Gujarat State Petronet Share Price Jumps 8% on December 2, 2025: How the GSPL–Gujarat Gas Merger Is Shaping the Stock’s Outlook

Gujarat State Petronet Limited (GSPL), the state-backed gas transmission company, woke up sharply on 2 December 2025, with the share price surging around 8% intraday and decisively outperforming both its sector and the broader market. ^[1]

The move comes against a backdrop of soft earnings, a complex merger–demerger with Gujarat Gas, and cautious broker commentary – exactly the kind of cocktail that can make a mid-cap utility stock much more interesting than it sounds on paper.

Gujarat State Petronet share price today (2 December 2025)

Across major data providers, the picture on 2 December 2025 (late morning IST) looks broadly consistent:

Price zone:
- Around ₹313.95 on BSE at 11:42 AM, up 7.94% from the previous close of ₹290.85. ^[2]
- ₹314.50 on NSE and ₹314.75–315.40 on broker terminals a few minutes later, implying an intraday gain of about 8–8.5%. ^[3]
Intraday range:
- Day low: roughly ₹291
- Day high: about ₹316–317 ^[4]
Volumes and traded value:
- On BSE alone, volume is under 0.9 million shares. ^[5]
- On a BSE+NSE basis, some analytics platforms report ~11.9 million shares traded and traded value well above ₹350 crore, making GSPL one of the most actively traded gas names today. ^[6]
Market cap & valuations:
- Market capitalisation: roughly ₹17,700–17,800 crore. ^[7]
- Trailing P/E: around 10.5–11x on some consolidated EPS measures; P/B around 1.3–1.5x and dividend yield ~1.7%. ^[8]
Return profile versus indices (BSE data):
- 1 week: about +6.8%, handily beating the Sensex. ^[9]
- 1 month: roughly +1.5%, roughly in line with the benchmarks. ^[10]
- 1 year: around –10 to –11%, versus +6–7% for the Sensex/Nifty – clear underperformance over the last year. ^[11]

In other words: today is a big up-day, but it’s happening after a year in which GSPL has lagged the market.

Why is GSPL rallying today?

Short version: momentum + merger narrative + solid technicals, rather than a brand‑new fundamental surprise.

Specialist analytics platforms highlight a few big intraday points for 2 December 2025: ^[12]

Strong one-day move:
Single‑day gains are quoted in the 7.5–8.5% range, with GSPL beating the broader gas sector by roughly 6–7 percentage points and outperforming the Sensex, which is slightly negative on the day.
Heavy trading:
Estimated combined volume over 11 million shares and high turnover in rupee terms put GSPL among the top value-traded stocks in the gas space today.
Above all key moving averages:
The stock is trading above its 5‑, 20‑, 50‑, 100‑ and 200‑day moving averages, a classic “all-green” technical setup that tends to attract momentum traders and quant screens.
Short-term momentum vs long-term underperformance:
- Last week: returns above 6%.
- Last 3 months: mid‑single-digit gains, slightly behind the Sensex.
- Last 12 months:double‑digit negative returns, while the index is solidly positive. ^[13]

That combination – cheapish valuations, one big structural story (the merger), and a chart that just turned decisively bullish – is exactly the sort of thing that can light a fire under an otherwise dull-looking utility stock.

The core business: regulated gas transmission with steady but unspectacular growth

GSPL is essentially Gujarat’s gas highway operator:

It runs a network of open‑access natural gas pipelines moving gas from supply hubs to industrial, power, city‑gas and fertilizer consumers. ^[14]
The company also:
- Owns 52.5 MW of wind power capacity selling to the state utility under PPAs. ^[15]
- Holds stakes in two joint ventures:
  - GSPL India Gasnet Ltd (GIGL) – building ~1,700 km of pipelines across Gujarat, Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana (about 1,300 km already operational). ^[16]
  - GSPL India Transco Ltd (GITL) – operating pipelines in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. ^[17]

Promoters (the Gujarat government group) hold around 37.6% of the equity; the rest is split across mutual funds, foreign investors and public shareholders. ^[18]

Q2 FY26 results: revenue up slightly, profit down, volumes soft

The latest detailed numbers investors are trading on are Q2 FY26 results for the quarter ended 30 September 2025, with the board meeting and disclosures around 11 November 2025. ^[19]

Different data providers quote slightly different rounded figures, but the broad picture is consistent:

Consolidated performance (Q2 FY26)

Revenue from operations:
Roughly ₹4,200 crore, marginally up about 1–1.5% year-on-year. ^[20]
Profit before tax:
About ₹735 crore, slightly lower than the same quarter last year. ^[21]
Profit after tax (PAT):
Around ₹261 crore, down roughly 7% YoY and down mid‑teens QoQ, as margins compressed. ^[22]
EPS (latest quarter, adjusted): about ₹4.6 per share. ^[23]

Standalone transmission business (Q2 FY26)

On a standalone basis – which more closely reflects the regulated pipeline operations:

Revenue from operations: about ₹274 crore, up ~6% YoY.
PAT: roughly ₹382 crore vs ₹389 crore a year earlier, a small drop of ~2% YoY. ^[24]

So, revenue is inching up, but earnings are slightly slipping, mostly because operating costs and lower implied tariffs are squeezing margins.

A detailed broker note from Prabhudas Lilladher breaks this down further: ^[25]

Average transmission volumes fell from about 29.7 mmscmd to 28.5 mmscmd quarter‑on‑quarter.
Implied tariff per unit of gas transmitted softened, while opex per unit rose, dragging EBITDA lower than both the previous quarter and the street’s estimates.
PAT actually jumped QoQ due to a spike in other income, but year‑on‑year profit was slightly down, reflecting the underlying pressure.

That combination – flat to slightly lower earnings despite stable volumes – is a big part of why GSPL has underperformed over the last year even before the merger noise kicks in.

The big story: merger with Gujarat Gas and spin‑off of GSPL Transmission

If you own or track GSPL, you’re not just buying a pipeline stock anymore; you’re essentially buying into a large, state‑engineered restructuring of the entire GSPC–Gujarat Gas–GSPL group.

What is the scheme?

A composite scheme of amalgamation and arrangement – approved at various levels by the Gujarat government and progressing through regulatory channels – proposes to: ^[26]

Merge three companies into Gujarat Gas Limited (GGL):
- Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation (GSPC)
- Gujarat State Petronet Limited (GSPL)
- GSPC Energy Limited (GEL)
Then demerge the gas transmission business of the combined entity into a new, listed company called GSPL Transmission Limited (often abbreviated GTL).

Investor presentations and fairness‑opinion documents describe appointed dates of 1 April 2024 for the merger and 1 April 2025 for the demerger, subject to the scheme becoming effective. ^[27]

By mid‑2024, the Gujarat Gas board had approved the framework, and subsequent updates from rating agencies, media and the state government have signalled that regulatory approvals are essentially in place, with full compliance initially expected in 2025. ^[28]

What does a GSPL shareholder get?

Investor‑oriented breakdowns of the scheme spell out the economics for GSPL investors: ^[29]

Step 1 – Merger into Gujarat Gas:
For roughly every 13 shares of GSPL (face value ₹10) you hold, you are expected to receive 10 shares of Gujarat Gas (face value ₹2) in the merged entity.
Step 2 – Spin‑off of GSPL Transmission:
After the merger, when the gas transmission business is carved out, you are expected to get 1 share of GSPL Transmission for every 3 shares of Gujarat Gas you hold.

Media coverage from outlets like NDTV Profit, Reuters and the Times of India emphasises three key points about this structure: ^[30]

The merged Gujarat Gas becomes a city‑gas + trading + upstream + renewables platform.
GSPL Transmission becomes a pure‑play gas transmission utility, inheriting the current GSPL pipeline assets and associated JVs.
The design is explicitly aimed at removing the “holding company discount” on GSPL and aligning valuations more closely with underlying businesses – but the complexity can increase price volatility around implementation.

A detailed independent analysis from MarketSetup even frames it as “from one to two”: today’s GSPL, which is part operating utility and part holding company (via its stake in Gujarat Gas), is being broken into a more straightforward transmission vehicle plus exposure to Gujarat Gas through the swap ratios. ^[31]

How are brokers and analysts reading GSPL after Q2 and the merger news?

1. Prabhudas Lilladher: downgrade to Hold, target ₹311

A November 2025 broker report from Prabhudas Lilladher does three important things: ^[32]

Acknowledges structural value in GSPL’s stake in Gujarat Gas and Sabarmati Gas.
Notes that transmission volumes are disappointing, and margins are under pressure due to higher costs and softer tariffs.
Cuts the rating to “Hold” (from a more positive stance earlier) with a target price of ₹311.

They explicitly highlight that:

The core transmission business is being valued at about 10x forward (FY27/FY28) adjusted EPS.
The investments in Gujarat Gas and Sabarmati Gas are valued with a 25% holding company discount, together contributing roughly ₹200 per share to fair value.

With GSPL now trading around ₹314–315, PL’s target is effectively right around the market price, implying limited upside in the near term on their numbers.

2. Motilal Oswal: “Merger on the horizon”, Neutral rating, fair value in the low–mid ₹300s

Motilal Oswal’s November 11 report – widely circulated under the title “Merger on the horizon” – takes a merger‑centric view: ^[33]

They flag Q2 FY26 revenue and EBITDA as 9% and 13% below their estimates due to lower‑than‑expected volumes (28.5 mmscmd, about 8% below their forecast).
They emphasise the composite scheme’s progress, noting that petitions are with the Ministry of Corporate Affairs and expressing expectations of completion around late 2025, subject to approvals.
Using the merger and demerger share‑swap mechanics, they arrive at a sum‑of‑the‑parts fair value for GSPL in the ~₹311–355 per share band, while maintaining a “Neutral” stance.

The key takeaway from both PL and Motilal Oswal:

The stock is not screamingly cheap or wildly expensive on their base‑case assumptions; most of the upside depends on (a) how the merger plays out and (b) whether volumes recover.

3. Other target prices and modelled forecasts

Different platforms and models add their own flavour:

Trendlyne consensus:
Aggregated broker data shows an average target price around ₹324, only about 3% above the latest traded price near ₹315, reflecting muted near‑term upside in the sell‑side consensus. ^[34]
Univest analyst aggregation:
A post‑results note summarising Q2 FY26 suggests “analysts expect GSPL’s share price to reach about ₹385 in the coming year”, but also flags a downside scenario around ₹286 – essentially a wide band of outcomes anchored on the success of the restructuring and gas‑demand trends. ^[35]
Algorithmic/technical forecast sites:
- WalletInvestor’s purely technical model labels GSPL an “acceptable long‑term investment”, with a one‑year projection near ₹313 (basically flat versus today) and longer‑term numbers in the high ₹300s. ^[36]
- Some data services (like TradingView’s aggregated EPS expectations) indicate next‑quarter EPS estimates in the low‑single‑digit rupee range per share, consistent with earnings remaining steady rather than explosive. ^[37]

None of these should be treated as gospel, but the pattern is clear:

Most forecasts cluster GSPL somewhere in the low‑ to mid‑₹300s, with upside or downside driven mainly by the merger mechanics and gas‑volume trends rather than a radical re‑rating of the existing business.

Valuation snapshot: cheap utility or value trap?

Putting the moving parts together:

Price today: around ₹314–315. ^[38]
Market cap: roughly ₹17.7k crore. ^[39]
Multiples (ICICI Direct / Business Standard data): ^[40]
- P/E (trailing): about 10.5–11x
- P/B: around 1.35–1.5x
- Dividend yield: about 1.7%

Versus many Indian utilities and gas‑related names that trade in the high‑teens to mid‑20s P/E range, GSPL looks modestly valued. ^[41]

But the market is also staring at:

Volume headwinds in the near term. ^[42]
Earnings that are drifting down slightly, not up. ^[43]
A complicated swap‑ratio puzzle that will determine what current GSPL shareholders actually own in Gujarat Gas + GSPL Transmission a year or two down the line. ^[44]

So you can think of GSPL at current levels as:

A mid‑cap infrastructure stock priced at a modest multiple, with a “sum-of-the-parts unlock” story – but also with genuine execution risk around the merger and tariff/volume trends.

Key risks and variables to watch

If you’re tracking the stock beyond today’s spike, the levers that matter most are:

Regulatory and tariff risk
GSPL’s core business is a regulated pipeline utility under the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB). Changes in allowed tariffs, volume assumptions or regulatory methodology can materially affect earnings, especially when volumes are already soft. ^[45]
Gas demand & pricing
Volumes depend on industrial demand, power offtake, fertilizer usage and city‑gas growth, all of which respond to global LNG prices, domestic gas availability and policy. India’s policy goal of raising gas’s share in the energy mix from 6% to 15% is supportive, but the path is not smooth. ^[46]
Merger execution and timelines
- Court and regulator approvals for the composite scheme. ^[47]
- Implementation timing (various sources talk about completion around late 2025, but large schemes often slip). ^[48]
- Listing details, pricing and liquidity for GSPL Transmission Ltd, which will ultimately determine how much of the “pipeline value” is crystallised for current shareholders. ^[49]
Corporate governance and management churn
2025 has already seen multiple board and management changes, as reflected in exchange filings summarised by StockInsights and Trendlyne. ^[50]
This is natural in a restructuring, but investors will still watch continuity of leadership and clarity of communication.
Market psychology around “event” trades
GSPL is now firmly in the bucket of “event‑driven” stocks – where price moves can be driven as much by expectations around the scheme, index inclusion/exclusion and arbitrage flows as by day‑to‑day fundamentals. ^[51]

Should investors chase GSPL after today’s 8% move?

This is not investment advice – just a way to organise the puzzle pieces.

What we can say, based on the data above:

Today’s rally puts the stock close to or slightly above several broker target prices in the low ₹300s. ^[52]
Valuations are reasonable, not stretched, but earnings momentum is flat to mildly negative. ^[53]
The real action is in the restructuring: if the Gujarat Gas + GSPL Transmission architecture works as intended, GSPL’s holding‑company discount could finally fade, but execution risk and timeline slippage are real. ^[54]

For anyone analysing the stock, the disciplined checklist looks something like:

Model the post‑merger share entitlements for your own GSPL holding.
Stress‑test volumes and tariffs rather than assuming a straight line up.
Treat broker targets and algorithmic forecasts as scenarios, not promises.
Decide whether you want to own the event risk (short‑term volatility) or the post‑event utility (GSPL Transmission + Gujarat Gas exposure).

References