Published: December 12, 2025 (12.12.2025)
As of the latest available quote, The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE: HD) traded around $357.46, up about 1.8% versus the prior close.
Home Depot stock has been in focus this week after the company delivered a fresh outlook at its Investor and Analyst Conference—reaffirming near-term guidance while setting a cautious baseline for 2026 and laying out a more optimistic “market recovery” scenario. [1]
Key takeaways for investors
- Fiscal 2025 guidance reaffirmed: Home Depot continues to expect ~3% total sales growth and slightly positive comparable sales (for the comparable 52-week period), while EPS is still expected to decline year over year. [2]
- Fiscal 2026 preliminary outlook set: The company’s baseline calls for a flat-to-modest home improvement market and 0% to 2% comps, with EPS growth roughly flat to +4%—below some Street expectations. [3]
- Analysts recalibrated targets: Several firms trimmed price targets after the conference while largely maintaining their broader ratings (a sign of “reset expectations” rather than “broken story”). [4]
- Macro still matters most: Management and analysts continue to tie the next leg of upside to housing turnover and bigger-ticket project demand—areas pressured by borrowing costs and affordability. [5]
What’s moving Home Depot stock on December 12, 2025?
There wasn’t a single “new earnings headline” today—rather, the stock is still digesting a dense week of guidance, analyst updates, and macro crosscurrents.
One reason HD tends to show up in daily market commentary: it’s price-weighted in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. On Thursday’s rally, MarketWatch reported that Home Depot and Visa together contributed roughly one-third of the Dow’s rise at one point during the session, highlighting how HD’s day-to-day moves can look amplified in index narratives. [6]
At the center of this week’s story is Home Depot’s updated framework for fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2026, unveiled at its investor event. [7]
The headline news: Home Depot sets a cautious fiscal 2026 baseline
Fiscal 2025: reaffirmed guidance (the “stay-the-course” message)
Home Depot reaffirmed fiscal 2025 guidance that includes:
- ~3% total sales growth
- Comparable sales slightly positive (for the comparable 52-week period)
- ~12 new stores
- Gross margin ~33.2%
- Operating margin ~12.6% (adjusted ~13.0%)
- Diluted EPS expected to decline ~6% (adjusted diluted EPS decline ~5%) [8]
For investors, the fiscal 2025 reaffirmation matters because it signals the company believes its near-term operating plan is intact—even as the market waits for a housing-led demand reacceleration.
Fiscal 2026: preliminary outlook (the “reset expectations” message)
For fiscal 2026, Home Depot provided a preliminary outlook that assumes:
- Home improvement market around -1% to +1%
- Comparable sales: flat to +2%
- Total sales growth: ~2.5% to 4.5%
- Operating margin: ~12.4% to 12.6% (adjusted ~12.8% to 13.0%)
- Diluted EPS: flat to +4% (adjusted diluted EPS: flat to +4%) [9]
Reuters characterized the outlook as below estimates in key places—particularly compared with consensus expectations for comps and adjusted EPS growth—and noted the company is still seeing weaker demand in DIY and larger-ticket projects. [10]
The bull-case framework: “Market Recovery Case” (and what it implies)
Alongside the baseline, Home Depot also offered a “Market Recovery Case” that assumes a more constructive housing backdrop. In that scenario, Home Depot laid out:
- Total sales growth ~5% to 6%
- Comparable sales growth ~4% to 5%
- Operating profit growth faster than sales
- EPS growth mid-to-high single digits [11]
This two-track framework is important for HD stock: management is effectively telling investors that the company can perform reasonably in a soft market, but the stronger upside requires housing momentum and larger projects returning.
The Wall Street Journal similarly emphasized that the stronger scenario is tied to improved housing activity, while the base outlook remains cautious. [12]
Why the housing cycle remains the key driver for HD stock
Home Depot is a category leader, but it doesn’t control the biggest swing factor: homeowner mobility and renovation intensity.
Reuters noted the company is contending with higher borrowing costs, housing demand volatility, high home prices, and that the anticipated pickup from easing rates hadn’t materially arrived at the time of its earlier quarterly updates. [13]
That’s why this week’s 2026 framing landed the way it did: it’s less about “execution risk” and more about timing risk—how long the housing market stays sluggish and whether big-ticket discretionary projects re-accelerate.
Barron’s framed the theme bluntly: a meaningful recovery in home improvement spending may still be far off, even if pent-up demand is building. [14]
Wall Street forecasts: price targets, ratings, and what changed this week
Following the investor-day outlook, multiple analysts adjusted their numbers—mostly down modestly—to reflect a slower recovery path.
Notable recent target/rating updates referenced in current coverage
- Wells Fargo: lowered price target to $395 (from $400) and maintained an Underweight rating, citing uncertainty around recovery timing and a flatter 2026 setup. [15]
- RBC Capital Markets: lowered price target to $366 (from $376), keeping a Sector Perform stance and stressing the recovery could take longer than hoped. [16]
- UBS: lowered target to $430 (from $445) while maintaining a Buy rating, framing the updated company framework as a more attainable baseline that can set up upside if recovery improves. [17]
- Piper Sandler: reduced target to $441 (from $450) while keeping an Overweight rating after the investor conference. [18]
What the “consensus” looks like
A Nasdaq write-up citing compiled analyst forecasts pegged the average one-year price target near ~$409 (with a wide range from the low $300s to the high $400s). [19]
Other market data compilations similarly place the consensus target in the low $400s, illustrating that—even after cautious 2026 guidance—many analysts still model meaningful upside if the macro environment cooperates. [20]
What investors should infer: this week’s analyst activity reads more like “recalibration” than “capitulation.” Bears focus on timing and valuation; bulls focus on market share gains and operating leverage when the cycle turns.
Strategy and long-term positioning: “Win the Pro” and scale the addressable market
At its investor event, Home Depot emphasized a strategy built around:
- strengthening core execution and culture
- delivering a frictionless interconnected experience
- winning the Pro customer [21]
Management also highlighted a large total addressable market—about $1.1 trillion—as it seeks to grow share over time. [22]
M&A and pro distribution: SRS and GMS
Home Depot’s push into professional distribution has been reinforced through acquisitions:
- SRS Distribution acquisition completed (2024): Home Depot completed the acquisition of SRS for an enterprise value of about $18.25 billion, expanding its specialty trade distribution footprint. [23]
- GMS acquisition completed (2025): Home Depot announced it completed the acquisition of GMS through SRS for a total enterprise value (including net debt) of about $5.5 billion, integrating a major specialty building products distributor (drywall, ceilings, steel framing, etc.). [24]
This matters for HD stock because the pro customer tends to be higher frequency, more project-driven, and more reliant on service levels (delivery, jobsite fulfillment, credit, and reliability)—areas where scale can translate into share gains.
Dividend, valuation, and shareholder-return context
Home Depot remains widely owned partly because it has a long history of returning cash to shareholders.
A MarketBeat summary of public filings and compiled data noted:
- a declared quarterly dividend of $2.30 per share (annualized $9.20)
- an indicated yield around the mid-2% range (depending on price) [25]
(As always, dividend yields fluctuate with the stock price, and dividend policy can change.)
On valuation, investor conversations this week have revolved around whether HD deserves a premium multiple while near-term growth remains muted—particularly as some analysts argue margins may be structurally pressured versus prior peaks. [26]
Risk factors to keep on the radar
Even for long-term investors, Home Depot stock faces several near- and mid-term risks:
- Housing turnover stays slow longer than expected
If mortgage rates and affordability keep homeowners “locked in,” big-ticket remodel cycles can remain subdued. [27] - DIY demand remains soft
Reuters noted weakening DIY demand and pressure on larger-ticket categories as drivers behind the conservative 2026 view. [28] - Tariffs and macro uncertainty
Reuters previously tied big-ticket hesitation to tariff-driven uncertainty and an uneven macro backdrop. [29] - Shrink and organized retail crime
On the operational side, Home Depot—like many large retailers—continues to contend with theft risks. New York officials announced indictments in a multi-state retail theft case involving Home Depot stores, underscoring that organized retail crime remains a real-world cost and safety issue for the sector. [30]
The setup for 2026: what could be catalysts (and what could disappoint)
Potential upside catalysts
- Improving housing activity that unlocks larger projects (kitchens, baths, flooring)
- Pro customer strength and continued market share gains as smaller competitors struggle
- Execution on delivery, digital tools, and supply chain that supports service levels and margins
- Operating leverage if the market turns toward the “recovery case” scenario [31]
What could disappoint
- A “longer-for-longer” period where comps stay flat and category growth is muted
- Price competition or mix shifts that pressure margins
- Integration complexity in the pro distribution network (even if strategically sound)
What to watch next: earnings date and upcoming milestones
Home Depot’s next major scheduled catalyst is its next earnings report. Zacks lists Home Depot’s next earnings report date as February 24, 2026. [32]
Investors will likely focus on:
- updated views on housing activity and big-ticket demand
- any early read-through on 2026 comps trajectory
- margins, shrink, and freight/fulfillment costs
- progress in Pro and distribution (including SRS/GMS integration)
Bottom line: Home Depot stock is shifting from “rate-cut rebound trade” to “share-gain + patience” story
As of December 12, 2025, the Home Depot stock narrative is less about a sharp near-term rebound and more about whether the company can keep comping steadily, take share, and hold margins in a sluggish demand environment—until housing and bigger-ticket projects return.
Management’s updated baseline for fiscal 2026 sets a deliberately attainable bar, while the “Market Recovery Case” outlines what the upside could look like if housing momentum returns. [33]
References
1. ir.homedepot.com, 2. ir.homedepot.com, 3. ir.homedepot.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.marketwatch.com, 7. ir.homedepot.com, 8. ir.homedepot.com, 9. ir.homedepot.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. ir.homedepot.com, 12. www.wsj.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.barrons.com, 15. www.investing.com, 16. www.tipranks.com, 17. www.tipranks.com, 18. www.tipranks.com, 19. www.nasdaq.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. ir.homedepot.com, 22. ir.homedepot.com, 23. ir.homedepot.com, 24. corporate.homedepot.com, 25. www.marketbeat.com, 26. www.investing.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.governor.ny.gov, 31. ir.homedepot.com, 32. www.zacks.com, 33. ir.homedepot.com
