Updated 8 December 2025
GSK share price snapshot
GSK plc (LON: GSK; NYSE: GSK) heads into the second week of December trading near its 52‑week highs after a year of strong execution in specialty medicines and a powerful buyback programme.
- London-listed shares last closed at 1,805p on 5 December 2025, down 1.15% on the day. [1]
- US ADRs on the NYSE closed the same day at $48.41, a 0.33% daily decline. [2]
- Over the past 12 months, the ADR is up around 40%, and sits only a couple of percent below its 52‑week high of about $49.31. [3]
In simple terms: GSK stock has already re-rated sharply in 2025 and now trades as a large‑cap growth/value hybrid rather than the deeply discounted “problem child” it looked like a couple of years ago.
Latest corporate news: Q3 beat, guidance upgrade and accelerating buyback
Strong Q3 2025 performance
On 29 October 2025, GSK reported a better‑than‑expected third quarter and raised its full‑year guidance. [4] Key highlights:
- Q3 2025 sales: £8.5bn, up 7% at reported rates and 8% at constant exchange rates (CER).
- Specialty Medicines revenue rose 16%, driven by:
- Respiratory, Immunology & Inflammation: +15%
- Oncology: +39%
- HIV: +12%
- Vaccines sales reached £2.7bn, up 2%, with:
- Shingrix (shingles) up 13% to £0.8bn
- Meningitis vaccines up 5%
- Arexvy (RSV vaccine) up 36% to about £0.3bn [5]
- Core operating profit grew 11%, while core EPS increased 14% to 55.0p. [6]
A sharp drop in legal expenses (notably Zantac) helped more than double reported operating profit and total EPS versus the prior year. [7]
2025 guidance raised again
On the back of Q3, GSK upgraded its full‑year 2025 outlook: [8]
- Turnover growth now expected at 6–7% (up from “towards the top end” of 3–5%).
- Core operating profit growth raised to 9–11% (from 6–8%).
- Core EPS growth lifted to 10–12% (also from 6–8%).
After years of being criticised for a “thin” pipeline, GSK is now guiding to double‑digit earnings growth in 2025 while still stepping up R&D spend, especially in oncology and vaccines.
Dividends and share buyback
Capital returns remain central to the GSK equity story:
- A Q3 dividend of 16p per share was declared, with 64p expected for the full year 2025. [9]
- By Q3, GSK had already spent £1.1bn in 2025 on its £2bn share buyback programme announced with FY 2024 results. [10]
More recent filings show the buyback continuing at pace:
- Between late September and early December, GSK repurchased around 12 million shares, including 233,000 shares on 4 December at a volume‑weighted average price of 1,832p. [11]
- Treasury shares now total about 237.5 million, equal to 5.8% of voting rights, leaving ~4.08 billion ordinary shares in issue. [12]
Systematically shrinking the share count while growing earnings amplifies EPS and supports the dividend story—one of the reasons the stock has re‑rated this year.
Strategic developments: CEO transition and a busier pipeline
Walmsley out, Miels in from January 2026
In September, GSK announced that Emma Walmsley will step down as CEO at the end of 2025. Luke Miels, currently Chief Commercial Officer, will take over as CEO on 1 January 2026. [13]
Key points from the announcement and market reaction:
- The move comes after more than eight years of Walmsley’s tenure, during which she spun off consumer health group Haleon and refocused GSK on biopharma. [14]
- Analysts generally welcomed the change; several houses noted that Miels’ deep pharma background and focus on specialty medicines could support further pipeline execution. [15]
- Miels will inherit the company’s ambition to exceed £40bn in annual sales by 2031, supported by a growing oncology and infectious disease portfolio. [16]
The leadership transition is not a distress signal—GSK shares actually rose on the announcement—but it does add a layer of execution risk as investors evaluate whether Miels can maintain momentum while navigating tariffs, pricing pressure and patent expiries.
2025: Four new product approvals and more to come
GSK’s growth narrative is increasingly about new products and line extensions rather than legacy vaccines alone. In Q3 the company highlighted four major approvals in 2025: [17]
- Blenrep (belantamab) – for multiple myeloma (re‑launched after earlier safety concerns).
- Penmenvy – a next‑generation meningococcal MenABCWY vaccine intended to simplify adolescent schedules. [18]
- Blujepa (gepotidacin) – the first-in-class oral antibiotic for uncomplicated urinary tract infections (uUTIs) in women and girls ≥12, approved by the US FDA in March 2025. [19]
- Nucala (mepolizumab) – now approved as the first biologic for eosinophilic COPD, targeting more than one million patients with frequent exacerbations. [20]
Two near‑term catalysts are looming:
- A supplemental FDA filing for Blujepa to treat urogenital gonorrhoea has a PDUFA action date of 11 December 2025. [21]
- GSK expects a US FDA decision on depemokimab, a biologic for asthma with type‑2 inflammation, by December 2025 as well. [22]
If both events go well, they strengthen the case that GSK can offset coming HIV patent cliffs with fresh specialty products.
Arexvy and the RSV vaccine battle
GSK’s RSV vaccine Arexvy has had a bumpy commercial debut:
- A limited US recommendation from the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) in 2024 contributed to weak 2024 and early‑2025 sales. [23]
- In Q1 2025, Arexvy revenue dropped about 57% year‑on‑year to ~£78m, sharply below early “blockbuster” hopes. [24]
The story has since improved:
- ACIP gave Arexvy a positive recommendation for adults aged 50–59 at increased risk, broadening its US label beyond the original older‑adult population. [25]
- By Q3 2025, Arexvy sales had rebounded to around £0.3bn in the quarter, up 36% year‑on‑year. [26]
- In Europe, GSK has applied to expand Arexvy use to adults under 50 who are at risk, with an EU decision expected in the first half of 2026. [27]
Competition from Pfizer’s Abrysvo and Moderna’s mRESVIA remains intense, but GSK is working to turn Arexvy into a long‑duration global franchise rather than a one‑season wonder.
Regulatory and litigation backdrop
Hepatitis B policy shock hits Engerix‑B sentiment
The most controversial policy development of late 2025 has been in vaccines, not courts.
On 5 December 2025, a reconstituted US vaccine advisory panel voted to scrap the long‑standing recommendation that all newborns receive a hepatitis B vaccine at birth, advising instead that only babies of mothers who are infected or whose status is unknown should get the birth dose. [28]
Vaccine makers Merck, Sanofi and GSK—which sells Engerix‑B—publicly criticised the decision, warning it could reverse decades of progress that saw hepatitis B infections in US children and young adults fall by about 90–99% under universal vaccination. [29]
Short‑term implications:
- The decision is not yet fully implemented; the CDC’s acting director still needs to sign off, and major US medical bodies continue to endorse birth‑dose vaccination. [30]
- However, any sustained reduction in US infant hepatitis B vaccination could weigh on Engerix‑B volumes and would add to volatility in GSK’s vaccines segment.
This comes on top of the earlier ACIP controversies around Arexvy and Shingrix, underlining how US vaccine policy has become a material risk factor for GSK’s medium‑term revenue trajectory. [31]
Zantac litigation mostly contained
On the litigation front, the big overhang is largely addressed:
- GSK has agreed to pay up to $2.2–2.3bn to resolve roughly 80,000 US state‑court lawsuits related to Zantac (ranitidine), covering about 93% of its US state‑court exposure. [32]
The settlement is painful but finite and has already been reflected in prior‑year earnings. GSK still faces some residual cases and co‑defendants remain in the firing line, but the tail risk that once drove severe multiple compression has sharply diminished.
How analysts see GSK stock now
Consensus: broadly neutral, but with sharp disagreements
Analyst sentiment on GSK is mixed rather than euphoric, despite the strong share‑price performance.
On the London listing:
- MarketBeat’s survey of 5 analysts shows an average 12‑month target price of 1,762p, with estimates ranging from 1,450p to 2,100p—a modest 2–3% downside to the current 1,805p spot price. [33]
On the US ADR:
- For the NYSE ticker, MarketBeat records an average target of $44.13 from 7 analysts, with a range of $35.25–$53.00. That implies about 9% downside from roughly $48.4. [34]
MarketScreener aggregates a broader international coverage:
- Around 20 analysts are tracked, with the mean recommendation at “Hold” and an average target price close to £18.33 (1,833p), about 1.5% above the latest close. [35]
Fresh December 2025 calls: JPMorgan turns the screw
The most attention‑grabbing call this week came from JPMorgan’s Richard Vosser, who on 8 December reiterated a Sell rating on GSK:
- Vosser cut his target price from 1,700p to 1,500p, implying meaningful downside from current levels. [36]
Other houses are more sanguine:
- UBS kept a Neutral stance with a more middle‑of‑the‑road target on 4 December. [37]
- Berenberg recently raised its US target on the ADR from $41 to $43, while maintaining a Hold rating. [38]
- Some datasets (such as StockAnalysis) now show only a single covering analyst on the ADR, rating GSK a “Strong Buy”, highlighting how coverage on the US line can be thinner and more volatile than on the London stock. [39]
Overall, the sell‑side message is “good execution, but not obviously cheap after the rerating”, and views differ sharply on how much pipeline and buybacks justify a premium.
Valuation: is GSK expensive after the rally?
Despite a ~40% 12‑month run, GSK is not trading at nosebleed multiples when compared with global pharma peers.
From current data on the ADR: [40]
- Trailing P/E (price/earnings, TTM): about 13x
- Forward P/E (next‑year earnings): roughly 10x
- Price‑to‑sales: about 2.2x
- EV/EBITDA: around 9x
For the London line, one set of estimates pegs market capitalisation at ~£72–74bn, with a trailing P/E around 13.5x and annual revenue a little over £32bn. [41]
Set against:
- Upgraded 2025 core EPS growth of 10–12% [42]
- A £2bn buyback and a roughly 3–4% dividend yield (based on a 64p payout) [43]
…many investors will view this as “reasonable value” rather than a bargain. The case for further upside rests on sustained double‑digit earnings growth and successful commercialisation of the current late‑stage pipeline.
Key catalysts and risks heading into 2026
Potential upside drivers
- Near‑term regulatory decisions (Q4 2025):
- FDA decisions on depemokimab (asthma) and Blujepa’s gonorrhoea indication could reinforce GSK’s specialty medicines narrative if positive. [44]
- Arexvy and Penmenvy ramp‑up:
- A broader RSV label in Europe, plus continued ACIP support for meningococcal vaccine Penmenvy, could offset some of the pressure from hepatitis B policy changes. [45]
- Ongoing buybacks and dividend growth:
- With only £0.9bn left on the current buyback authorisation and leverage manageable, GSK has room to keep returning cash, supporting per‑share metrics. [46]
- CEO “new broom” effect:
- The market often gives a new CEO some benefit of the doubt. If Miels lays out a convincing 2026–2031 growth plan, sentiment could improve further. [47]
Main risk factors
- US vaccine policy uncertainty:
- The hepatitis B decision is a clear warning shot. Any further rollbacks to ACIP recommendations for RSV, shingles or meningitis could disrupt demand for key GSK vaccines. [48]
- Competition in HIV and oncology:
- Patent expiries for dolutegravir‑based HIV regimens in 2028 and fierce competition in cancer could squeeze prices and volumes, requiring flawless execution on new launches to meet the >£40bn 2031 sales ambition. [49]
- Residual litigation and pricing pressure:
- While Zantac risk is much reduced, some cases remain and US/UK payers are tightening drug‑pricing frameworks, which could cap margin expansion. [50]
- Macro and tariff exposure:
- GSK has flagged US trade tariffs and geopolitical issues as a headwind; new trade rules that hike input costs or restrict supply chains would weigh on margins. [51]
Bottom line
As of 8 December 2025, GSK stock sits in an interesting middle zone:
- Operationally, the company is executing well: specialty medicines and HIV/oncology are growing strongly, guidance is moving up, and legal overhangs are easing. [52]
- Financially, GSK offers mid‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit growth, a solid dividend, and a sizeable buyback, all at mid‑teens earnings multiples—not obviously expensive, but no longer a deep value play. [53]
- Strategically, the upcoming CEO transition, vaccine‑policy battles and HIV patent cliffs ensure that the investment case remains highly execution‑dependent.
For investors, the question is less “Is GSK broken?”—the market has largely priced that fear out—and more “Can GSK consistently deliver double‑digit EPS growth in a tougher policy environment?” The answer will depend on how the next wave of launches, regulatory decisions and Miels’ early moves as CEO play out through 2026.
References
1. finance.yahoo.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. www.macrotrends.net, 4. www.gsk.com, 5. www.gsk.com, 6. www.gsk.com, 7. www.gsk.com, 8. www.gsk.com, 9. www.gsk.com, 10. www.gsk.com, 11. www.stocktitan.net, 12. www.stocktitan.net, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.gsk.com, 18. www.gsk.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.stocktitan.net, 21. us.gsk.com, 22. www.gsk.com, 23. www.gsk.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.gsk.com, 26. www.gsk.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.gsk.com, 32. www.gsk.com, 33. www.marketbeat.com, 34. www.marketbeat.com, 35. www.marketscreener.com, 36. www.marketscreener.com, 37. www.marketscreener.com, 38. www.marketscreener.com, 39. stockanalysis.com, 40. stockanalysis.com, 41. stockanalysis.com, 42. www.gsk.com, 43. www.gsk.com, 44. www.gsk.com, 45. www.reuters.com, 46. www.gsk.com, 47. www.reuters.com, 48. www.reuters.com, 49. www.reuters.com, 50. www.gsk.com, 51. www.reuters.com, 52. www.gsk.com, 53. www.gsk.com
