HDFC Bank Share Price Today, 10 Dec 2025: RBI Rate Cut, Home-Loan Relief and Double‑Digit Upside in Broker Forecasts

HDFC Bank Limited’s share price traded around ₹989 on the NSE in early afternoon trade on 10 December 2025, down roughly 0.8% from the previous close near ₹997, even as the stock remains only about 3% below its 52‑week high of ~₹1,020. At this level, the bank’s market capitalisation is around ₹15.1–15.3 lakh crore, making it India’s most valuable private-sector lender, and one of the world’s top 100 companies by market cap. ^[1]

On valuation, HDFC Bank is trading at roughly 21x trailing earnings and about 2.8–2.9x book value, with a dividend yield of a little over 2%, placing it squarely in “quality blue-chip” territory rather than deep value. ^[2]

Its New York–listed American Depositary Receipts (ticker HDB) were recently quoted near $35–36, implying a similar valuation and reflecting the same cautious-but-positive global sentiment on Indian financials. ^[3]

HDFC Bank share price today: key levels, returns and context

As of around 1:30 pm IST on 10 December 2025:

NSE price: ~₹989 per share, down about 0.8% day-on-day
Day’s range: roughly ₹985–998
52‑week range: about ₹812 (low) to ₹1,020 (high)
Market cap: ≈ ₹15.15 lakh crore (≈ $180 billion)
Valuations: P/E ~21x, P/B ~2.9x, dividend yield ~2.2% ^[4]

One‑year share-price returns are about 6%, modestly ahead of inflation but behind some high-flying peers and the best-performing non-bank large caps. Over five years, the stock has delivered around 43% absolute returns, illustrating steady compounding rather than explosive growth. ^[5]

On 9 December 2025, the stock closed near ₹996.85, underperforming the broader market’s decline; that mild underperformance has continued into today’s trade. ^[6]

Why HDFC Bank stock is under pressure today

1. Weak banking sentiment in a choppy market

Indian equities are trading mixed on 10 December, with Sensex and Nifty both slightly in the red, weighed down in part by banking stocks, including HDFC Bank. Live market blogs from domestic business media flag banks and IT as the main laggards, with HDFC Bank listed among the drags on the indices. ^[7]

Short-term technical indicators also show some caution: Economic Times’ screeners highlight recent 14‑day and 20‑day moving-average “sell” crossovers in HDFC Bank, a pattern that historically has been associated with small negative returns over the next week. ^[8]

2. RBI rate cut and lower home-loan EMIs

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.25% on 5 December 2025, taking the total reduction in 2025 to 125 bps as it leans toward supporting growth while inflation moderates. ^[9]

In response, several banks — including HDFC Bank, Bank of Baroda, Punjab National Bank and others — have reduced lending benchmarks:

HDFC Bank has cut its Marginal Cost of Funds-based Lending Rate (MCLR) by 5 bps across tenors.
Its MCLR range now stands at 8.30–8.55%, down from 8.35–8.60%. ^[10]

This means home-loan EMIs are set to edge lower for borrowers whose loans are linked to the repo rate or MCLR, a fact widely reported by mainstream business media. ^[11]

For HDFC Bank, the move is a double-edged sword:

It supports retail loan growth and improves sentiment among home-loan customers.
It also adds near-term pressure to net interest margins (NIMs), which were already under strain post the 2023 merger with HDFC Ltd and rising competition for deposits.

3. Recent RBI penalty and compliance overhang

Late in November, the RBI imposed a ₹91 lakh (₹0.91 crore) monetary penalty on HDFC Bank for violations related to:

Interest rate rules on advances
Outsourcing of financial services
Know Your Customer (KYC) norms

The penalty followed a regulatory inspection based on the bank’s financial position as of 31 March 2024, and was disclosed via stock-exchange filings on 28 November 2025. ^[12]

The fine is immaterial financially relative to HDFC Bank’s annual profit (over ₹70,000 crore in FY25), but it does underscore heightened regulatory scrutiny, especially after earlier episodes involving technology outages and data security at group entities. ^[13]

The bank has said in its filing that it has undertaken corrective actions, including at subsidiary HDB Financial Services, and is now compliant with the cited directions. ^[14]

Latest fundamentals: Q2 FY26 results show robust profit, softer margins

The most recent quarterly numbers — Q2 FY26 (quarter ended 30 September 2025) — are central to how analysts are looking at HDFC Bank today.

Key highlights from multiple result summaries and the bank’s own presentation: ^[15]

Standalone net profit: about ₹18,640 crore, up 10.8% year-on-year
Consolidated PAT: nearly ₹19,600 crore, up over 20% YoY
Net interest income (NII): ~₹31,550 crore, up 4.8% YoY
Net interest margin (NIM): compressed to ~3.27–3.3%, versus around 3.5% a year earlier
Pre-provision operating profit (PPOP): grew around 18–19% YoY, driven by strong non-interest income and trading gains
Loan growth: roughly 10% YoY on a large base
Deposit growth: around 12–14% YoY, with deposits continuing to outpace advances on a full-year basis
Asset quality:
- Gross NPA ratio at ~1.24%
- Net NPA ratio around 0.42%
  Both improved versus a year ago.
Provisions: up ~30% YoY as the bank remains conservative in retail and unsecured lending.

Put simply: profits are growing solidly in double digits, asset quality remains among the best in the Indian banking system, but margins are still in recovery mode after the merger and amid intense competition for deposits.

Broker research and Reuters coverage note that margin pressure came partly from slower repricing of deposits versus loans, and that a large part of the merger-related drag may now be behind the bank. ^[16]

ESG and governance: a mixed but improving picture

Two recent developments stand out on the non-financial side:

ESG rating: NSE’s sustainability framework has assigned HDFC Bank an ESG score of 73 for FY2025, placing it among better-rated Indian corporates on environmental, social and governance metrics. ^[17]
Regulatory & reputational risk:
- The RBI penalty discussed earlier highlights process lapses in interest-rate benchmarking, outsourcing and KYC. ^[18]
- Separately, in June 2025, a Mumbai hospital trust filed a police complaint involving CEO Sashidhar Jagdishan in a long-running loan dispute; the bank has called the allegations “malicious and baseless” in public statements. ^[19]

For investors, the broad takeaway is that HDFC Bank remains an ESG leader among Indian banks, but regulatory and legal noise has not disappeared, and must be monitored alongside financial metrics.

How are analysts valuing HDFC Bank on 10 December 2025?

Consensus: strong buy, solid upside

Across domestic and global brokerages, HDFC Bank remains one of the most widely covered stocks in India.

Key points from consensus data collated by Trendlyne, Investing.com, IndMoney, LiveMint and ET: ^[20]

Around 38–39 analysts actively cover the stock.
Rating mix:
- Strong Buy: ~17
- Buy: ~18
- Hold: ~3
- Sell / Strong Sell: 0
Average 12‑month target price: about ₹1,160–1,170 per share, implying ~13–17% upside from current levels.
Target range:
- High: ~₹1,400
- Low: ~₹1,040–1,050

LiveMint’s stock page and similar aggregators classify HDFC Bank as a “Strong Buy” based on this distribution. ^[21]

Notable brokerage calls and stock picks

A few high-profile views around the current period:

Jefferies: Maintains “Buy” with a ₹1,240 target, flagging HDFC Bank’s strong deposit franchise, stabilising margins and attractive valuation at about 2.1x FY26 book; the brokerage sees roughly 20–25% upside from recent levels. ^[22]
Morgan Stanley: Overweight rating with a target near ₹1,225, expecting loan growth broadly in line with the system and NIMs to stabilise and improve in the current half. ^[23]
Elara Capital: Fresh recommendation (8 December) with a target of ₹1,147, implying ~14% upside from around ₹1,003 at the time of the call. ^[24]
Motilal Oswal, Prabhudas Lilladher, Deven Choksey & others: Recent domestic reports cluster in the ₹1,145–1,175 target band for near-term (12‑month) horizons. ^[25]
JM Financial & ICICI Securities: Longer-term, more aggressive calls with targets above ₹2,100–2,200, embedding an assumption of sustained RoE improvement once merger synergies and margin normalisation play out. ^[26]
Axis Securities: Lists HDFC Bank among its top large-cap stock picks for December 2025, in a strategy that is overweight BFSI, telecom and domestic cyclicals, and envisions the Nifty 50 reaching 28,100–29,500 by December 2026 in favourable scenarios. ^[27]

On the U.S. ADR (HDB), MarketBeat and other aggregators describe the consensus as “Moderate Buy”, noting a P/E around 21x, a 52‑week range of roughly $29–40, and a cluster of targets in the low‑to‑mid $40s. ^[28]

What are quant models and retail forecast sites saying?

Beyond traditional broker research, a swarm of algorithmic and retail-focused forecast sites publish numerical price targets for HDFC Bank. These are not investment advice, but they influence retail sentiment and search trends, so they matter for Google Discover–type visibility.

Examples as of early December 2025:

Short-term quant models (e.g., WalletInvestor) project HDFC Bank drifting around ₹1,000 over the next couple of weeks, with daily targets typically in the ₹993–1,005 band, implying low single‑digit upside from today’s price. ^[29]
Longer-term statistical projections from some sites show wildly divergent outcomes — from implausibly low end‑2025 levels (artefacts of model quirks) to multi‑year bullish paths crossing ₹1,400–1,900 by 2028. ^[30]

These tools typically treat the stock price as a time series, ignoring detailed fundamentals, management quality or macro conditions. They are best viewed as scenario generators, not as substitutes for proper analysis.

Ownership trends and institutional view

HDFC Bank remains heavily owned by large institutions:

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs): roughly 48–49% stake
Domestic institutional investors (DIIs, including mutual funds and insurers): about 36%
Public & others: ~15% ^[31]

In the U.S., hedge fund Marshall Wace LLP recently disclosed that it had reduced its HDB stake by nearly 60% during Q2, although the aggregate institutional ownership in the ADR remains substantial. MarketBeat still summarises the overall analyst view on the ADR as “Moderate Buy,” with HDFC Bank beating earnings estimates in the latest quarter. ^[32]

That kind of churn hints that some global funds are rotating positions, but it does not, by itself, overturn the broadly positive institutional stance on the bank.

Key structural strengths in the HDFC Bank investment case

From a medium- to long‑term perspective, several features continue to underpin the bullish analyst consensus:

Scale and franchise quality
HDFC Bank is India’s largest private-sector bank by assets and market cap, now also among the top 10 banks globally by market value after absorbing HDFC Ltd. It operates over 9,000 branches and more than 20,000 ATMs, with a deep presence in both urban and semi‑urban markets. ^[33]
Deposit franchise and low-cost funding
Full‑year FY25 data show deposit growth above 14%, with a healthy mix of retail and CASA (current and savings account) deposits, giving the bank one of the cheapest funding bases among large Indian lenders. Advances grew a little over 6–10% depending on metric and basis, meaning HDFC Bank is rebuilding its loan book without overstretching funding. ^[34]
Consistent profitability and RoE
Over the past decade, the bank has delivered profit growth around 20–21% CAGR and return on equity in the mid‑teens, even with short-term dips linked to the merger. FY25 standalone PAT crossed ₹67,000 crore, while consolidated PAT was around ₹70,800 crore. ^[35]
Digital and payments leadership
HDFC Bank remains a major player in UPI, cards and digital payments, and has been active in pilots around the digital rupee (CBDC), including programmable CBDC features announced in 2024. That ecosystem is strategically important for fee income and customer stickiness over time. ^[36]
ESG and credit ratings
The bank carries strong credit ratings and a relatively high ESG score, which helps attract long‑term institutional capital, especially as more global funds adopt sustainability filters. ^[37]

Risks and overhangs investors are watching

Even with a broadly positive story, several risk factors are front and centre in current research:

Margin compression and deposit competition
NIMs have eased to the low‑3% range, and FY25/FY26 data show rising cost of funds as competition for deposits heats up. If the RBI continues to cut rates, asset yields may reset faster than deposit costs, squeezing margins further unless the bank can re‑tilt its loan mix and improve operating efficiency. ^[38]
Regulatory and compliance risk
The ₹91 lakh RBI penalty is small, but it follows other episodes of regulatory scrutiny in recent years. The order specifically called out interest-rate benchmarking, outsourcing practices and KYC processes, and noted that a wholly owned subsidiary had engaged in activities not permitted for a bank under the Banking Regulation Act. ^[39]
Macro and currency risk
HDFC Bank’s own treasury team has warned that the Indian rupee could trade in the 90–92 per USD band in the absence of a quick trade deal with the U.S., after the rupee recently hit an all-time low around 90.4 per dollar. A weaker rupee raises imported inflation risks and can impact foreign investor flows into Indian financials. ^[40]
Leadership & legal noise
The June 2025 FIR naming the CEO adds an element of headline risk, even if the bank considers the allegations baseless. Regulators and large institutions will watch how the matter progresses and whether it leads to any governance or board-level changes over time. ^[41]
Execution post-merger
Integrating HDFC Ltd’s large home-loan book, systems and people is a multi‑year process. FY25 numbers already showed higher provisions and NIM volatility linked to this process; analysts expect further normalisation, but any fresh asset-quality surprises or integration costs could pressure valuations.

Upcoming catalysts for HDFC Bank stock

Several near‑term events and trends could move the stock from here:

Citi’s 2025 India Financials Tour (15 December 2025):
HDFC Bank is scheduled to meet institutional investors at this event in Mumbai, as disclosed to the stock exchanges. Management commentary on margins, deposit growth and retail-credit strategy will be closely parsed. ^[42]
Next RBI policy meetings and rate trajectory:
Markets are now pricing in the possibility of further rate cuts in 2026. For HDFC Bank, the balance between credit growth tailwinds and NIM headwinds will be crucial.
Q3 FY26 results (January 2026):
Several broker notes — including Jefferies and Morgan Stanley — expect NIMs to bottom out and start improving from the December quarter, helped by deposit repricing and better asset mix. If numbers confirm that thesis, it would strengthen the bull case. ^[43]
Rupee trajectory and foreign flows:
Currency stabilisation, or a reversal of 2025’s foreign equity outflows, would generally favour large banks such as HDFC Bank, which are key vehicles for global investors in India. ^[44]

Bottom line: how today’s news fits into the bigger HDFC Bank story

As of 10 December 2025, the market narrative around HDFC Bank looks something like this:

Price action: a high‑quality bank stock trading just below its 52‑week high, digesting a year of solid earnings but modest share-price returns.
Fundamentals: profits growing in double digits, asset quality strong, but margins not yet back to pre‑merger comfort levels.
Newsflow: RBI rate cuts and lower home-loan rates support the medium-term growth story, while the RBI penalty and ongoing legal noise remind investors that scale comes with scrutiny.
Valuation & forecasts: consensus from nearly 40 analysts points to double-digit upside, with very few bearish voices, and multiple brokerages placing HDFC Bank among their top picks in financials.

For investors and readers scanning Google News or Discover, the key is to see today’s slightly weak price action not in isolation, but in the context of a bank that is:

Still digesting a historic merger,
Operating in a shifting interest-rate and currency environment, and
Viewed by most institutional players as a core long-term holding in India’s financial sector — albeit one where margins, regulation and governance will remain closely watched.

References