As of Friday, December 5, 2025, Home Depot, Inc. (The) (NYSE: HD) is back in the spotlight with fresh analyst moves, options activity and new ways for investors to access the stock. Here’s a full rundown of today’s key developments, plus what the latest forecasts say about HD stock heading into 2026.
Home Depot stock price today: where HD stands now
In Friday trading, Home Depot stock is changing hands around $354 per share, up roughly 0.9% from Thursday’s close near $351. That puts the company’s market capitalization in the low–$340 billion range, with a trailing price‑to‑earnings ratio just above 23x and a dividend yield around 2.6%. [1]
Over the last year, HD has been volatile:
- 52‑week range: roughly $322 to $439 per share [2]
- 30‑day return: about ‑8%
- 90‑day return: about ‑16%
- Five‑year total shareholder return: just under 50%, showing that long‑term investors are still meaningfully ahead despite this year’s pullback [3]
In other words, HD is not a beaten‑down deep value play, but it is trading materially below its 2024 highs and below its 52‑week peak, which matters for how analysts are framing upside from here.
Today’s biggest HD headlines (December 5, 2025)
1. Oppenheimer cuts its HD price target to $405
One of today’s most important datapoints for HD is an updated call from Oppenheimer. The firm:
- Maintained a “Hold” rating on Home Depot
- Trimmed its 12‑month price target from $420 to $405 [4]
At today’s price near $354, that new target implies around 14% upside before dividends. This is still positive in absolute terms, but the direction of travel—targets coming down—signals a more cautious stance on near‑term growth and margins compared with earlier in the year.
Recent target moves from other firms on HD include: [5]
- Stifel: Hold rating, target cut from $370 to $350 (Dec 1, 2025)
- Citigroup: Strong Buy, target trimmed from $422 to $407 (Nov 21, 2025)
- RBC Capital: Hold, target lowered from $401 to $376 (Nov 19, 2025)
- Evercore ISI: Buy, target reduced from $450 to $425 (Nov 19, 2025)
Collectively, this pattern says: analysts still like the business, but they’re nudging expectations lower for returns and growth in the next year.
2. UBS reiterates a Buy rating on “long‑term potential”
Balancing out the target cuts, UBS reaffirmed its Buy rating on Home Depot today, emphasizing the stock’s long‑term potential rather than short‑term noise. [6]
While details of the note are behind a paywall, the framing suggests that UBS continues to view HD as a long‑duration compounder: a dominant player in home improvement retail with strong brand power, a sticky Pro‑customer base and the ability to pass through modest price increases over time.
In the current environment—where several houses have moved to “Hold” with slightly lower targets—UBS stands out as a clearly bullish voice on the name.
3. Consensus: “Moderate Buy” with double‑digit upside
Looking across Wall Street:
- StockAnalysis data shows 24 analysts covering HD with an average rating of “Buy” and an average price target around $423, implying roughly 19% upside from current levels. [7]
- A fresh MarketBeat summary today categorizes the overall stance on HD as “Moderate Buy” by the broker community. [8]
- A note via MT Newswires this morning described HD’s average rating as “overweight” with a mean target around $405, reflecting a similar but slightly more conservative view. [9]
Taken together, the signal is consistent:
Street consensus still leans bullish on Home Depot, but not aggressively so. Upside expectations are in the low‑to‑high teens, not the 30–40% type of returns you might see in smaller, higher‑risk names.
4. Simply Wall St: Instacart partnership and a valuation tug‑of‑war
A widely read Simply Wall St piece published today zeroes in on two angles: HD’s new Instacart partnership in Canada and its valuation. [10]
Key points from that analysis:
- Instacart partnership (Canada):
Instacart and Home Depot Canada have rolled out nationwide same‑day delivery from the chain’s Canadian stores, expanding HD’s last‑mile capabilities and making it easier for contractors and DIYers to get bulky or time‑sensitive items quickly. [11] - Share price slump vs. long‑term record:
– 30‑day share price return: about ‑8.3%
– 90‑day share price return: about ‑16.2%
– Five‑year total shareholder return: almost 50% So the article frames 2025 as a sharp sentiment reset after several strong years. [12] - Narrative fair‑value estimate:
One prominent valuation “narrative” on the platform pegs HD’s fair value near $403 per share, roughly 13% above a recent close around $351, and labels the stock “underpriced” on that basis. [13] - But valuation risk by P/E:
The same piece notes that HD trades around 24x earnings, versus roughly 18x for the broader US specialty retail group and slightly above its own “fair” P/E level. That suggests the stock still commands a quality premium and is not a screaming bargain purely on earnings multiples. [14]
In short, Simply Wall St highlights a tension investors have to resolve:
Yes, long‑term returns and internal investments look attractive, but HD still carries a premium multiple relative to peers.
5. New Canadian Depositary Receipt (CDR) for Home Depot launched today
Another newsy development for global investors: Bank of Montreal (BMO) today launched new Canadian Depositary Receipts on several U.S. stocks, including The Home Depot, Inc. [15]
- The Home Depot CDR trades in Canada under ticker ZHD on Cboe Canada.
- CDRs are designed to let Canadian investors buy fractional, currency‑hedged exposure to U.S. names in Canadian dollars, using a structure that adjusts for exchange rates and share price moves. [16]
This doesn’t change Home Depot’s operations or fundamentals, but it slightly broadens the potential investor base and may encourage more retail participation from Canadian investors who prefer CAD‑denominated securities.
6. Options market shows bullish call activity
Earlier this week, a Barchart article flagged heavy volume in short‑dated, out‑of‑the‑money call options on HD, describing options traders as “bullish” on the stock. [17]
High call volume can mean several things—speculation on a near‑term bounce, hedging by short sellers, or covered‑call activity—but coupled with the largely positive analyst stance, it points to constructive sentiment rather than capitulation in derivatives markets.
7. Zacks: HD is one of today’s most‑watched tickers
On the retail‑research side, Zacks notes that Home Depot is currently receiving unusual attention from its users, prompting a fresh breakdown of what’s “in store” for the stock. [18]
Zacks typically focuses on:
- Earnings revisions
- Valuation vs. peers
- Momentum factors
The prominence of HD on their “most searched” list underscores that investors are actively re‑evaluating the name after its recent drawdown and Q3 numbers.
Q3 2025 earnings: steady sales, pressured margins
Home Depot’s latest fundamentals come from its third‑quarter fiscal 2025 results, released on November 18, 2025. [19]
Key figures from the quarter (three months ended November 2, 2025):
- Net sales: $41.35 billion, up 2.8% year‑over‑year
- Net earnings: $3.60 billion, down about 1.3% vs. last year
- Diluted EPS (GAAP): $3.62 vs. $3.67 a year ago (‑1.4%)
- Adjusted diluted EPS: $3.74 vs. $3.78 (‑1.1%)
- Operating margin: about 12.9%, down from 13.5%
- Adjusted operating margin: roughly 13.3%, slightly below last year’s level [20]
On the sales side, the company is still inching forward:
- Comparable sales: +0.2% in Q3, +0.3% year‑to‑date
- Average ticket: up ~2%, while transactions declined modestly, indicating fewer but larger baskets. [21]
Year‑to‑date (nine months):
- Net sales: $126.5 billion, up 5.6% vs. the prior year
- Net earnings: $11.6 billion, down 1.9%
- YTD diluted EPS: $11.65 vs. $11.90 (‑2.1%) [22]
From the balance‑sheet and cash‑flow side:
- Revenue over the last 12 months of about $166 billion
- Net income around $14.6 billion
- Free cash flow roughly $13.9 billion, with operating cash flow near $17.7 billion and capex around $3.7 billion [23]
Home Depot also carries a hefty but manageable debt load, with about $66 billion in total debt, net of around $1.7 billion in cash, leaving net debt near $64 billion and book equity close to $12 billion. [24]
Bottom line from Q3:
Sales are growing again, but margin pressure and acquisition‑related amortization are weighing on EPS, which is flat‑to‑down year over year despite higher revenue.
2025 outlook: guidance and growth expectations
In the same November update, Home Depot reaffirmed and updated its fiscal 2025 outlook. Management now expects: [25]
- Total sales growth: around 3% for the year
- Comparable sales:“slightly positive” for the 52‑week period
- Gross margin: roughly 33.2%
- Operating margin: about 12.6% (around 13% adjusted)
- Diluted EPS: to decline about 6% vs. fiscal 2024’s $14.91
- Adjusted diluted EPS: to decline about 5% vs. $15.24 in 2024
For a mature retailer, a mid‑single‑digit EPS decline is not catastrophic, but it doesn’t scream growth, and that reality is clearly feeding into the more cautious price‑target resets we’ve seen this week.
Dividends: income remains a core part of the HD story
Despite the short‑term earnings softness, HD remains a dividend heavyweight:
- Annual dividend: about $9.20 per share
- Forward dividend yield: around 2.6%–2.7% at current prices [26]
- Last ex‑dividend date:December 4, 2025
- Next payment date: scheduled for December 18, 2025 [27]
- Around 15 consecutive years of dividend growth and roughly four decades of uninterrupted payments [28]
Third‑party data puts HD’s payout ratio in the low‑60% range, meaning most—but not all—earnings are being paid out as dividends, leaving room for buybacks and reinvestment. [29]
Compared with peers:
- Home Depot’s dividend yield sits above Lowe’s (around 1.9%) and well above big e‑commerce names like Amazon (no dividend), though it’s not a high‑yield stock in absolute terms. [30]
For many investors, HD is still viewed as a steady, dividend‑growing compounder rather than a high‑growth or deep‑value play.
How expensive is HD after this year’s pullback?
On traditional valuation metrics, HD is not cheap, but cheaper than it was:
- Trailing P/E: ~23–24x
- Forward P/E: ~23x
- Price‑to‑sales: roughly 2.0–2.1x [31]
MarketScreener data suggests that on a forward basis, the stock trades at: [32]
- 2026E P/E: ~25x
- 2027E P/E: ~23x
- 2026E dividend yield: around 2.6%, rising modestly in 2027
Simply Wall St’s article today captures the nuance: one narrative sees HD about 13% undervalued on a discounted cash flow style fair‑value estimate, but on a pure P/E basis the stock is richer than the broader specialty retail group and a bit above its own “fair” multiple. [33]
So the valuation call depends heavily on your assumptions:
- If you believe in long‑term mid‑single‑digit revenue growth, modest margin expansion and ongoing buybacks, HD can look reasonably valued or slightly cheap.
- If you’re skeptical about growth beyond inflation and see margins staying flat or drifting down, the current price can feel full for a big‑box retailer facing a sluggish housing market.
Analyst forecasts: what the Street expects into 2026
Consensus estimates compiled by StockAnalysis paint a picture of slow but positive growth over the next few years: [34]
- Revenue this fiscal year (FY 2025): about $169.5 billion, up roughly 6% from FY 2024
- Revenue next year (FY 2026): around $177.2 billion, implying ~4.5% growth
- EPS this year: about $14.95, barely above FY 2024’s $14.91
- EPS next year: around $15.80, implying ~5.7% EPS growth
Over a five‑year horizon, consensus points to:
- Revenue growth: roughly 4–5% annually
- EPS growth: around 6–7% annually [35]
With the average price target near $423 and some price‑target dispersion—from mid‑$350s on the cautious side to the mid‑$420s and above from more bullish houses—the market is basically saying:
If Home Depot executes in line with expectations, investors can plausibly earn high‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit annual returns, combining mid‑single‑digit EPS growth, a 2–3% dividend yield and modest multiple stability or expansion.
Key drivers and risks to watch
Macro and housing cycle
Home Depot’s fortunes are tightly linked to:
- Housing turnover (existing‑home sales)
- Big‑ticket remodeling demand
- Consumer confidence and real incomes
The Q3 numbers already show that growth is coming more from price and Pro customers than from a broad‑based volume boom, and management guidance for only slightly positive comps acknowledges that the macro environment is still tough. [36]
Integration of SRS and pending GMS deal
Simply Wall St’s narrative emphasizes Home Depot’s acquisition strategy, especially SRS and a pending acquisition of GMS, as key to expanding its Pro ecosystem and gaining share in complex, higher‑ticket projects. [37]
If integration goes smoothly and synergies show up in margins and sales growth, the “quality growth” story becomes more compelling. If not, investors could focus more on leverage and acquisition risk.
Digital, fulfillment and partnerships
The Instacart Canada partnership, along with HD’s investments in supply‑chain technology and digital tools, is part of a broader push to make the business more convenient and resilient, whether the customer is a professional or a homeowner. [38]
Success here should:
- Support Pro loyalty
- Increase average ticket sizes
- Protect margins via efficiency gains
Valuation and margin pressure
As Simply Wall St notes, trading at roughly 24x earnings vs. ~18x for peers leaves HD with valuation risk if margins disappoint or growth slows. [39]
Recent analyst target cuts—from Oppenheimer, Stifel, RBC and others—are a reminder that even great businesses can deliver lukewarm returns if bought at too high a price. [40]
How today’s news may shape the HD narrative
Putting all of today’s developments together:
- Short term:
- Medium term (2026–2027):
- Consensus sees modest, steady growth, stable to slowly improving margins and continued dividend growth, which could deliver respectable total returns if the multiple holds. [43]
- The key swing factors are housing activity, integration of Pro‑oriented acquisitions and execution on digital and supply‑chain initiatives.
- Valuation backdrop:
- After a notable drawdown in 2025, HD is cheaper than it was, but still not a classic value stock. Investors are being asked to pay a premium multiple for a combination of resilience, scale, and dividend reliability, not for hyper‑growth. [44]
Final thoughts (and an important disclaimer)
Home Depot remains one of the most closely watched blue‑chip stocks in the U.S., and today’s wave of news—target cuts, bullish ratings, options activity, and new instruments for Canadian investors—doesn’t radically change the story. It does, however, sharpen it:
- Bulls see a high‑quality operator with durable cash flows, a strong dividend, strategic acquisitions and digital investments that can keep compounding value.
- Bears and skeptics worry that at ~24x earnings, with EPS growth in the mid‑single digits and margins under gentle pressure, HD may deliver only average returns from current levels if anything goes wrong.
Either way, today’s developments reinforce that HD is a “show‑me” stock going into 2026: the market is willing to reward it—but only if the company proves that recent investments and acquisitions translate into tangible growth and better margins.
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, tax or legal advice. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
References
1. www.digrin.com, 2. www.digrin.com, 3. simplywall.st, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. stockanalysis.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. stockanalysis.com, 8. www.marketbeat.com, 9. www.perplexity.ai, 10. simplywall.st, 11. www.marketscreener.com, 12. simplywall.st, 13. simplywall.st, 14. simplywall.st, 15. newsroom.bmo.com, 16. newsroom.bmo.com, 17. www.barchart.com, 18. www.zacks.com, 19. corporate.homedepot.com, 20. ir.homedepot.com, 21. ir.homedepot.com, 22. ir.homedepot.com, 23. stockanalysis.com, 24. stockanalysis.com, 25. corporate.homedepot.com, 26. stockanalysis.com, 27. stockanalysis.com, 28. stockanalysis.com, 29. stockanalysis.com, 30. ycharts.com, 31. stockanalysis.com, 32. www.marketscreener.com, 33. simplywall.st, 34. stockanalysis.com, 35. stockanalysis.com, 36. ir.homedepot.com, 37. simplywall.st, 38. simplywall.st, 39. simplywall.st, 40. stockanalysis.com, 41. www.investing.com, 42. newsroom.bmo.com, 43. stockanalysis.com, 44. simplywall.st
