Published: December 14, 2025
Home Depot (NYSE: HD) heads into mid-December with investors weighing a cautious management outlook against a growing list of long-term tailwinds—especially if U.S. housing turnover stabilizes in 2026. Shares last closed at $359.65 (Friday, Dec. 12) after a choppy stretch that included Home Depot’s first investor/analyst conference in more than two years, updates to guidance, and a fresh round of sell-side commentary on valuation and the pace of a home-improvement recovery. [1]
Below is a full recap of today’s Home Depot stock setup (as of Dec. 14, 2025)—including the most relevant current news, company forecasts, and widely circulated market analyses that investors are using to frame the next 6–12 months.
Key takeaways for Home Depot stock this week
- Stock price snapshot: HD last closed at $359.65, with a 52-week range of $323.77 to $426.75.
- Management’s 2026 tone: Home Depot outlined a preliminary fiscal 2026 view calling for flat to +2% comparable sales and +2.5% to +4.5% total sales, with adjusted EPS flat to +4%—guidance that some coverage described as below consensus expectations. [2]
- What could change the narrative: Management also presented a “market recovery case” that implies meaningfully faster growth if housing activity improves, alongside ongoing investment in the Pro ecosystem, supply chain capabilities, and new store/branch expansion. [3]
Home Depot stock price today: where HD stands on Dec. 14, 2025
Because Dec. 14 falls on a weekend, the most recent official close is from Friday, Dec. 12, when Home Depot finished at $359.65. [4]
Importantly, HD’s price action into the weekend suggests investors have been actively repricing the stock after early-week volatility:
- Dec. 9 close: $345.27
- Dec. 10 close: $351.13
- Dec. 11 close: $357.46
- Dec. 12 close: $359.65 [5]
That sequence matters because it shows HD regained ground after the investor day headline numbers initially weighed on sentiment earlier in the week. [6]
The biggest current catalyst: Home Depot’s 2025 Investor & Analyst Conference
1) Preliminary fiscal 2026 outlook (base case)
Home Depot’s CFO Richard McPhail framed the company’s preliminary 2026 outlook around an environment where housing-related pressures remain a drag and the industry outcome could range from slightly down to slightly up. [7]
Management’s key preliminary ranges (as described at the conference) were:
- Comparable sales:flat to +2%
- Total sales:~+2.5% to +4.5% (including contributions from acquisitions and growth initiatives)
- Adjusted operating margin:~13% (in the 2% comp scenario described)
- Adjusted EPS growth:~+4% (in the 2% comp scenario described) [8]
Reuters reported the initial market read-through as more cautious than many expected, noting Home Depot’s 2026 same-store sales and profit growth outlook came in below analyst consensus estimates cited in the same coverage. [9]
2) “Market recovery case” (what the upside scenario assumes)
Management also discussed a recovery framework tied to improving housing momentum and pent-up demand, with a target range that implies faster growth than the preliminary 2026 view:
- Target comp growth:4% to 5%
- Target total sales growth:5% to 6%, aided by about 100 bps annually from new stores, new branches, and “tuck-in” acquisitions (as described in the materials) [10]
This recovery case isn’t a promise—investors should read it as a sensitivity: if housing turnover and larger remodel activity improves, Home Depot believes it can drive a materially better model. [11]
Why Home Depot says housing is still the gating factor
The company’s investor-day commentary was unusually direct about the “mortgage lock-in” dynamic and affordability constraints that have chilled home turnover since 2023:
- McPhail cited that ~80% of outstanding mortgages carry rates below the current 30-year rate referenced (about 6.3%), and that homeowners therefore face a financial disincentive to move—keeping turnover at historically low levels. [12]
- He also linked affordability pressure to home-price trends flattening nationally and declining in many markets, which can weigh on confidence and willingness to spend on large projects. [13]
For HD stock, the implication is straightforward: even excellent execution can be capped if the macro backdrop suppresses big-ticket discretionary spending and reduces the “buy/sell/move” events that typically kick off remodel cycles. [14]
Fiscal 2025 guidance: reaffirmed ranges investors are anchoring to
At the same conference, Home Depot reiterated its fiscal 2025 expectations, including:
- Total sales growth: ~+3%
- Comparable sales:slightly positive vs. fiscal 2024
- Operating margin: ~12.6%; adjusted operating margin ~13%
- Net interest expense: ~$2.3 billion
- Diluted EPS: down ~6%; adjusted diluted EPS down ~5% (comparing the 52 weeks of fiscal 2025 to the 53 weeks of fiscal 2024) [15]
Those same headline guideposts also appeared alongside Home Depot’s third-quarter update in November, reinforcing that management is staying cautious until it sees a clearer catalyst in housing activity. [16]
Latest earnings: what Home Depot reported in fiscal Q3 2025
In its third quarter of fiscal 2025 update (released Nov. 18), Home Depot reported:
- Sales:$41.4 billion, up 2.8% year over year
- Comparable sales:+0.2% overall; +0.1% in the U.S.
- The company said total sales included about $900 million from the GMS acquisition, representing roughly eight weeks of sales contribution during the quarter. [17]
On the same release, Home Depot updated fiscal 2025 guidance (now reaffirmed at the investor conference), and leadership commentary pointed to category impacts from a lack of storms, alongside consumer uncertainty and ongoing housing pressure. [18]
Strategy investors are watching: Pro ecosystem, acquisitions, AI tools, and new growth channels
1) GMS acquisition and the bigger Pro push
Home Depot completed its acquisition of GMS Inc. through its SRS Distribution subsidiary for an enterprise value of approximately $5.5 billion (including net debt), positioning it as another lever to deepen penetration with professional customers across more categories. [19]
The company has repeatedly framed the SRS + GMS combination as a way to better serve Pros “across their entire project,” including distribution and fulfillment capabilities. [20]
2) Expansion plans: stores and branches
One of the more concrete “long-term execution” signals from the investor conference materials: the company said it has built 37 new stores in the past three years, intends to complete an 80-store program in 2027, and expects to continue building 15 to 20 stores per year thereafter. [21]
The same materials described ongoing branch growth, noting SRS—with the addition of GMS—is expected to support organic expansion through the addition of 40 to 50 branches per year. [22]
3) AI for Pros: Blueprint Takeoffs
Home Depot also launched an AI-powered “Blueprint Takeoffs” tool aimed at professional renovators, remodelers, and builders. The company said the tool can produce a full material list and quote within days, compared with processes that “used to take weeks,” and is designed to simplify procurement by allowing Pros to source through a single supplier. [23]
4) Creator commerce: a new portal to monetize home-improvement content
On Dec. 10, Home Depot announced a new Creator Portal, positioning it as a centralized hub for creators to find campaigns, tools, and support to build home-improvement content and drive product recommendations. The company said creators can earn commissions through shoppable links, access performance tracking tools, and that thousands of creators are already enrolled. [24]
While this isn’t likely to move near-term comps on its own, investors may view it as part of a broader effort to strengthen demand capture earlier in the customer journey—especially for DIY projects and décor content discovery. [25]
Dividend update: what income-focused investors should know
Home Depot declared a quarterly cash dividend of $2.30 per share, payable Dec. 18, 2025, to shareholders of record as of Dec. 4, 2025—noting this was the company’s 155th consecutive quarter paying a cash dividend. [26]
For investors buying HD after the record date, the key point is timing: the upcoming payment is tied to ownership as of the prior record date. [27]
Analyst forecasts and valuation narratives circulating right now
Street price targets (consensus ranges vary by source)
Data aggregators tracking Wall Street coverage show generally positive—but mixed—expectations for HD over the next 12 months:
- One widely cited consensus set places the average price target around $421 with a “Buy” consensus and a $350–$497 target range. [28]
- Another tracker shows a “Moderate Buy” consensus with an average target near $401, with a $320–$470 range (methodology differences can explain the spread). [29]
The valuation debate: “quality compounder” vs. “premium multiple in a slow market”
A prominent Nasdaq/Zacks-style analysis circulating in early December argues that even after the pullback, HD’s valuation still looks rich relative to peers on some forward measures, pointing to soft traffic trends, margin pressure, and a housing slowdown that has yet to meaningfully turn. [30]
This is essentially the tug-of-war in HD stock today:
- Bull case: dominant scale, Pro growth, supply chain advantages, and operating leverage when housing normalizes
- Bear case: the recovery takes longer, big-ticket projects remain muted, and valuation offers limited cushion if growth disappoints
Both frames are now anchored to management’s own message: 2026 could remain a grind unless housing activity and turnover reaccelerate. [31]
Other current headlines investors are seeing (and how they may matter for the stock)
Retail theft ring case highlights shrink as an evergreen retail risk
Recent reporting described a large retail theft ring that targeted numerous Home Depot locations, with authorities alleging roughly $2.2 million in stolen merchandise over more than a year. While this is not an earnings catalyst by itself, it reinforces a structural risk investors often track across big-box retail: shrink and organized retail crime. [32]
“Investor alert” law-firm releases: noise, but part of the news cycle
Several law firms also issued “investor alert” announcements in December stating they were investigating potential claims on behalf of Home Depot investors. These notices are common after large post-earnings moves and do not, on their own, confirm wrongdoing—but they do add to the headline flow around the stock. [33]
What could move Home Depot stock next
Here are the near-term catalysts HD investors are watching as of Dec. 14, 2025:
- More detail on 2026 guidance on the Q4 earnings call (February): management explicitly pointed to further detail coming on that call. [34]
- Dividend payment on Dec. 18: a sentiment/support factor for income investors, though not a fundamental growth catalyst. [35]
- Housing indicators: mortgage rates, affordability, turnover, and big-ticket project demand—because management continues to describe housing as the main gating variable for a faster recovery. [36]
- Integration execution (SRS + GMS): whether the Pro ecosystem investments translate into share gains even in a slow market. [37]
Bottom line: the HD stock story is still “macro-constrained, execution-driven”
As of Dec. 14, 2025, Home Depot stock is trading in a market that still wants proof of a durable home-improvement rebound. Management’s tone suggests the company is preparing investors for a measured 2026, even while laying out a credible path to a stronger “recovery case” if housing activity inflects. [38]
For now, HD remains a stock where the next leg higher likely depends on housing turnover and large-project demand, while the downside risk case centers on a prolonged slow cycle plus valuation sensitivity. [39]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. ir.homedepot.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. stockanalysis.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. ir.homedepot.com, 8. ir.homedepot.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. ir.homedepot.com, 11. ir.homedepot.com, 12. ir.homedepot.com, 13. ir.homedepot.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. ir.homedepot.com, 16. corporate.homedepot.com, 17. corporate.homedepot.com, 18. corporate.homedepot.com, 19. ir.homedepot.com, 20. ir.homedepot.com, 21. ir.homedepot.com, 22. ir.homedepot.com, 23. ir.homedepot.com, 24. ir.homedepot.com, 25. ir.homedepot.com, 26. ir.homedepot.com, 27. ir.homedepot.com, 28. stockanalysis.com, 29. www.marketbeat.com, 30. www.nasdaq.com, 31. ir.homedepot.com, 32. people.com, 33. www.globenewswire.com, 34. ir.homedepot.com, 35. ir.homedepot.com, 36. ir.homedepot.com, 37. ir.homedepot.com, 38. ir.homedepot.com, 39. ir.homedepot.com
