New York, March 1, 2026, 15:20 EST — The session wrapped up with markets closed.
- Home Depot ended Friday’s session at $380.72, gaining 1.5% with a busy week of data on deck.
- Eyes are on U.S. rates and housing turnover—signals that can move the needle for major home projects.
- Lowe’s shares barely budged by Friday’s close, wrapping up a seesaw week for names tied to housing.
Home Depot shares finished Friday at $380.72, up 1.5%. Heading into Monday, investors are still linking the retailer’s prospects with interest rates and housing turnover.
The reason this is hitting now comes down to basic math: with people moving less, demand for major renovations dries up. Home Depot CFO Richard McPhail, citing what he’s described as a “frozen housing environment” since 2023, and Lowe’s CEO Marvin Ellison, who talks about the “persistent lock-in effect,” both see sluggish home turnover and slow starts weighing on the market. In January, existing home sales slumped to their lowest point in over two years, while the average 30-year mortgage rate, even after easing slightly, held at 6.09% last week, according to Reuters. Reuters
Hotter-than-expected inflation data has rate-cut watchers recalibrating. January’s Producer Price Index (PPI) jumped 0.5%, suggesting businesses are charging more, and bolstering the view that the Federal Reserve will likely hold off on rate cuts until its June 16-17 gathering. “Some upside” for consumer prices may be next, as companies push through higher service costs, said Ben Ayers, senior economist at Nationwide. Reuters
Lowe’s closed out Friday at $264.57, barely budging with a 0.07% gain. The two home-improvement giants split paths after the week’s earlier swings.
Bigger market moves weren’t working in investors’ favor. The S&P 500 slipped 0.43% on Friday, while the Dow dropped 1.05%, with traders caught between AI buzz and geopolitics. Over in bonds, the 10-year Treasury yield closed near 3.96%, according to Reuters. “Semiconductors had priced in a lot of good news,” said Talley Leger, chief market strategist at The Wealth Consulting Group. “Now it’s time for a breather.” Reuters
This week brings a quick shift in the calendar, with the February U.S. jobs report dropping Friday, March 6. Economists surveyed by Reuters are penciling in a 60,000 payroll increase, following January’s 130,000 jump. Kristina Hooper, chief market strategist at Man Group, called the outlook “very little definitive” when it comes to which sectors AI will disrupt and who stands to benefit, a setup that leaves markets exposed to sharp rotations. Reuters
Home Depot drew its line in the sand, at least for now. On Feb. 24, the company reported fourth-quarter sales of $38.2 billion, a 3.8% decline. Comparable sales inched up 0.4%. The board bumped up the quarterly dividend by 1.3%, now handing out $2.33 per share on March 26 to shareholders on record as of March 12. Looking ahead, Home Depot is projecting comparable sales growth for fiscal 2026 in a range from flat to up 2%. CEO Ted Decker pointed to “relatively stable” core demand, once storm impacts are stripped out. The Home Depot
On the earnings front, Reuters noted the retailer has put more focus on professional clients to make up for flagging DIY remodel demand, with executives indicating they’re not looking at more price hikes heading into spring. David Wagner, equity chief and portfolio manager at Aptus Capital Advisors, said the company seems to have “set the appropriate initial bar” for expectations following a bumpy start this year. Reuters
Still, things could shift unfavorably. A stronger jobs report or persistent inflation has the potential to lift yields again, holding mortgage rates up—and, in turn, pushing out the kinds of discretionary spending Home Depot relies on to jump-start sales growth.
Home Depot often serves as a bellwether for spring, especially as lawn, garden, and outdoor spending usually ramps up. When homeowners hesitate or hold off, the slowdown usually hits big renovation projects first—smaller fixes don’t flinch as quickly.
Friday brings the March 6 jobs report—rates and mortgage costs still linger behind the scenes. Home Depot has its eye on March 12, when shareholders of record for the increased dividend are set.
