Hindustan Zinc Limited (NSE: HINDZINC, BSE: 500188) is ending 2025 with the kind of momentum commodity bulls dream about: a sharp stock move driven by an even sharper move in silver.
On December 24, 2025, Hindustan Zinc shares climbed roughly 3%–4% in early trade, touching an intraday high of about ₹632 on the BSE as silver prices pushed through the $72/oz mark for the first time, according to market reports. [1]
The stock was also quoted around ₹628 on the BSE during the session—an eye-catching level because it places Hindustan Zinc near fresh highs after a rapid run-up in recent weeks. [2]
For investors, the story is no longer simply “zinc and lead.” The market is increasingly treating Hindustan Zinc as a silver-linked earnings machine—and that has big implications for where the stock could go next, and what could derail it.
What’s driving Hindustan Zinc share price today
1) Silver is doing silver things (aka: chaotic, powerful, and profitable)
The immediate trigger on 24 Dec 2025 was the new all-time high in silver, with reports noting silver’s massive 2025 rally (some estimates pegged the year’s gain at 140%+). [3]
That matters because Hindustan Zinc is not a “tiny silver by-product” story. It’s widely described as one of the world’s major silver producers, and silver has been a meaningful profit driver in recent quarters. [4]
2) The market is repricing “operating leverage” to metals
When commodity realizations move fast, miners with (a) large production scale and (b) strong cost position tend to see a non-linear move in profitability expectations. A recent brokerage initiation from Jefferies explicitly frames Hindustan Zinc as a key beneficiary of rising silver and zinc prices and highlights its low-cost position in zinc mining. [5]
The latest filings investors are tracking this week
Beyond the commodity tailwind, Hindustan Zinc has also made several fresh stock-exchange disclosures in December. These matter less for long-term earnings power, but they do shape headline risk and governance narratives.
Compounding fee order tied to older compliance lapses
Hindustan Zinc disclosed an interim order related to compounding under the Companies Act for not mentioning Director Identification Numbers (DINs) in filings across FY2014-15 to FY2020-21. The company said the lapse was inadvertent, has been rectified from FY2022 onward, and the order has no operational or financial impact; the total compounding fee disclosed was ₹63.90 lakh (also applicable to ex-whole time director(s)). [6]
GST-related penalty orders (company plans to appeal)
In separate December disclosures, Hindustan Zinc reported receiving GST-related orders that include penalties and tax/interest demands:
- A penalty of ₹45.98 lakh (with tax demand and applicable interest) related to input tax credit matters for FY2018-19 and FY2019-20, with the company indicating it intends to appeal and does not expect material financial impact. [7]
- Another penalty of ₹19.59 lakh (with tax demand and applicable interest) related to input tax credit for FY2021-22, again with plans to appeal and no expected material financial impact. [8]
New ESG rating disclosure
Hindustan Zinc also disclosed that ESG Risk Assessments and Insights Limited assigned the company an ESG rating of “62” as part of an annual assessment process, noting the company did not engage the agency for the assessment (i.e., it was independently prepared using public information). [9]
Postal ballot results: board appointments approved
A postal ballot process concluded on 20 Dec 2025, and Hindustan Zinc reported shareholders approved:
- Appointment of a Non-Executive Independent Director (special resolution), and
- Appointment of a Government Nominee Director (ordinary resolution). [10]
Earnings and fundamentals: why silver has become central to the bull case
Q2 FY26: profit lift supported by silver strength
For the quarter ended September 30, 2025 (Q2 FY26), Reuters reported Hindustan Zinc posted a 14% year-on-year increase in net profit to ₹26.49 billion, helped by strong silver pricing and steady zinc trends supported by local demand. [11]
First half FY26: record mined metal production (per company results coverage)
Market coverage of the company’s Q2 results highlighted that in H1 FY26, Hindustan Zinc delivered its highest-ever mined metal production of about 523,000 tonnes, with EBITDA of ₹8,328 crore and PAT of ₹4,883 crore for the first half. [12]
The key narrative: even with normal operational variability (grades, mix, maintenance), Hindustan Zinc has been presenting itself—and increasingly being priced by the market—as a cash-generative, cost-disciplined miner with a growing “precious metals torque.”
Analyst forecasts and targets: Jefferies turns bullish, others are more tempered
Forecasts are where things get spicy, because the stock’s surge into late December means targets set just weeks/months ago may already be in the rear-view mirror.
Jefferies initiates coverage: “Buy”, target ₹660
Jefferies initiated coverage with a “Buy” rating and a ₹660 target price, explicitly calling Hindustan Zinc a major beneficiary of rising silver and zinc prices and citing its cost position. [13]
How the market reads this: With the stock trading in the high-₹600s zone intraday on Dec 24, Jefferies’ target implies the Street sees room for further upside if the commodity backdrop stays supportive.
YES Securities (Q2 FY26 report): “ADD”, target ₹551
A detailed Q2 FY26 research note from YES Securities assigned an “ADD” rating with a target price of ₹551, alongside projections for revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth over FY25–FY28E. The note also highlighted:
- Q2 revenue of ₹85,250 million and EBITDA of ₹44,260 million (as presented in the report),
- Margin strength supported by realizations, and
- Guidance adjustments (see next section). [14]
Why this matters today: Because the stock has rallied materially since mid-October, a ₹551 target (set when the report cited a CMP around ₹500) underscores a real-time tension: commodity-driven momentum vs. valuation discipline. [15]
Guidance and operational levers: volumes, costs, and capex
A core question for 2026 is whether the company can translate the commodity “gift” into durable earnings through volumes + costs, not just prices.
Production guidance tweaks (as captured in analyst coverage)
YES Securities’ Q2 FY26 note pointed to the company maintaining mined metal guidance while trimming refined and silver guidance:
- Mined metal guidance: ~1,125 kt (±10 kt) maintained
- Refined metal guidance: reduced to ~1,075 kt (±10 kt) from ~1,100 kt
- Silver guidance: reduced to about 680 tonnes (±10 tonnes) from ~700 tonnes [16]
Cost focus remains a defining feature
The same note highlights management commentary on cost drivers (grade improvement, coal mix, renewable share) and flags an ambition for zinc cost of production exit rates in the $950–$975/t zone by Q4 FY26 (as cited in the report). [17]
Growth projects: tailings reprocessing and the “2x” ambition
Hindustan Zinc’s longer arc isn’t only about riding prices. It’s also about expanding and extracting more value from what it already owns.
Tailings reprocessing plant: ₹38.23 billion investment
Reuters reported Hindustan Zinc plans to invest ₹38.23 billion (about $437.5 million) in a tailings reprocessing plant with a capacity of 10 million tonnes per annum, designed to recover metal from waste tailings—part of a broader ambition to ramp up production capacity. [18]
Expansion capex: Debari integrated smelter project (board-approved)
A board outcome document (June 2025) describes approval for a new 250 ktpa integrated smelter at Debari, along with mines and mills expansion, targeting completion in 36 months at an overall cost of roughly ₹12,000 crore. [19]
Bigger strategic narrative: multi-metal and critical minerals
Separately, management commentary reported in Indian business coverage indicates Hindustan Zinc has discussed plans to expand into new metals over time (examples cited include critical minerals), reflecting a broader repositioning beyond zinc/lead/silver. [20]
Parent-company overhang: Vedanta stake sales, pledges, and restructuring optics
No Hindustan Zinc stock story is complete without its gravitational parent: Vedanta.
Vedanta stake sale (June 2025): a reminder that supply can appear suddenly
Reuters reported that in June 2025, Vedanta sold a 1.6% stake in Hindustan Zinc via a block deal, and the stock fell sharply on that news at the time—classic “sudden supply” dynamics. [21]
Pledge/encumbrance tracking remains on investor radar
Market coverage in December noted promoter pledged shares for Hindustan Zinc decreased to 9.27% in the Sep’25 quarter (from 11.24% in the prior quarter). [22]
The dividend/holdco debate isn’t going away
Reuters also covered a July 2025 episode where Viceroy Research took a short position in Vedanta Resources’ debt and alleged value extraction; Vedanta rejected the claims. Reuters noted that over multiple years Vedanta and Hindustan Zinc declared substantial dividends (based on exchange filings), and that these debates can influence sentiment even when operations remain strong. [23]
Dividends: still part of the Hindustan Zinc “equity story”
Hindustan Zinc has a track record of dividend distributions, and investors routinely price the stock with dividends in mind.
The company declared an interim dividend of ₹10 per share in June 2025 (with the record date set as June 17, 2025, per reporting and dividend trackers). [24]
Outlook for Hindustan Zinc stock: what matters from here
After a move like this, the market stops asking “why did it rise?” and starts asking the more uncomfortable question: “What would make it fall?” Here are the key variables that now dominate the Hindustan Zinc setup into early 2026:
1) Silver direction and volatility
If silver stays elevated, earnings expectations can remain buoyant. But silver is famous for two things: being useful and being dramatic. A sharp silver pullback can compress multiples quickly, especially after a momentum run.
2) Volume recovery vs. guidance cuts
Even bullish analyst notes acknowledge volume softness and guidance trimming in refined/silver output expectations. The next leg of upside becomes easier if production stabilizes and costs remain controlled. [25]
3) Execution on growth capex without balance-sheet stress
Tailings reprocessing and expansion capex can strengthen the long-term story, but they also add execution risk (timelines, ramp-ups, regulatory clearances). [26]
4) Corporate/governance headline risk
Recent compliance and tax-related disclosures appear manageable in size, but they feed the headline cycle. In the short term, headlines can move a stock even when fundamentals haven’t changed. [27]
5) Parent-level stake activity
History shows that Vedanta stake sales can be a short-term overhang when they happen. [28]
Bottom line
On 24 December 2025, Hindustan Zinc stock is being pulled upward by a powerful narrative: silver at record highs + a miner with strong margins and operating leverage. [29]
But the rally is also forcing a new conversation. With the stock pressing fresh highs, the next phase depends less on “silver is up” and more on how long silver stays up, whether operational execution supports the elevated valuation, and how investors weigh bullish broker calls like Jefferies’ ₹660 against more conservative targets like YES Securities’ ₹551. [30]
References
1. m.economictimes.com, 2. www.marketscreener.com, 3. m.economictimes.com, 4. m.economictimes.com, 5. www.business-standard.com, 6. www.hzlindia.com, 7. www.hzlindia.com, 8. www.hzlindia.com, 9. www.hzlindia.com, 10. www.hzlindia.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.businesstoday.in, 13. www.business-standard.com, 14. bsmedia.business-standard.com, 15. bsmedia.business-standard.com, 16. bsmedia.business-standard.com, 17. bsmedia.business-standard.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.hzlindia.com, 20. economictimes.indiatimes.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. m.economictimes.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. m.economictimes.com, 25. bsmedia.business-standard.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.hzlindia.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. m.economictimes.com, 30. www.business-standard.com
