Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE: HD) ended Monday’s session modestly higher, then stayed essentially flat in after-hours trading—an important signal heading into a data-heavy Tuesday morning that could move interest rates, housing sentiment, and consumer spending expectations (all major swing factors for home-improvement retailers).
Below is a detailed recap of where Home Depot stock finished after the bell on Dec. 22, 2025, what headlines and analyst notes drove the day’s narrative, and the key catalysts to watch before the opening bell on Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2025.
Home Depot stock price after the bell: close and after-hours action
Regular-session close (Mon., Dec. 22, 2025): Home Depot stock closed at $346.39, up about 0.40% on the day. StockAnalysis
Intraday range: Shares traded roughly between $343.70 and $347.90, with volume around 3.44 million shares. StockAnalysis
Market cap snapshot: About $344B based on Monday pricing.
After-hours (Mon. evening): Early after-hours quotes showed HD ticking up on light volume—around $346.84 at roughly 5:11 p.m. ET (about +0.13% after hours at that moment). MarketWatch
Later in the evening, the stock was still hugging the close—around $346.45 at roughly 7:01 p.m. ET. StockAnalysis
The takeaway: no meaningful after-hours repricing—suggesting investors did not react to any late-breaking company-specific headline after the closing bell.
Why Home Depot stock matters this week: macro pressure meets “Pro” strategy
For much of 2025, Home Depot’s day-to-day trading has been tethered to two big forces:
- Rates and housing turnover (mortgage costs, existing-home sales, renovation appetite)
- Whether “Pro” demand can offset softer DIY discretionary spending
That mix showed up again in today’s analysis cycle. A Zacks note (published Monday morning) framed Home Depot’s recent results as a tug-of-war: Pro customers are helping stabilize demand, but housing turnover remains near multi-decade lows and big-ticket project momentum is still uneven. Nasdaq
Today’s Home Depot news, forecasts, and analysis (Dec. 22, 2025)
1) Wolfe Research nudges its target higher (incremental, but notable)
A key headline crossing Monday: Wolfe adjusted its price target on Home Depot to $415 from $414 and maintained an Outperform rating (timestamped mid-day). MarketScreener
A one-dollar bump isn’t a thesis change, but it matters because it reinforces the idea that—despite a choppy housing backdrop—some analysts still see Home Depot as a high-quality operator positioned to benefit when the cycle turns.
2) “HD vs. Lowe’s” debate resurfaces: valuation and 2026 expectations
A widely circulated Monday analysis compared Home Depot with Lowe’s and argued that valuation is doing more of the talking than fundamentals right now. The piece highlighted:
- Home Depot down about 11% year to date (vs. Lowe’s down far less)
- A forward P/E gap (HD higher than LOW)
- The view that Home Depot’s premium multiple can cap near-term upside until growth re-accelerates 24/7 Wall St.
Whether you agree or not, it captures the market’s current framing: Home Depot needs either (a) clearer housing momentum or (b) a convincing margin/earnings catalyst to justify sustained multiple expansion.
3) Winter Storage Event: product push is in focus as consumers “reset” after the holidays
On the company/merchandising side, a supplier press release highlighted Home Depot’s annual Winter Storage Event, positioning new storage products for customers looking to organize after the holidays. The release called out new HDX storage items and additional color options for select totes—small in the context of Home Depot’s total revenue, but relevant to seasonal traffic drivers and category promotion in late December. PR Newswire
4) The “Pro” narrative gets fresh numbers (ticket size, big-ticket transactions, acquisitions)
A Monday-morning Zacks write-up (carried by Nasdaq) provided several concrete datapoints investors continue to watch:
- Average ticket up ~1.8% in the referenced quarter
- Big-ticket (>$1,000) comp transactions up ~2.3% year over year
- A note that an acquisition (GMS) contributed about $900M in quarterly sales, while SRS Distribution comps were described as flat amid broader roofing-market weakness Nasdaq
For investors, this reinforces the market’s current “scorecard” for HD:
- Is Pro holding up?
- Are bigger projects returning?
- Are acquisitions adding durable growth, or just masking a sluggish core environment?
5) A “neutral until the inflection” view remains popular
A TipRanks analysis circulating into Monday argued that Home Depot is structurally strong but the timing of the housing/project rebound is the key uncertainty, advocating patience until the inflection becomes clearer. It referenced an estimated fair value near the mid-$300s and pointed to a Street-wide Moderate Buy posture with a consensus target around the low-$400s. TipRanks
The most important “forecast” investors are anchoring to: Home Depot’s official 2026 outlook
While daily notes and target tweaks move sentiment, Home Depot’s own guidance is still the foundation.
At its December investor event, Home Depot reaffirmed fiscal 2025 guidance including:
- Total sales growth ~3%
- Comparable sales slightly positive (on a comparable 52-week basis)
- Adjusted EPS expected to decline ~5% (and diluted EPS down ~6%) Home Depot Investor Relations
It also issued a preliminary fiscal 2026 outlook calling for:
- Home improvement market roughly -1% to +1%
- Comparable sales ~flat to +2%
- Total sales growth ~2.5% to 4.5%
- Adjusted EPS ~flat to +4% Home Depot Investor Relations
And it laid out a more optimistic Market Recovery Case tied to stronger housing activity and bigger-project spending:
- Total sales growth ~5% to 6%
- Comparable sales growth ~4% to 5%
- EPS growth mid- to high-single digits Home Depot Investor Relations
That guidance structure is why Tuesday’s economic reports matter: anything that shifts expectations about housing momentum, consumer confidence, and inflation/rates can change how investors handicap which “case” becomes reality in 2026.
Analyst price targets: what the Street is implying right now
Depending on the data source and analyst set, consensus targets cluster in a similar zone—generally around $400+, implying mid-teens upside from Monday’s close:
- MarketBeat: average target $402.07 (about 16% upside) and a Moderate Buy consensus. MarketBeat
- MarketScreener: average target $399.33 and consensus “Outperform” (methodologies vary). MarketScreener
- StockAnalysis: average target $421.33 with a “Buy” consensus (different analyst pool). StockAnalysis
The practical interpretation isn’t that one number is “right.” It’s that most published sell-side frameworks still assume a recovery path—but investors remain sensitive to when that path shows up in comparable sales and earnings.
What to know before the stock market opens Tuesday (Dec. 23, 2025)
Tuesday is unusually loaded with market-moving U.S. data—much of it scheduled before the opening bell. Here’s the short list that matters most for Home Depot (HD):
1) 8:30 a.m. ET: GDP, durable goods, housing, and inflation data cluster
According to an Investing.com rundown of Tuesday’s calendar, 8:30 a.m. ET includes multiple major releases, such as:
- GDP (Q3) (expected 3.2% vs prior 3.8%)
- Durable goods orders (Nov) (expected 0.2% vs 0.5%)
- Building permits (Nov) (expected 1.340M vs 1.330M)
- Core PCE / PCE inflation measures (Fed-watched inflation gauges)
- Housing starts (Nov) (expected 1.320M vs 1.307M)
- Personal spending / income (Nov) Investing
Why HD investors should care:
- Softer inflation readings can push yields lower → potentially supportive for housing affordability and renovation demand.
- Hotter inflation or stronger growth can lift yields → often a headwind for housing turnover and big-ticket financed projects.
- Building permits/housing starts help frame the medium-term pipeline for projects that can pull through Home Depot’s Pro ecosystem.
2) 10:00 a.m. ET: Consumer confidence
The same calendar highlights Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Dec.) at 10:00 a.m. ET (expected 91.7 vs 88.7 prior). Investing
Why it matters: Home Depot is a discretionary-plus-necessity retailer—maintenance never fully stops, but bigger remodels often depend on confidence (and financing comfort).
3) 3:00 p.m. ET: New home sales
New home sales (Nov.) are listed for 3:00 p.m. ET. Investing
Why it matters: While existing-home turnover is often the bigger driver for home-improvement “reset” projects, new home sales feed longer-cycle demand (furnishing, upgrades, landscaping, repairs).
4) Holiday liquidity: market hours tighten midweek
This is also a holiday-shortened week for U.S. markets:
- Early close on Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025 at 1:00 p.m. ET
- Closed Thursday, Dec. 25 (Christmas Day) NYSE
Lower liquidity can amplify moves in either direction—especially if data surprises hit at 8:30 a.m. ET.
One more calendar detail investors sometimes miss: Home Depot store hours
Separately, Home Depot published its 2025 holiday store hours, including:
- Christmas Eve (Wed., Dec. 24): open regular hours, early close at 5 p.m.
- Christmas Day: closed The Home Depot
Store hours don’t directly move the stock overnight, but they are part of the broader context for late-December traffic patterns.
Bottom line for Tuesday: the “rates + housing + confidence” trio is back in control
Home Depot stock finished Dec. 22 with no dramatic after-hours move, which typically means the next real catalyst is external—especially on a morning stacked with macro data.
Going into Tuesday’s open, the most useful framework is simple:
- If Tuesday’s inflation/growth data help push yields down, HD often benefits on improved housing/affordability expectations.
- If data come in “too hot” and yields rise, HD can face renewed skepticism about when big-ticket projects truly recover—the same timing debate that dominated much of 2025.
Either way, HD remains a stock where the market is constantly toggling between:
- confidence in Home Depot’s long-term moat and Pro strategy, and
- impatience for a clearer housing-driven inflection.
