth together give GSK a credible multi‑asset cancer franchise.
Deep pipeline and near‑term catalysts: depemokimab, gepotidacin, Penmenvy and additional specialty launches offer many “shots on goal” over the next 3–5 years.
Attractive income plus buybacks: mid‑3% dividend yield, £2bn buyback and rising free cash flow support mid‑single‑digit annual returns before any growth re‑rating.
Reduced tail risks: Zantac mostly contained; Medicare impact quantified and integrated into guidance; net legal provisions falling.

From this angle, GSK looks like a large‑cap “quality value” name with improving growth and lower downside than in 2022–23.

Bear case: growth gap and structural headwinds

Sceptics emphasise: ^[52]

The 2031 growth gap: consensus still sits ~15% below management’s £40bn‑plus sales ambition, suggesting either the guidance is too bold or more (and potentially expensive) M&A will be needed.
Vaccine uncertainty: RSV vaccine Arexvy faces slower‑than‑hoped uptake, safety‑label worries and competing products, limiting upside from what was once pitched as a huge growth driver.
HIV patent cliffs: the HIV franchise is excellent today but consensus explicitly shows a decline in dolutegravir‑based revenues late in the decade; long‑acting cabotegravir regimens must scale quickly just to hold the line.
Pricing and political risk: even if today’s Medicare cuts are manageable, the broader direction of policy is toward tougher U.S. pricing and more scrutiny of adult vaccines.
Execution complexity: rolling out 15+ “scale” launches, integrating alliances (Hengrui, LTZ and others) and managing a leadership transition all at once is not trivial.

This camp argues that a low‑teens P/E for a company facing patent cliffs, political risk and a still‑unproven long‑term pipeline may be closer to “fair” than “cheap.”

Bottom line: how GSK stock looks on December 3, 2025

As of today, GSK is no longer a recovery story priced for disaster.

The share price is near a 52‑week high, after a sharp 2025 rally powered by upgraded guidance, a revived oncology franchise and a chunky buyback. TS2 Tech+1
Earnings momentum is strong, with specialty medicines now clearly the profit engine.
Near‑term catalysts – December FDA decisions on depemokimab and gepotidacin – could further strengthen the 2026–2030 growth narrative if they go GSK’s way. ^[53]
Yet analyst targets cluster around or slightly below the current price, underscoring that the market has already priced in a good chunk of the good news. ^[54]

For investors and traders tracking GSK stock into 2026, the key questions now are:

Do depemokimab and gepotidacin win timely approvals and ramp as expected?
Can Blenrep, Jemperli and the oncology pipeline keep delivering data good enough to justify GSK’s big 2031 sales dream?
And will Luke Miels use the balance sheet for disciplined deals that enhance growth rather than dilute it?

Those answers will determine whether today’s near‑record share price marks a consolidation plateau – or simply another step higher in GSK’s long, slightly eccentric, march through the drug pipeline maze.