New York, February 23, 2026, 15:08 (EST) — Regular session
- NYMEX heating oil futures picked up close to 2%, with distillates gaining traction late in the winter season.
- A winter storm and ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations are keeping the risk premium intact.
- Feb. 25 EIA inventories are in the spotlight for traders, with Geneva headlines set to hit on Feb. 26.
NYMEX heating oil futures rose close to 2% Monday, clearing the $2.52 per gallon mark as distillate prices steadied late in the winter season. April ULSD (HOJ26) gained 4.87 cents to settle at $2.5268 a gallon. U.S. crude prices held steady, while Brent slipped, according to Barchart data.
Heating oil remains the U.S. wholesale benchmark for ultra-low sulfur diesel, continuing to serve as a stand-in for home-heating demand across the Northeast. Shifts in price often ripple through freight costs and, after some delay, show up in retail heating bills.
Crude hovered just off a six-month peak, slipping slightly as attention stayed locked on the ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations and fallout from a Supreme Court decision that dismantled major portions of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. U.S. Customs and Border Protection announced it would stop tariff collections starting 12:01 a.m. EST Tuesday. “Weather’s a wildcard right now,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group, noting diesel crack spreads — a rough gauge of refinery margins — jumped roughly 5%. Politics are steering prices more than anything else, according to Tamas Varga at PVM Oil Associates. Reuters
More than 571,000 homes and businesses lost electricity across the U.S. Northeast as a winter storm barreled through, bringing heavy snowfall, powerful gusts, and hazardous driving. Officials urged residents to avoid travel, while airlines scrapped thousands of flights.
Distillate traders track the crack spread and prompt time-spreads—those are the go-to signals for market tightness, more so than just watching crude outright. Weather events can shake things up; heating oil sometimes breaks away from gasoline, rallying independently for a few sessions.
Traders are watching for the next key data: U.S. inventories, especially distillate levels and how refineries are running. The Energy Information Administration drops its Weekly Petroleum Status Report on Wednesdays at 10:30 a.m. ET.
The numbers are key for hedgers: New York Harbor ULSD contracts are quoted in dollars per gallon, sized at 42,000 gallons each. According to Barchart, every $0.0001 move per gallon equals $4.20 on the contract. Trading hours? Nearly round-the-clock.
Several banks are tuning out the near-term chatter and focusing on the bigger picture for risk premium. Goldman Sachs bumped up its Brent projection for Q4 2026 by $6 to $60, and lifted WTI by the same margin to $56, though it’s still forecasting a surplus that year. The bank flagged potential downside if sanctions on Iran or Russia are eased, which could bring extra barrels to market.
Still, the trade could reverse in a hurry if the Geneva talks ease nerves or temperature forecasts shift higher. Iran’s foreign minister said he plans to meet U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff in Geneva on Thursday, adding there’s “a good chance” diplomacy prevails. Reuters
Coming up: Wednesday’s EIA report, with the agency putting Feb. 25, 2026 as the next scheduled drop. After that, traders are watching Thursday’s U.S.-Iran talks in Geneva, which they flag as the top headline risk for crude and distillates this week.
