Hindustan Copper share price today: trading just below fresh highs
Hindustan Copper Ltd (NSE: HINDCOPPER, BSE: 513599) continued its sharp rally on 8 December 2025, with the stock changing hands around ₹375–₹377 in early trade. Multiple live feeds show the stock hitting an intraday high close to ₹378 and a low near ₹371, placing it effectively at its 52‑week high band of about ₹184–₹378. [1]
At this price, Hindustan Copper’s market capitalisation is roughly ₹36,000 crore, making it one of the larger names in India’s non‑ferrous metals space and among the top copper‑linked plays on the domestic exchanges. [2]
The recent move has also turbo‑charged returns. Broker and data platforms indicate:
- 1‑year return: ~28%
- 3‑year return: ~217%
- 5‑year return: ~767%, turning the PSU into a long‑term multibagger for patient holders. [3]
Trendlyne data further highlights that Hindustan Copper has surged about 14–15% over the past week, outperforming the Nifty 50 by around 15 percentage points, with volumes above 7 million shares and a “New 52‑week high” tag flashing on screens on 8 December. [4]
Why the stock is rallying: three big drivers
1. Strong Q2 FY26 earnings and improving profitability
Hindustan Copper’s latest leg of the rally really began after its Q2 FY26 (September 2025 quarter) results.
Key numbers from exchange filings and media summaries: [5]
- Revenue from operations: around ₹718 crore, up roughly 38–39% YoY (vs ~₹518 crore last year).
- Net profit: about ₹184–186 crore, up 80–83% YoY.
- EBITDA: ~₹282 crore, implying a margin near 39%, versus ~29% in the year‑ago quarter.
- Q2 EPS: around ₹1.9 per share.
Business Today and other market trackers noted that the stock jumped almost 8% immediately after the results, with market cap rising to roughly ₹35,000+ crore on the day. [6]
Q1 FY26 was also solid, with revenue around ₹516 crore, up about 4–5% YoY, and net profit climbing roughly 18–19% YoY to ~₹134 crore, helping lift full‑year run‑rate earnings. [7]
Analytics platform Meyka estimates trailing‑twelve‑month earnings per share at around ₹5.8–₹6 with a net margin in the mid‑20s, which is consistent with financial data from Screener and rating reports. [8]
2. Copper prices at record levels
The rally is not happening in a vacuum: copper itself is on a tear.
On global exchanges, LME copper futures recently crossed about $11,400 per tonne, a record zone, after a roughly 27% year‑to‑date rise, driven by mine outages in Indonesia, Chile, the DRC and Australia, as well as low warehouse stocks. [9]
Equitymaster’s commodity research points out that global refined copper demand is projected to grow from around 26.3 million tonnes in 2025 to 30–32 million tonnes by 2030, implying a 3–4% annual growth rate, with even larger structural demand expected by 2040 as electrification and renewables scale up. [10]
In India, MCX copper for the December contract was trading near ₹1,094 per kg on the morning of 8 December, not far from its own recent peaks. [11]
A Reuters report on JSW’s copper foray notes that India’s copper demand is already over 750,000 tonnes annually, while domestic refined production is only about 555,000 tonnes, leaving a sizable import gap. With Vedanta’s Sterlite smelter still shut, only Hindalco and Hindustan Copper currently produce copper domestically in a meaningful way. [12]
Put simply: Hindustan Copper is riding both a cyclical price up‑move and a structural demand story.
3. Aggressive mine expansion and strategic tie‑ups
Several recent corporate developments have strengthened the growth narrative:
- Rakha mine lease extension (Jharkhand):
In September 2025, Hindustan Copper executed a 20‑year extension of the Rakha Mining Lease Deed with the Jamshedpur district administration, triggering an intraday share price jump of nearly 8%. Management called it a crucial step towards reopening and expanding the Rakha copper mine, a key asset for boosting domestic production. [13] - Mine Developer & Operator (MDO) model and capacity roadmap:
Trade Brains and other outlets highlight that Hindustan Copper has appointed South West Mining Ltd (SWML) as MDO for a cluster of projects including: restarting Rakha, developing a new underground mine at Chapri, and commissioning a new concentrator plant, under a 20‑year agreement extendable by another decade. [14] The company is pursuing a long‑term plan to raise mining capacity from about 4 million tonnes per annum to 12.2 MTPA by FY31, with intermediate milestones across FY26–FY29 and total capex of roughly ₹2,000 crore over 5–6 years. The Kendadih mine is slated to add capacity by late 2025, while Rakha itself is targeted to restart operations by Q4 FY26. [15] - MoU with NTPC Mining for critical minerals:
On 2 December 2025, the company announced a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with NTPC Mining Ltd (NML) to jointly participate in auctions of copper and other critical mineral blocks, and to collaborate in exploration, development and processing. This regulatory filing was widely cited as a catalyst for the stock’s near‑8% surge on 4 December. [16] - JSW partnership via mine transfer:
Earlier in 2025, JSW Group signed a ₹26 billion deal to operate two copper mines acquired from Hindustan Copper for 20 years, with an option to extend by 10 years, while also planning a 500,000‑tonne smelter in Odisha. The arrangement effectively monetises some of HCL’s resource base and underscores the strategic value of its mining portfolio in an undersupplied market. [17]
Together, these moves underpin the long‑term growth assumption that production can more than triple this decade, which is central to many bullish forecasts on the stock. [18]
Short‑term technical view: analysts remain upbeat on 8 December
Technical and trading desks have been especially active around Hindustan Copper this week:
- Series of 52‑week highs:
MarketsMojo and Economic Times note that the stock has repeatedly printed new 52‑week highs between ₹368 and ₹371+ over the last few sessions, backed by strong volumes. Historical data from Investing.com shows the latest close around ₹374.95 on 8 December, up sharply from late‑November levels in the low ₹320s. [19] - ETMarkets trading guide:
In its 7 December “Market Trading Guide,” ETMarkets highlighted Hindustan Copper as one of the stocks to watch, with technical experts pointing to a breakout from consolidation and a bullish RSI crossover, framing it as a candidate for short‑term gains alongside Lemon Tree and PB Fintech. [20] - Hindi ET ‘stocks to buy’ for 8 December:
The Economic Times Hindi edition listed Hindustan Copper among five technically strong stocks to buy for Monday (8 December), citing positive momentum and supportive chart structures from analyst Rupak De of LKP Securities. [21] - Weekly levels from EquityPandit:
A recent EquityPandit “HINDCOPPER Outlook for the Week” flagged immediate support near ₹344 and resistance zones around ₹387 and ₹402, implying that the stock is now trading close to the upper end of their weekly range, where profit‑booking can emerge even within an overall bullish trend. [22] - Algorithmic short‑term forecasts:
Quant tools such as Munafasutra and WalletInvestor, which use purely price‑based models, project near‑term trading bands mostly in the ₹348–₹400 zone over the next two weeks, with a 14‑day “target range” that tops out around ₹388–₹389. [23]
These technical signals broadly agree that momentum is strong but stretched, with the stock already running well ahead of the broader indices in the short term.
Brokerage research and stock forecasts
Anand Rathi: “Right Place at the Right Time”
On 18 November 2025, Anand Rathi initiated coverage on Hindustan Copper with a BUY rating and a target price of ₹450 per share, describing the company as being “in the right place at the right time” as copper enters a multi‑year tightness phase. [24]
Their thesis, as summarised via Trendlyne and report snippets, rests on a few pillars:
- Production volumes expected to more than 3.5x to 12.2 MTPA by FY31, driven by mine lease extensions (notably Rakha) and the capex/MDO strategy. [25]
- Rising domestic copper demand from renewables, EVs, grid expansion and data centres. [26]
- A strong balance sheet and sovereign backing that allow the company to stomach a heavy capex cycle relative to peers. [27]
Trendlyne’s consensus page effectively mirrors this call: with only a single active broker covering the stock at the moment, the average target price stands at ₹450, implying about 19–21% upside from the current ~₹376–₹377. [28]
Quantitative models: WalletInvestor’s 1‑year and 5‑year projections
On the purely quantitative side, WalletInvestor’s technical‑analysis engine shows: [29]
- Current reference price (8 Dec 2025): ~₹374.20
- 1‑year forecast: around ₹381 per share – only modestly higher than today.
- 5‑year forecast (to late 2030): around ₹595, implying an estimated gain of about 59% over five years if the model plays out.
Interestingly, while the 5‑year trajectory implies positive returns, the site labels the stock as “not so good” for a 1‑year horizon, underscoring how volatile and path‑dependent commodity‑linked names can be even within an upward trend.
The broader “copper basket” view
Equitymaster’s recent features on “Top copper stocks to watch as prices hit record highs” and on why “everyone on Dalal Street is talking about Hindustan Copper” position the PSU alongside Vedanta and Hindalco as a prime beneficiary of the emerging copper cycle in India. Their commentary emphasises rising global demand, chronic under‑investment in new mines and the limited number of listed plays that offer direct copper exposure. [30]
However, many of these notes also warn that the stock has already seen significant re‑rating, and future returns will depend on whether the promised production ramp‑up actually arrives on time and on budget. [31]
Fundamentals, credit profile and ownership
Profitability and leverage
ICRA’s October 2025 rating rationale paints a picture of a profitable, low‑leverage PSU: [32]
- FY25 operating income: ~₹2,071 crore (vs ₹1,717 crore in FY24).
- FY25 PAT: ~₹469 crore (vs ~₹296 crore in FY24).
- Operating margin: ~38.5% in FY25, up from ~33%.
- PAT margin: ~22–23%, rising further to about 26% in Q1 FY26.
- Debt metrics: total‑debt‑to‑EBITDA near 0.2x; interest coverage in triple digits, indicating negligible financial risk.
Screener and Smart‑Investing data put TTM revenue around ₹2,294 crore and TTM profit around ₹573 crore, implying an EPS near ₹5.9 and a trailing P/E of roughly 63x at current prices, as well as a price‑to‑book ratio around 12x. [33]
ICRA maintains a [ICRA]AA+ (Stable) rating on HCL’s long‑term bank facilities and [ICRA]A1+ on short‑term instruments, citing strong liquidity, robust margins and sovereign ownership, while flagging large capex requirements and contingent liabilities as watch points. [34]
Dividend and payout track record
Hindustan Copper has been a steady, if low‑yield, dividend payer:
- For FY25, the board declared a final dividend of ₹1.46 per share, with an ex‑date of 18 September 2025, equivalent to about 29.2% of face value. [35]
- Over the past several years, the company has maintained a dividend payout ratio close to 30% of profitability, according to multiple data providers. [36]
At the current share price near ₹376, that translates to a trailing dividend yield of roughly 0.4%, so the stock is clearly being valued more for its growth and scarcity value than as an income play. [37]
Shareholding pattern: government‑owned, FII interest rising
Latest shareholding pattern for the September 2025 quarter shows: [38]
- Promoter (Government of India):66.14%, fully unpledged.
- Foreign institutional investors (FII/FPI): holding increased from 3.71% to 5.05% during the quarter, with the number of FII/FPI investors rising from 160 to 169.
- Mutual funds: stake reduced from 2.74% to 0.49%, though insurance companies (notably LIC) still hold about 5.5%.
- Public shareholders: around 22.8%, spread across more than six lakh individual investors.
This pattern suggests a gradual shift from domestic institutions to foreign investors, even as the state retains a clear controlling stake.
Valuation, risks and what to watch next
At around ₹375–₹377, Hindustan Copper trades at: [39]
- ~63x trailing earnings,
- ~12x book value, and
- an enterprise value roughly 16x–18x trailing EBITDA (based on public numbers and simple estimates).
For a cyclical, commodity‑linked business, these multiples are elevated and largely reflect expectations of sustained high copper prices plus successful execution of the 3.5x production ramp‑up.
Key risks often cited by analysts and rating agencies include: [40]
- Copper price risk: A correction in global copper prices—due to slower global growth, new supply, or policy shocks—could quickly compress margins and de‑rate the stock.
- Execution risk: Delays or cost overruns in restarting Rakha, ramping Kendadih and delivering the full 12.2 MTPA plan could undermine the volume‑growth story.
- Operational concentration: ICRA notes that smelting and refining operations at some units are currently suspended; the bulk of earnings still come from mining and concentrate sales, which exposes HCL to grade and cost variability.
- Policy and PSU risk: As a government‑owned entity, HCL is exposed to disinvestment decisions, changes in mining and environmental regulations, and broader PSU governance issues. Past stake sales via OFS illustrate that future supply from the promoter cannot be ruled out. [41]
On the positive side, the combination of:
- a tightening global copper market,
- India’s push for renewable energy, EVs and grid upgrades, and
- Hindustan Copper’s unique position as the only vertically integrated government‑owned copper producer
means the company is structurally well‑placed if it delivers on its mine‑expansion roadmap. [42]
For now, as of 8 December 2025, Hindustan Copper is trading like a high‑beta proxy for the copper supercycle: richly valued, technically over‑bought, but supported by improving fundamentals, rising foreign interest and a credible medium‑term growth story.
References
1. www.moneycontrol.com, 2. www.moneycontrol.com, 3. dhan.co, 4. trendlyne.com, 5. www.kotaksecurities.com, 6. www.businesstoday.in, 7. www.business-standard.com, 8. meyka.com, 9. www.theaustralian.com.au, 10. www.equitymaster.com, 11. www.livemint.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.business-standard.com, 14. tradebrains.in, 15. tradebrains.in, 16. upstox.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. images.assettype.com, 19. www.marketsmojo.com, 20. m.economictimes.com, 21. hindi.economictimes.com, 22. www.equitypandit.com, 23. munafasutra.com, 24. images.assettype.com, 25. images.assettype.com, 26. www.whalesbook.com, 27. www.icra.in, 28. trendlyne.com, 29. walletinvestor.com, 30. www.equitymaster.com, 31. images.assettype.com, 32. www.icra.in, 33. www.screener.in, 34. www.icra.in, 35. www.moneycontrol.com, 36. www.screener.in, 37. www.indmoney.com, 38. trendlyne.com, 39. trendlyne.com, 40. www.icra.in, 41. www.taxtmi.com, 42. en.wikipedia.org


