NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 11:57 a.m. ET — Market closed
Home Depot stock is heading into Monday’s session with the broader market still in “year-end mode”—thin volumes, index milestones in view, and investors laser-focused on the interest-rate path that ultimately drives housing turnover and big-ticket renovation demand.
With U.S. markets closed for the weekend, the last actionable read for investors is Friday’s close: The Home Depot (NYSE: HD) finished at $349.78, up about 0.7%, after trading between roughly $346 and $350.
That modest gain came in a session where Wall Street itself barely budged. In the light, post-holiday trade, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all ended slightly lower, as traders talked about the market “catching its breath” during the seasonal “Santa Claus rally” window. [1]
Where HD stock stands heading into the next session
Home Depot enters the final days of 2025 near the mid-$300s, a level that has kept the stock in a “wait-and-see” posture as investors balance two competing narratives:
- Near-term caution: management has been clear that the housing and large-project backdrop has not fully turned. [2]
- Longer-term leverage: if housing activity reaccelerates, Home Depot believes it can convert that momentum into faster profit growth. [3]
After-hours trading following Friday’s close was essentially flat, underscoring how little incremental news hit the tape late in the week. [4]
The market backdrop: rates, Fed minutes, and year-end positioning
Home Depot is one of those consumer-facing names that can trade like a macro proxy: when rate expectations move, housing affordability, turnover, and financing-heavy projects often move with them.
That’s why the week ahead matters even without a Home Depot-specific headline.
Reuters’ week-ahead preview highlights three forces likely to shape the tape into year-end:
- The S&P 500 nearing 7,000: The benchmark has been within about 1% of the 7,000 level, as investors look to end 2025 on a high note. [5]
- Fed minutes in focus (Tuesday): Minutes from the Fed’s December meeting are expected to be a key macro catalyst, with investors trying to handicap how quickly rates could fall further in 2026. [6]
- Low liquidity can exaggerate moves: As Reuters notes, year-end portfolio adjustments can stir volatility—especially when trading volumes are light. [7]
Market strategists cited by Reuters struck an optimistic tone while still warning that volatility is part of the deal—comments that tend to matter for cyclical retailers and housing-adjacent stocks. [8]
Home Depot’s latest guidance: cautious base case, clear “recovery” upside
The most important fundamental anchor for HD right now isn’t something published this weekend—it’s the company’s December strategic update and preliminary fiscal 2026 outlook, delivered at its investor and analyst conference.
Fiscal 2025: reaffirmed guidance
Home Depot reaffirmed fiscal 2025 expectations including:
- Total sales growth ~3%, with GMS expected to contribute about $2 billion in incremental sales
- Comparable sales slightly positive (for the comparable 52-week period)
- Diluted EPS down ~6% (from fiscal 2024) and adjusted diluted EPS down ~5% [9]
Fiscal 2026: “flat-to-modest” in the base case
For fiscal 2026, Home Depot laid out a preliminary view that implies modest improvement but not a snap-back:
- Home improvement market: -1% to +1%
- Comparable sales: flat to +2%
- Total sales: +2.5% to +4.5%
- Operating margin: ~12.4% to 12.6%
- EPS: flat to +4% (including adjusted EPS) [10]
Reuters’ coverage of that outlook emphasized why the market has treated the story as “early innings” for any housing rebound. CFO Richard McPhail said the company had not yet seen a catalyst or inflection in housing activity, and Reuters noted guidance metrics that came in below analyst expectations at the time. [11]
The “Market Recovery Case”: what upside could look like
Home Depot also published a more bullish scenario tied to housing momentum and larger-project spending:
- Total sales growth: ~5% to 6%
- Comparable sales growth: ~4% to 5%
- Operating profit growth: faster than sales
- EPS growth: mid-to-high single digits [12]
In that framing, McPhail argued that housing pressures should correct over time and support faster home improvement growth than the broader economy. [13]
Analyst outlook: price targets imply upside, but recent trims show caution
While Home Depot’s tone has been measured, Wall Street’s longer-range posture remains broadly constructive:
- StockAnalysis lists a consensus “Buy” rating with an average price target of about $421 (roughly 20%+ above recent levels), with targets spanning $350 to $497. [14]
- Benzinga’s aggregation similarly shows a consensus price target around $424, with the same low/high range. [15]
What stands out in the most recent cluster of analyst actions is that several firms maintained positive ratings while trimming targets in December—consistent with a “good business, slower cycle” mindset:
- DA Davidson (Michael Baker): target $430 → $407 (maintains) [16]
- Wells Fargo (Zachary Fadem):$400 → $395 (maintains) [17]
- Piper Sandler (Peter Keith):$450 → $441 (maintains) [18]
- UBS (Michael Lasser):$445 → $430 (maintains) [19]
- RBC Capital (Steven Shemesh):$376 → $366 (maintains “Hold”) [20]
Separately, Reuters reported that TD Cowen analysts viewed the company’s initial 2026 framework as a reasonable starting point that could set up a recovery if housing momentum returns. [21]
Strategy watch: Pro growth, acquisition integration, and AI as a “quiet” lever
Beyond rates, investors continue to debate what Home Depot can control in a soft-ish demand environment:
“Win the Pro” and execution
CEO Ted Decker reiterated that Home Depot is focused on growing sales and shareholder returns and sees opportunity to take share in a large total addressable market. [22]
GMS contribution and integration
Both Home Depot and market coverage have pointed to GMS as a meaningful sales contributor in fiscal 2025—part of the reason total sales growth is expected around 3% even as core demand remains uneven. [23]
AI: practical tools, not just headlines
A Nasdaq analysis of the Home Depot–Lowe’s tech race frames HD’s approach as execution-first—embedding AI in customer help and operations. It cites Home Depot’s generative AI tools (including “Magic Apron”) and AI-enabled workflow products like Blueprint Takeoffs as part of a broader push to support complex projects, particularly for professionals. [24]
That matters for the stock because, in a slower demand cycle, investors often reward productivity and conversion improvements—the kind of benefits companies claim from AI-enabled customer service, fulfillment, and project-planning tools.
Insider filings: what’s newly visible going into Monday
Weekend reading often includes governance and insider paperwork—items that don’t always move the stock day-to-day but can shape sentiment.
Two recent SEC Form 4 filings disclosed transactions by Home Depot executives in mid-December:
- Ann Marie Campbell (Senior EVP): a sale of 145 shares at $358.26 (transaction date Dec. 11, 2025). [25]
- Angie Brown (EVP & CIO): a sale of 1,946 shares at a weighted average price of $357.63 (transaction date Dec. 12, 2025), following option exercises detailed in the filing. [26]
Investors typically view small executive sales in context—size relative to total holdings, whether sales are routine, and whether the company’s operating narrative is changing. The filings themselves are the primary record.
What investors should watch before Monday’s open
With the next regular session on deck, here are the practical signposts that could matter most for HD stock into early week trading:
- Rates narrative first, retail second: If the market reprices the path of 2026 cuts, housing-linked names can move quickly. Reuters flags Fed minutes as a key potential catalyst. [27]
- Expect “thin tape” dynamics: Year-end positioning and low volumes can amplify swings, even on modest news. [28]
- Watch for fresh analyst notes: The most recent widely-circulated cluster of Home Depot target updates was earlier in December; any new changes could reset near-term tone. [29]
- Keep the guidance framework handy: The market is still anchoring on Home Depot’s flat-to-2% 2026 comp outlook and the company’s “recovery case” scenario—and on management’s view that housing hasn’t hit a clear inflection yet. [30]
- Dividend baseline remains a support for many long-term holders: Home Depot’s board declared a $2.30 quarterly dividend (paid Dec. 18 to shareholders of record Dec. 4). [31]
Bottom line
As markets reopen, Home Depot stock is set up less as a “headline trade” and more as a referendum on the next step in the housing-and-rates cycle—with management projecting modest growth in 2026 unless housing activity and larger projects regain momentum, and Wall Street price targets still implying upside if that recovery materializes.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. ir.homedepot.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. ir.homedepot.com, 10. ir.homedepot.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. ir.homedepot.com, 13. ir.homedepot.com, 14. stockanalysis.com, 15. www.benzinga.com, 16. stockanalysis.com, 17. stockanalysis.com, 18. stockanalysis.com, 19. stockanalysis.com, 20. stockanalysis.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. ir.homedepot.com, 23. ir.homedepot.com, 24. www.nasdaq.com, 25. www.sec.gov, 26. www.sec.gov, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. stockanalysis.com, 30. ir.homedepot.com, 31. ir.homedepot.com
