Mumbai, December 13, 2025 — Hindalco Industries Limited (NSE: HINDALCO, BSE: 500440) is ending the week in focus after a strong three-session run that pushed the stock to ₹852.10 at Friday’s close, up 3.37% on the day with heavier trading volumes than earlier in the week. [1]
With Indian markets shut on Saturday, the conversation around Hindalco stock on 13.12.2025 is being shaped by a mix of (1) a fresh Novelis SEC filing about auditor rotation, (2) improving sentiment in metals as aluminium prices stay firm globally, and (3) brokerage target revisions that show a widening gap between bull and bear cases. [2]
Hindalco stock snapshot: where the share price stands now
- Last close (Dec 12, 2025): ₹852.10
- Day range (Dec 12): ₹830.60–₹855.00
- 52-week range: ₹546.45–₹864.00 [3]
Market tracking notes indicate Hindalco has been “up for a third straight session,” with the stock also showing strong relative performance over the past year compared with broader indices. [4]
What’s moving Hindalco right now: the macro tailwind for metals
Hindalco is a classic “macro + execution” stock: it reacts to aluminium/copper pricing (macro), but it also gets repriced on company-specific events—especially anything involving Novelis, its US-based subsidiary.
Aluminium is getting the spotlight again
A key support for sentiment is tightening global aluminium dynamics. Reuters reported that China’s aluminium exports fell 9.2% (first 11 months of 2025), while production is expected to be near the country’s annual cap—a setup that has helped lift benchmark aluminium prices. Reuters also noted London aluminium prices around $2,920/ton, the highest since May 2022 (as of early December). [5]
India’s metal stocks have been tracking China cues
In Indian market commentary, metal stocks were also supported by optimism after China signaled a more “proactive” fiscal stance, alongside a weaker US dollar—factors that can improve the near-term pricing environment for commodities and commodity-linked equities. [6]
Today’s key corporate headline: Novelis auditor rotation disclosed in SEC filing
The most concrete “new” development dated around 13.12.2025 is tied to Novelis.
In a Novelis Form 8-K filed on SEC EDGAR, the company disclosed that on December 8, 2025, its Audit Committee approved the selection of Ernst & Young LLP (EY) to serve as independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2028, subject to standard acceptance and independence procedures and execution of an engagement letter. [7]
Important detail for investors: this is structured as a planned rotation. The filing states the change becomes effective after PwC completes the audit for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2027 and Novelis files its Form 10-K for that year. The filing explicitly links this rotation to mandatory audit firm rotation requirements in India, where Hindalco (the indirect parent) is located. [8]
Why this matters (even if it’s not an operational change):
- It reduces ambiguity: this appears driven by compliance structure rather than a sudden dispute.
- It keeps Novelis in the news cycle at a time when investors are already hypersensitive to Novelis cash flows, capex, and operational stability. [9]
Hindalco also published a fresh domestic primary aluminium price list effective 13.12.2025
On Hindalco’s website, the company published a Primary Aluminium Products’ Price Ready Reckoner effective 13.12.2025, listing basic prices (₹/MT) across several products. Examples include:
- P0406 (99.85% min): ₹304,500/MT
- P0610 / P1020 / EC Grade Ingot & Sow / Cast Bar: ₹303,000/MT
- EC Grade Wire Rods (9.5 mm, conductivity 61% min): ₹311,750/MT
- Billets (AA6063) Dia 7″, 8″, 9″: ₹320,600/MT
- Billets (AA6063) Dia 5″, 6″: ₹322,100/MT [10]
The same document also shows a quantity discount structure (combined monthly sale): Nil up to 250 MT, and ₹1,000/MT for quantities above 250 MT, with taxes/freight/godown charges treated separately. [11]
Investors typically treat such lists as directional (not a clean proxy for realized LME-linked pricing or consolidated margins), but the timing adds to the “fresh data” mix around Hindalco on Dec 13. [12]
ESG update: Hindalco disclosed an NSE Sustainability ESG rating of 69
Hindalco also recently disclosed that NSE Sustainability Ratings and Analytics Ltd assigned the company an ESG rating of “69”. The exchange filing notes that Hindalco did not engage the provider and that the ESG report was prepared independently based on public-domain information; the company said it received email intimation on December 9, 2025 (9:08 p.m.). [13]
The big swing factor remains Novelis: fire impact, restart timeline, and cash flow
If Hindalco’s India business is the engine, Novelis is the turbocharger—powerful, but capable of making the ride volatile.
Oswego fire: timeline and expected restart
Novelis disclosed that a fire broke out at its Oswego, New York facility (hot mill area) and that it expects to restart the hot mill in December 2025, after restoration work. [14]
Indian brokerage coverage has emphasized the financial impact: one report cited Novelis guidance that free cash flow for the current year could be negatively impacted by $550–650 million due to the incident, and that production ramp-up after restart may take several weeks. [15]
Broker view: the “near-term pain, FY27 recovery” framing
In a widely-circulated note, Nuvama downgraded Hindalco to Hold with a revised target price of ₹838, pointing to:
- fire-related disruption at Oswego and potential future volume loss,
- capex inflation concerns (including at Bay Minette),
- and pressure from tariffs/costs (partly offset by internal efficiency actions). [16]
That same coverage also cited estimates of an EBITDA hit of $100–150 million in the second half of FY26 and flagged that a large portion (stated as 70–80%) could be recoverable via insurance—though timing and accounting treatment can still matter for reported periods. [17]
Hindalco’s response: planned equity infusion into Novelis
Adding to the Novelis narrative, The Economic Times reported earlier that Hindalco planned to infuse $750 million of equity into Novelis, funding it via debt at the parent level, to support the subsidiary after the fire-related disruption and cash-flow pressure. [18]
Earnings and operations: what the latest results say
Hindalco’s most recent quarterly scorecard (Q2 FY26) helped explain why the stock has stayed resilient despite Novelis headlines.
Reuters reported that Hindalco posted a 21.3% rise in consolidated net profit to ₹47.41 billion for the quarter ended September 30, beating analyst estimates, with firmer commodity prices helping offset tariff-related pressure at Novelis. Reuters also noted:
- benchmark three-month aluminium and copper prices gained 8.2% and 5.6% year-on-year in the quarter,
- Novelis revenue rose 15.1% on higher aluminium prices, while margins remained pressured by elevated scrap costs and tariff-related headwinds,
- India segments showed growth (copper revenue +11%; aluminium upstream +10%; downstream +20%). [19]
From Hindalco’s own Q2 FY26 communication, the company highlighted strong performance in its Aluminium Upstream business, including industry-best EBITDA margins of 45%, and said downstream performance benefited from higher volumes and mix; copper was described as resilient despite lower TC/RCs. [20]
Strategic angle: Hindalco linked to Peru copper asset discussions
On the copper side, Reuters reported that Hindalco and Adani were exploring investments in Peru’s copper sector, potentially via joint ventures or taking stakes in existing operations, as India seeks to secure copper supply chains amid long-term demand growth. The report cited comments from Peru’s ambassador to India and placed the discussions in the context of India–Peru free trade negotiations. [21]
While early-stage, the market tends to track such developments because copper is increasingly treated as an “electrification metal” with multi-year demand drivers (power grids, EVs, renewables). [22]
Forecasts and analyst targets: bulls vs bears are fighting over Novelis and aluminium
Analyst positioning around Hindalco in December 2025 can be summarized as: “aluminium upcycle + India execution” vs “Novelis disruption + capex/tariff uncertainty.”
Bull case: CLSA upgrades to Outperform, raises target
The Times of India reported that CLSA upgraded Hindalco to Outperform with a target price raised to ₹965. The cited rationale includes:
- even at an LME aluminium price assumption of $2,600 (versus spot levels mentioned in the report), capacity and margin expansion could potentially double EBITDA over five years,
- near-term concerns at Novelis (capex escalation and plant fire) could be offset by a stronger aluminium price outlook,
- demand described as resilient, with a note that Indonesia capacity additions could face power availability constraints. [23]
Cautious case: Nuvama’s Hold and focus on capex + disruption
Nuvama’s downgrade coverage (via Financial Express) is more cautious, explicitly tying the rating to margin pressure, capex inflation, and the Oswego fire’s impact on cash flows and near-term earnings trajectory. [24]
Street consensus: clustered near the current price
As of 13 Dec 2025, Trendlyne showed a consensus target of ₹836.86 versus the last traded price region around ₹852, implying limited upside in the aggregate and a “hold”-type positioning. [25]
(Note: targets vary across houses and change with commodity assumptions. Readers should treat them as scenario indicators, not certainties.) [26]
What investors are watching next
Going into the second half of December and early 2026, Hindalco’s “next move” is likely to be driven by a short list of measurable triggers:
- Aluminium pricing and China supply signals
Any confirmation that supply remains tight (exports down, production capped) tends to support the aluminium complex. [27] - Novelis Oswego restart and ramp-up execution
The market will be hypersensitive to whether December restart plans hold and how quickly production normalizes. [28] - Novelis cash flow and funding optics
The $750 million equity infusion plan and how it interacts with broader capex commitments will remain central to the bear case debate. [29] - India business margin durability
Hindalco’s India upstream margins and downstream volume/mix execution are a stabilizer when Novelis volatility rises. [30] - Copper sourcing strategy and overseas asset optionality
Peru discussions are early, but copper supply security is becoming a strategic theme with real valuation implications over time. [31]
Bottom line (as of 13.12.2025)
Hindalco stock is being pulled by two strong forces at once: supportive aluminium macro and Novelis-specific uncertainty. The near-term narrative is dominated by execution at Novelis (restart, cash flow, capex discipline), while the medium-term debate hinges on whether higher aluminium prices and capacity/margin expansion can deliver the kind of multi-year earnings growth that bullish brokerages are modeling. [32]
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.sec.gov, 3. www.moneycontrol.com, 4. www.capitalmarket.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.moneycontrol.com, 7. www.sec.gov, 8. www.sec.gov, 9. www.sec.gov, 10. www.hindalco.com, 11. www.hindalco.com, 12. www.hindalco.com, 13. bsmedia.business-standard.com, 14. investors.novelis.com, 15. m.economictimes.com, 16. www.financialexpress.com, 17. www.financialexpress.com, 18. m.economictimes.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.hindalco.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. timesofindia.indiatimes.com, 24. www.financialexpress.com, 25. trendlyne.com, 26. timesofindia.indiatimes.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. investors.novelis.com, 29. m.economictimes.com, 30. www.hindalco.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com
