The Q2 earnings projection has fallen by 22% over the past three months.
Hecla is set to release results after the market closes on Aug. 4.
Hecla Mining Company NYSE:HL edged down 0.8% to $15.02 in trading on Monday afternoon, with U.S. markets open. Spot silver gained 1.3% to reach $58.94 per ounce.
The 2.1 percentage-point difference is significant. The recovery in metal prices has yet to offset declining earnings projections.
FactSet’s average forecast for the second quarter is $0.18 per share, down from $0.23 three months prior—a decrease of 22%. The annual projection declined by 17% to $0.79.
The update stands out as silver prices stayed significantly higher than Hecla’s reported costs, even though the metal saw a steep fall during the quarter.
Based on early LBMA trading figures, the volume-weighted average silver price for the second quarter is estimated at around $73.70, down 11% from Hecla’s first-quarter realized price of $82.70.
The spot price on Monday is 20% lower than the Q2 forecast. If this persists, third-quarter revenue could face greater pressure.
Hecla was behind two key competitors in the most recent afternoon readings:
The stock data was logged at approximately 1:48 p.m. EDT. The silver price was noted at 12:35 p.m.
Hecla confirmed its production and cost forecasts in May. The company projects silver output between 15.1 million and 16.5 million ounces for the year. All-in sustaining costs are estimated to range from $15 to $16.25 per ounce.
Spot silver is approximately $43 above the midpoint of costs. This does not represent a profit margin. The outlook does not factor in Keno Hill and accounts for by-product credits.
A preliminary sensitivity analysis highlights the leverage. Using the 15.8 million-ounce production midpoint, every $1 price change equates to roughly $15.8 million each year in gross metal value. Actual outcomes may vary depending on sales timing and payable output.
Revenue for the first quarter totaled $411 million. Free cash flow from continuing operations set a new record at $144 million. Hecla’s silver output was 3.9 million ounces at an AISC of $8.17, not counting Keno Hill.
The quarter saw particularly favourable conditions. Increased by-product credits reduced costs, and sustaining investment decreased. Hecla forecasts higher capital spending in Q2, with elevated levels anticipated to persist in Q3.
Balance-sheet risk has decreased as well. As of March 31, cash totaled $588 million. After redeeming a note in April, Hecla no longer has any long-term debt.
Chief Executive Rob Krcmarov described it as “the strongest balance sheet in the Company’s recent history.” The buffer offers flexibility should silver prices fluctuate.
Hecla plans to publish its second-quarter results after the market closes on Aug. 4. The company’s conference call is set for Aug. 5 at 10 a.m. EDT.
Investors are set to monitor Keno Hill grades, track Lucky Friday costs and capital expenditures, and assess whether the full-year outlook is maintained.
Risks are evident. Silver is prone to sharp reversals. Ramp-up progress at Keno Hill, ore grade variations, fluctuations in by-product prices and construction season expenditures may all pressure cash flow.
Currently, Hecla does not move strictly in line with silver prices but instead follows earnings revision trends. The discount it trades at will be tested with the Aug. 4 report.
What is Hecla's current share price, and how close is it to its 52-week highs and lows?
Hecla was last seen trading around $15.02 on Monday afternoon, down roughly 0.8% from Friday's close. At this level, its equity market capitalization stood at about $10.13 billion. The intraday price ranged between $14.69 and $15.53. The shares are trading approximately 56% below their 52-week high of $34.17, while remaining 167% above the 52-week low of $5.62.
Could the current level of short interest amplify the next price shift?
As of July 15, short interest totaled 41.15 million shares, making up 6.19% of Hecla’s public float. The average daily volume was about 26.13 million shares. By 1:52 p.m. Eastern on Monday, trading volume hit 26.1 million shares. That is equivalent to about 1.6 days of average trading activity. While this may fuel greater price swings, it does not ensure a short squeeze will occur.
What is the upcoming trigger for HL shares?
Hecla will release its second-quarter operational and financial results after the NYSE closes on August 4, with a conference call set for August 5 at 10 a.m. Eastern time. Market focus will be on silver production, Keno grade levels, operating costs, and cash following redemption. A straight-line annual run-rate would be 3.8–4.1 million ounces per quarter, but this figure does not represent official company quarterly guidance. Hecla maintained its full-year forecast of 15.1–16.5 million ounces after the end of the first quarter.
Was Hecla's first-quarter result a profit of $0.25 or a loss of $0.03?
Hecla's continuing operations posted a profit of $164.7 million, or $0.25 per basic share. However, the company posted a $19.2 million net loss to common shareholders, translating to a basic per-share loss of $0.03. This was largely due to a $192 million non-cash write-down at Casa Berardi. Revenue from continuing operations totaled $411.4 million. Non-GAAP free cash flow from these operations was $143.7 million.
Does Hecla remain on course to achieve its silver target for 2026?
Hecla continues to expect full-year silver production of 15.1–16.5 million ounces. Output for the first quarter totaled 3.9 million ounces, representing 24%–26% of the annual forecast. Greens Creek provided 2.2 million ounces, while Lucky Friday delivered 1.2 million, and Keno Hill supplied 0.5 million ounces amid ongoing power constraints and softer grades. Management has affirmed its guidance, with focus now turning to second-quarter performance.
What is the significance of the current dip in silver prices?
Hecla derived approximately 73% of its first-quarter continuing-operations revenue from silver. During that period, Hecla’s realized price for silver stood at $82.70 per ounce. CME September silver futures traded at $58.89 as of 9:22 a.m. Central on Monday, nearly 29% lower than the company’s realized price. The reported total-silver AISC falls in the $15.00–$16.25 range, resulting in a gap of more than $42. Keno Hill is not included in consolidated silver AISC as it continues ramping up. By-product credits also make that gap not directly comparable to a pure margin outlook.
Is Hecla’s debt risk now mostly resolved?
At the end of March, cash stood at $587.6 million, with total debt at $266.3 million, resulting in $321.3 million net cash ahead of the April note redemption. Hecla subsequently paid down $263 million of 7.25% senior notes. The firm now carries no long-term debt. The available revolver remains at $225 million, alongside a $75 million accordion. Leverage on the balance sheet has significantly reduced, although operating risks persist. The August report will show the first balance sheet after the redemption at quarter end.
Is Keno Hill making a fast enough recovery?
Keno Hill delivered 0.5 million ounces of silver in the first quarter, representing only 16%–17% of its full-year guidance range of 2.9–3.2 million ounces. This output falls short of an even quarterly run-rate, though mine operations often fluctuate across periods. Lower power supply in Yukon and decreased grades of ore processed limited production. Management anticipated improvements in both mined and milled grades during the second quarter. Achieving the 440-tonne-per-day goal will still need upgrades to infrastructure and changes to licensing. Hecla described this process as multi-year, putting the focus on grade improvement in Q2 as the next milestone.
How reliable is Hecla’s target of producing 20 million ounces of silver?
Hecla outlines a medium-term scenario targeting approximately 20 million ounces of silver per year. Present 2026 forecasts are at 15.1–16.5 million ounces. The difference hinges mostly on scaling Keno to 440 tpd and a possible restart at Midas. Keno still requires several years for permitting and infrastructure. At Midas, Hecla is sharing exploration results but has not specified a production timeline. Thus, the 20 million ounce target remains a possibility rather than official guidance.
How does the current valuation compare to its latest cash flow figures?
Hecla's market capitalization stood at about $10.13 billion at Monday’s close. If the company's non-GAAP first-quarter free cash flow is annualized, it comes to approximately $575 million. This puts the company’s valuation at roughly 17.6 times its annualized free cash flow. However, first-quarter realized silver prices averaged $82.70, which is significantly higher than current futures pricing. If silver remains close to $59, first-quarter results could exaggerate Hecla's ongoing cash generation. This represents a current view rather than a reliable forecast.
Mateusz Kaczmarek is a financial and technology journalist at TS2.tech. His coverage ranges from stocks and artificial intelligence to semiconductors and developments across global markets. He graduated from the Poznań University of Economics and Business and worked in financial analysis before becoming a business journalist. Follow Mateusz Kaczmarek on Google News.
