New York, March 5, 2026, 13:37 EST — Regular session
- Heating oil climbed to the top of U.S. refined products, with diesel supply risk sending prices up first.
- Crude prices on the rise have distillate-linked contracts whipping around, volatility staying high.
- Shipping headlines grab traders’ attention, while eyes also turn to the upcoming U.S. inventory report for fresh signals.
Heating oil for April delivery in the U.S. surged 32.25 cents, or 9.79%, landing at $3.6163 a gallon Thursday. The contract moved in a range from $3.3464 up to $3.6325, coming close to its highest level in a year.
Heating oil futures follow ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD), the mainstay for U.S. trucking fleets and a critical heat source in parts of the Northeast. Diesel moves, and so can freight expenses and broader inflation bets.
Crude surged, rattled by the U.S.-Israeli standoff with Iran that’s snarling supplies and hitting shipping lanes hard. The Strait of Hormuz is back in focus — it’s the oil world’s bottleneck. Brent picked up $2.92 to reach $84.32 a barrel. U.S. WTI moved up $4.40 earlier, now at $79.06. Iraq’s slashing output too, down almost 1.5 million bpd, according to Reuters. “Crude prices are going to be very sensitive to the Strait’s closure,” said Dennis Kissler, senior VP of trading at BOK Financial. Reuters
U.S. retail diesel jumped 14.7 cents Wednesday, landing at $4.04 a gallon, according to AAA. Diesel futures touched $3.45 at their high. “We could see the average rise to $4.25-$4.45/gal in the days ahead,” said Patrick De Haan, analyst at GasBuddy. Diesel’s tight supply leaves it exposed to geopolitical shocks, StoneX strategist Alex Hodes said. And with higher diesel, “all products” get pricier as freight costs move up, warned energy economist Philip Verleger. Reuters
The newest U.S. inventory data failed to settle market nerves. Distillate inventories, covering both diesel and heating oil, climbed by 0.4 million barrels during the week ended Feb. 27, bringing the total to 120.8 million barrels. Still, that’s roughly 3% under the five-year average, according to the Energy Information Administration.
On NYMEX, the contract trades in dollars and cents per gallon, each lot representing 42,000 gallons of fuel delivered at New York Harbor.
Traders are weighing if the disruption risk will persist past this week or taper off soon. Any change would probably show up in the prompt months first—particularly if Gulf shipping routes remain more stable.
Still, any sign of easing tensions—or a slip in demand with prices up here—could quickly send the market the other way.
The EIA’s weekly petroleum status update lands on March 11, after 10:30 a.m. Eastern—mark your calendar. That’s the next official look at U.S. distillate inventories, coming just days after the latest surge in prices.
