HDFC Bank Limited’s stock spent 11 December 2025 trading comfortably around the ₹1,000 mark, supported by strong volumes, heavy institutional participation and a fresh bullish note from Emkay Global that argues the bank is poised for a valuation “re-rating” over the next few years. [1]
At the same time, technical analysts now characterise the trend as “mildly bullish” rather than outright strong, suggesting the rally may be entering a more measured phase even as longer‑term fundamentals remain robust. [2]
HDFC Bank share price on 11 December 2025
On 11 December 2025, HDFC Bank (NSE: HDFCBANK, BSE: 500180) traded in a relatively tight range just above its psychological ₹1,000 level:
- Economic Times’ live blog showed intraday prices moving from around ₹990 in early trade to roughly ₹1,000.8 by mid‑afternoon, with the last traded price reported at ₹1,000.7 and a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of about 21.25 based on earnings per share of ₹47.1. [3]
- On the stock’s summary page, ET’s 3:00 p.m. IST snapshot put the price at ₹1,001.10, up 1.15% versus the previous close of ₹997.10. One‑week returns stood at about 0.39%, and six‑month returns at roughly 2.66%. [4]
- Angel One’s live blog around 2:30 p.m. recorded the stock at ₹1,002 with a P/E of 20.55 versus an industry P/E of 14.36, underscoring that HDFC Bank still trades at a premium to the broader banking sector. [5]
Moneycontrol data for the BSE listing showed a day range near ₹988.55–₹1,002.70 and a 52‑week range of roughly ₹812–₹1,020, keeping the stock within a few percent of its annual high. [6]
Across sources, the message is consistent: on 11 December 2025 HDFC Bank was:
- Up roughly 1% on the day
- Trading just below its 52‑week high
- Commanding a market capitalisation in the ₹15.2–₹15.4 trillion range, cementing its position among India’s most valuable financial institutions. [7]
The US‑listed ADR (NYSE: HDB) also participated. MarketBeat reported HDB opening around $35.46, with a 1‑year range of $28.89–$39.81, a market cap of about $181 billion, and a trailing P/E near 21.6 and beta of 0.58. [8]
Technical picture: from bullish to ‘mildly bullish’
A detailed technical note from MarketsMojo on 11 December describes a market that is still leaning positive but less exuberant than a few months ago: [9]
- Trend rating – Their overall technical trend has been revised from “bullish” to “mildly bullish”, signalling cautious optimism rather than a runaway uptrend.
- Momentum indicators –
- Weekly MACD (a trend‑following indicator) shows mildly bearish momentum, hinting at consolidation or short‑term selling pressure.
- Monthly MACD remains bullish, suggesting the longer‑term uptrend is intact.
- RSI (Relative Strength Index) – Neither overbought nor oversold on weekly or monthly time frames, implying the stock isn’t at extreme levels.
- Bollinger Bands and moving averages – Bands and key moving averages lean mildly bullish, consistent with a slow grind higher rather than a vertical rally.
- Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator – Bullish on both weekly and monthly charts, reinforcing the idea that underlying momentum is still supportive.
- On‑Balance Volume (OBV) – Weekly OBV shows mildly bearish volume trends, indicating that short‑term rallies are not aggressively backed by fresh volume.
Performance metrics in the same report show:
- 1‑week return: about −1.0%, slightly worse than the Sensex’s roughly −0.8%
- Year‑to‑date return: ~11.8% vs ~8.0% for the Sensex
- 1‑year return: ~6.0% vs ~3.5% for the Sensex
So HDFC Bank has outperformed the benchmark over the past year but has lagged over longer 3‑ and 5‑year horizons, where the index’s returns are higher. [10]
Taken together, the technicals suggest a strong franchise in a consolidation zone: not overbought enough to scream “bubble,” but not cheap enough to be an obvious deep‑value trade either.
Trading action: high value turnover and deep liquidity
A separate MarketsMojo piece on 11 December highlights HDFC Bank as one of the most actively traded stocks by value on the day: [11]
- Around 2.0 million shares traded, representing a traded value of roughly ₹198 crore early in the session.
- The stock opened near ₹990, touched an intraday high around ₹994 and a low just below ₹989 in the early tick data cited, before stabilising.
- The share price sat roughly 2.8% below its 52‑week high of about ₹1,020, and was trading above its 50‑, 100‑ and 200‑day moving averages, signalling strong medium‑term support.
MarketsMojo also points out that:
- Delivery volumes on 10 December were more than 12% above the five‑day average, suggesting institutional or long‑term buyers were accumulating shares rather than just intraday trading.
- Based on its liquidity profile, the stock can absorb trade sizes of around ₹29–30 crore (about 2% of five‑day average traded value) without major price disruption—making it highly suitable for large institutional orders. [12]
In the broader market, a PTI report carried by The Week notes that buying in banking stocks such as HDFC Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank helped the Sensex and Nifty rebound from early losses, even as global markets digested a fresh 25 bps rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. [13]
On the foreign‑investor side, MarketBeat reported on 11 December that Altrinsic Global Advisors LLC has increased its position in HDFC Bank’s ADR, pointing to continued institutional interest from overseas. [14]
Fresh Emkay Global call: case for a valuation re‑rating
The standout fundamental development on 11 December is Emkay Global’s detailed note, summarised in Business Standard, arguing that HDFC Bank is poised for a re‑rating and could outperform ICICI Bank by FY28. [15]
Key points from Emkay’s thesis:
1. Credit growth is rebounding
- HDFC Bank’s credit growth has recovered from just 3% year‑on‑year in Q3 FY25 to ~10% in Q2 FY26, driven by corporate and SME lending. [16]
- Management expects FY26 loan growth to be broadly in line with system growth, and to outpace the system in FY27, led by corporate, retail and SME segments.
- Mortgages are expected to re‑accelerate, giving the bank more opportunities to cross‑sell unsecured and fee‑rich products such as cards, vehicle loans and consumer loans. [17]
Emkay sees these trends helping HDFC Bank claw back market share lost during the merger and consolidation phase.
2. Deposit mobilisation and improving loan‑to‑deposit ratio
- The brokerage notes that HDFC Bank accounts for roughly 11.8% of system deposits with only about 5% of branches, reflecting a highly productive deposit franchise. [18]
- Deposits have been growing above 12%, faster than loan growth (sub‑10% in most recent quarters), bringing the loan‑to‑deposit ratio (LDR) down from ~110% to around 98%.
- Management aims to bring LDR below 90% over time, even if the path is not linear—supporting funding stability and room for loan growth. [19]
Near‑term, Emkay still expects some margin pressure but believes this will ease from FY27 as borrowings fall, deposits re‑price, CASA ratio improves and loan mix tilts toward higher‑yielding retail and SME assets.
3. ‘Phygital’ investments and operating leverage
The merger has pushed up HDFC Bank’s:
- Cost‑to‑income (C/I) ratio above 40%
- Cost‑to‑assets (C/A) ratio above 2%
Emkay attributes this to sustained investment in both physical branches and digital channels—its “phygital” strategy. The brokerage projects: [20]
- C/I ratio around 37.7% in FY26, 38.2% in FY27 and 36.6% in FY28
- C/A ratio steady near 1.8%
If those estimates hold, operating leverage should kick in as revenue growth outpaces the slower growth in costs.
4. Contained credit costs and strong buffers
Emkay highlights that:
- The bank’s provision coverage ratio (PCR) has been reduced to around 66.6% as it wrote off some loans and focused on recoveries.
- HDFC Bank still has a contingent and floating provision buffer of roughly ₹38,100 crore, equivalent to about 1.4% of loans, which should cushion any impact from the upcoming Expected Credit Loss (ECL) regime. [21]
As a result, Emkay expects only slightly higher credit costs in the near term but sees a high probability that overall asset quality will remain strong.
Earnings and valuation bridge vs ICICI Bank
Emkay’s numbers are aggressive but specific:
- It forecasts Return on Assets (RoA) climbing from an estimated 1.8% in FY26 to 2.0% in FY28.
- Return on Equity (RoE) is projected to rise from 14.4% to 16.2% over the same period. [22]
- By contrast, ICICI Bank’s RoA is expected to moderate from 2.4% to 2.2%, and RoE from 16.7% to 15.4%. [23]
On valuations, Emkay sees HDFC Bank trading near 2.3x 1‑year forward adjusted book value, below its historical mean and slightly below where it believes the bank can trade longer term. [24]
Rating and target: Emkay reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of ₹1,225, implying mid‑teens upside from around the ₹1,000 level. [25]
Fundamentals: what Q2 FY26 numbers say
HDFC Bank’s own Q2 FY26 (quarter ended September 2025) earnings presentation provides the hard backdrop behind these bullish calls: [26]
- Deposits
- Average deposits: ₹27.1 trillion, up 15.1% year‑on‑year and 2.0% quarter‑on‑quarter
- End‑of‑period deposits: ₹28.0 trillion, up 12.1% YoY
- Advances
- Average advances under management: ₹27.9 trillion, up 9.0% YoY
- End‑of‑period gross advances: up 9.9% YoY, 4.4% QoQ
- Margins and efficiency
- Net interest margin (NIM): 3.27%
- Core cost‑to‑income ratio: 39.2%
- Asset quality
- Gross NPA (GNPA): 1.24% overall, 0.99% ex‑agri
- Profitability
- Profit after tax (PAT): ₹186 billion for the quarter
- EPS: ₹12.1 for Q2
- RoA: ~1.9%
- RoE: ~14.4%
- Capital
- Overall capital adequacy ratio: 20.0%
- CET1 ratio: 17.5%
A separate Q2 commentary for the ADR (HDB) earlier this year emphasised strong loan growth and market share gains, but also noted margin compression and a competitive deposit environment, which matches Emkay’s view that near‑term margins are under pressure even as growth remains healthy. [27]
Sector backdrop: S&P sees Indian banks’ profitability improving
The broader environment for Indian banks matters for HDFC Bank’s equity story:
- A report from S&P Global Market Intelligence, summarised by Economic Times on 28 October 2025, argues that sector profitability should improve in the fiscal year starting April 2026 as margin compression eases.
- S&P’s analysts highlight HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and State Bank of India as large lenders with potential upside in share prices, backed by government reforms, expectations of further RBI rate cuts and a stabilising macro backdrop. [28]
That said, the same piece warns that trade‑related headwinds and earlier rate cuts have hurt net interest margins, and that total returns for large banks in the first nine months of 2025 were weaker than in 2024 due to geopolitical tensions and cautious investor sentiment. [29]
In other words: the macro environment is turning from “headwind” to “neutral‑to‑supportive”, which is exactly the phase in which high‑quality lenders typically re‑rate—if they execute.
Analyst targets and forecasts for HDFC Bank stock
India‑listed stock (HDFCBANK)
Two big aggregators give a quick read on Street expectations:
- Investing.com consensus
- 39 analysts cover HDFC Bank
- Average 12‑month target: ₹1,164
- Target range: ₹1,046–₹1,400
- Consensus rating: “Strong Buy”, with 36 buys and 3 holds, and no sells.
- Implied upside: around 16% from current levels, depending on the exact reference price. [30]
- Trendlyne consensus
- Average target: ₹1,124.67
- About 12–13% upside versus a last traded price near ₹1,000.
- Based on 27 reports from 10 brokerages, with some brokers having downgraded the stock’s rating or trimmed targets after the merger and margin squeeze, even while staying broadly constructive. [31]
These numbers are broadly consistent with Emkay’s ₹1,225 target and their thesis that the stock trades below its historical valuation band while earnings growth is likely to accelerate in FY27–FY28.
US ADR (HDB)
For the ADR, MarketWatch aggregates: [32]
- Average recommendation: Buy
- Average target price: $39.66
- Target range: approx. $35–$47
- Number of ratings: 44
With the ADR around $35–36, that implies high‑single‑ to low‑double‑digit upside in dollar terms, broadly aligned with the India‑listed targets.
Another forecast snapshot from MarketBeat notes that some analysts have turned more cautious—downgrading from “Hold” to “Sell” or flagging moderate RoE and margin concerns—suggesting that while the consensus is bullish, not every observer is convinced the re‑rating story is risk‑free. [33]
Short interest and sentiment
A November 11 analysis of HDB’s short interest (Benzinga via Sahm Capital) shows: [34]
- About 14.62 million ADR shares sold short
- Short interest equals roughly 0.29% of free float
- Short interest has risen 3.57% since the prior report
- Days‑to‑cover stands near 4 days based on recent volumes
That’s low by global standards, indicating there is some cautious positioning but no large bearish overhang in the ADR.
Bonus issue and share base: context for valuations
Back in August 2025, HDFC Bank executed its first‑ever bonus issue, allotting: [35]
- 767.7 crore bonus shares of ₹1 each in a 1:1 ratio, doubling the number of equity shares outstanding
- Paid‑up share capital increased to about ₹1,535.4 crore, representing 15.35 billion shares
Because of this 1:1 bonus, per‑share figures such as EPS, book value and price levels are not directly comparable to pre‑August 2025 data without adjusting. Many of the high‑profile “halving” of price levels seen on charts around that time have more to do with the bonus than with fundamental deterioration.
Key risks investors should keep in mind
Even with the upbeat narrative, several risks remain visible in today’s data and commentary:
- Margin compression and funding costs
- Q2 FY26 results and multiple analyst notes flag compressed NIMs as a key issue, driven by higher‑cost deposits and intense competition for liabilities. [36]
- If deposit costs stay elevated longer than Emkay and others expect, the march toward a 2% RoA could be delayed.
- Execution after the merger
- The merger with parent HDFC brought complexity, including systems integration and top/mid‑level management churn. Emkay notes that attrition has been elevated but may now be stabilising. [37]
- Any renewed instability in leadership or credit underwriting could weigh on the re‑rating thesis.
- Regulatory and macro headwinds
- S&P’s sector report points out that trade‑related headwinds and past rate cuts have already dented margins; new regulatory changes or macro shocks could do so again. [38]
- Heavy FII selling in India this year and bursts of aggressive IPO activity have also made the market more volatile.
- Valuation risk
- Even after some de‑rating, HDFC Bank still trades at a premium to sector P/E (low‑20s vs mid‑teens) and above most public‑sector banks. [39]
- If earnings growth disappoints or if other banks close the profitability gap faster than expected, the valuation premium could compress.
- Technical and flow‑based caution
- MarketsMojo’s shift from “bullish” to “mildly bullish” and the mildly bearish signals in weekly MACD and OBV suggest short‑term rallies may face supply from profit‑takers. [40]
- Related coverage also points to heavy call and put option activity around HDFC Bank ahead of the December expiry, a sign that traders are actively hedging or speculating on near‑term moves rather than simply buying and holding. [41]
Bottom line: a near‑blue‑chip priced for patience, not perfection
As of 11 December 2025, HDFC Bank’s equity story looks like this:
- Price: hovering around ₹1,000, close to 52‑week highs but still below the peaks once seen pre‑bonus and pre‑merger.
- Fundamentals: balance sheet growth in the high single‑/low double‑digits, excellent asset quality, strong capital, and improving deposit metrics—but with margins still under pressure. [42]
- Positioning: one of the most heavily traded and liquid stocks in India, with continued foreign institutional interest and moderate but rising short interest in the ADR. [43]
- Street view: broad consensus that the stock is a Buy / Strong Buy, with domestic and global targets clustering in the 12–16% upside range over 12 months, and more aggressive houses like Emkay arguing for a structural re‑rating into FY27–FY28. [44]
For long‑term investors, HDFC Bank on 11 December 2025 does not look like a deep bargain, but it does look like a high‑quality franchise where:
- The downside is cushioned by strong fundamentals and capital,
- The upside depends on management’s ability to convert deposit and loan growth into higher‑quality earnings once the merger dust and margin compression settle.
References
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