New York, Feb 10, 2026, 06:42 EST — Premarket
- NYMEX heating oil (NY Harbor ULSD) slipped roughly 0.7% in early trading.
- Crude pulled back, giving up some of Monday’s gains that had been driven by shipping risks off the coast of Iran.
- All eyes now turn to Wednesday, when U.S. distillate inventory figures are set for release—the next likely catalyst.
Early Tuesday, U.S. heating oil futures slipped, pulling back slightly following Monday’s stronger finish. The NYMEX heating oil contract (NY Harbor ULSD) fell 1.7 cents, or roughly 0.7%, to $2.3996 a gallon. That’s after settling at $2.4169 the previous day. Trading ranged from $2.3833 up to $2.4233. 1
The contract tracks ultra-low sulfur diesel, a key distillate for both transportation and home heating. Price shifts here often show up rapidly in freight rates and, for the U.S. Northeast, can make their way into winter heating bills.
Oil gave up ground alongside crude benchmarks. Brent eased 24 cents to $68.80 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate shed 30 cents to $64.06, with traders digesting Washington’s new guidance on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. “Unless there are concrete signs of supply disruptions, prices will likely start going lower,” said Tamas Varga, oil analyst at PVM. IG’s Tony Sycamore pointed to lingering uncertainty over escalation and sanctions—keeping a modest risk premium alive—even though recent talks have sounded cautiously positive. The European Union moved to broaden sanctions on Russia, and Indian Oil Corp snapped up six million barrels from West Africa and the Middle East, traders said. 2
Oil prices jumped over 1% on Monday after the U.S. Department of Transportation advised U.S.-flagged ships to keep well clear of Iranian waters going through the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman. Brent moved up 99 cents, closing at $69.04 per barrel; WTI finished 81 cents higher at $64.36. According to Ritterbusch and Associates, February’s trading might not reflect oil fundamentals, but rather shifts in the Iran-driven risk premium. “Extremely difficult to judge,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo, as the market tried to size up the next moves in negotiations. 3
Heating oil often whipsaws more than crude whenever the distillate market tightens up, since a single barrel handles both diesel and winter heating. This time of year, refiners and wholesalers pay sharper attention to inventories, export flows and potential operational snags—much more so than they do with gasoline.
The outlook isn’t clear-cut. The International Energy Agency is projecting oil supply to outpace demand by 3.7 million barrels per day this year, yet prices have held up. Geopolitical tensions and opaque stockpiles are throwing off the standard cues, Reuters columnist Ron Bousso pointed out. 4
The “risk premium” heating oil bulls watch can disappear just as quickly as it shows up. Should tensions ease or shipping lanes keep moving as usual, refined products tend to shed those extra gains, even if nothing much has shifted in the physical fundamentals.
There’s also the domestic angle: if distillate inventories unexpectedly climb, or if demand tapers off, ULSD could come under pressure fast. The diesel “crack spread” matters, too—the margin refiners see from converting crude into diesel—since it hints at whether there’s a reason for them to ramp up distillate output.
Traders are watching for the next key number: U.S. inventory data, out after 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday, Feb. 11. Eyes especially on distillates in the weekly petroleum report. 5
