NEW YORK, Dec. 27, 2025, 2:06 p.m. ET — Market closed
Home Depot, Inc. (The) stock is heading into the final trading days of 2025 with investors balancing a resilient year-end tape against the company’s own message that the housing-led “big project” cycle has yet to fully reaccelerate.
Shares of Home Depot (HD) finished Friday’s regular session at $349.78, up 0.70%. Yahoo Finance After-hours trading was essentially flat, with quotes hovering around $349.77 later Friday evening. MarketWatch With U.S. markets closed for the weekend, the next key moment for HD investors is Monday’s open, when year-end positioning and rate expectations can amplify stock-specific moves.
Where HD stands going into Monday
Friday’s price action kept HD in the middle of its recent range, with the stock opening at $346.99 and trading between $346.57 and $350.05. MarketWatch Market data also puts HD’s 52-week range at $326.31 to $426.75, underscoring how far the stock remains from earlier highs even after stabilizing near $350. MarketWatch
On a broader time frame, HD has been mixed: one market performance snapshot shows about -1.6% over the past 30 days and about -11.5% over the past 12 months (as of Friday). FinanceCharts
The market backdrop: thin holiday trade, but bullish “year-end” tone
Home Depot is entering Monday with the wider market still digesting a light, post-Christmas session. Reuters described Friday as a low-volume pause near record levels, with strategists pointing to seasonal dynamics like the “Santa Claus rally” period. Reuters
Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, told Reuters that after a strong multi-day run into the holiday, markets were “catching our breath,” while still viewing the seasonal window as having potential upside bias. Reuters
Looking ahead, Reuters’ “Week Ahead” report highlighted that investors are watching for the market to finish 2025 strong, with the S&P 500 near a major psychological milestone and policy expectations front and center. Reuters Paul Nolte of Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management told Reuters that momentum favored bulls absent a shock, while Glenmede’s Michael Reynolds pointed to next week’s catalysts—particularly Fed-related signals—as key for rate expectations. Reuters
That matters for Home Depot because rate expectations and housing turnover remain among the most important macro variables for demand in big-ticket categories (kitchens, baths, flooring, appliances) that typically lift when homeowners move, refinance, or borrow against equity.
The freshest HD headlines in the last 24–48 hours: institutional filings, not new operating news
Over the last 24–48 hours, the most visible Home Depot–specific headlines have been 13F/SEC filing write-ups pointing to position increases by several asset managers during the third quarter (a reminder: these filings are backward-looking and generally reflect holdings as of quarter-end, not real-time trading).
Among the updates published over the past day:
- Pacer Advisors reported increasing its HD position in Q3. MarketBeat
- Cwm LLC reported raising its HD stake in Q3. MarketBeat
- Swedbank AB was also cited as increasing its stake in Q3 filings. MarketBeat
- Global X Japan Co. Ltd. was cited in another filing-related update. MarketBeat
These types of stories rarely move HD on their own, but they can shape sentiment—especially when the market is thin and investors are searching for signals on “who owns what” into year-end.
The fundamental story investors are trading: steady “small project” demand, slower “big project” recovery
The core bull/bear debate around Home Depot remains tied to when the housing market—and homeowner willingness to finance major remodels—normalizes.
What Home Depot last reported (Q3 fiscal 2025)
In its most recent quarterly release, Home Depot reported third-quarter fiscal 2025 sales of $41.4 billion (+2.8% year over year) and comparable sales up 0.2%. Homedepot Management also flagged the role of weather: CEO Ted Decker said results missed expectations largely due to a lack of storms, while also pointing to consumer uncertainty and housing pressure impacting demand. Homedepot
Home Depot also updated fiscal 2025 guidance at that time, projecting about 3% total sales growth and an adjusted EPS decline of about 5% versus fiscal 2024, along with margin and capex targets. Homedepot
The 2026 setup: “pressures persist,” but the company is mapping multiple scenarios
At its December investor update, Home Depot laid out a preliminary fiscal 2026 view that investors continue to anchor on. In Reuters coverage, CFO Richard McPhail warned that pressures were expected to persist and that the company had not yet seen a clear catalyst for a housing inflection. Reuters
In the company’s own strategic update, Home Depot provided a preliminary framework that included:
- A view that the home improvement market could range from slightly down to slightly up,
- Comparable sales growth in a modest range, and
- Adjusted EPS potentially flat to up modestly, depending on conditions. Homedepot
That message is why HD can trade like a “rates-and-housing” proxy at times: investors are trying to time the point when demand transitions from repairs/maintenance to higher-margin discretionary projects.
Wall Street’s forecast: price targets still imply upside, but dispersion is wide
Analyst expectations remain constructive in aggregate, though the spread in targets reflects uncertainty about the housing trajectory and the timing of a volume recovery.
- One widely cited analyst snapshot lists high/median/low targets of $455 / $407 / $330. MarketWatch
- Filing-related summaries also point to a “Moderate Buy” style consensus and an average target around the low-$400s. MarketBeat
Investors should read that dispersion carefully: HD’s current level near $350 sits much closer to the low end than the high end, implying the market is still discounting a slower recovery scenario.
The macro variable that matters most: mortgage rates and home-price outlook
Home Depot’s biggest discretionary categories tend to improve when homeowners feel confident about affordability, equity, and financing.
Over the past week, U.S. mortgage rates have been relatively stable; an Associated Press housing update pegged the average 30-year fixed rate at about 6.18%. AP News
Looking into 2026, forecasts remain mixed on home-price appreciation. An Investopedia roundup cited:
- The National Association of Realtors projecting around 4% price gains, versus
- More conservative expectations from forecasters such as Fannie Mae (~1.3%) and Zillow (~1.2%). Investopedia
Separately, S&P Global Ratings’ housing outlook projected mortgage rates drifting lower in 2026 (while still emphasizing a slower home-price environment), a setup that—if it materializes—could gradually improve transaction activity and remodel confidence. S&P Global
For HD investors, the takeaway is straightforward: even small changes in rate direction can influence big-ticket demand, and the market often prices HD off the “next six months” of housing psychology rather than the last quarter.
Technical and positioning watch: what the tape is implying
Technical screens late Friday leaned constructive in the near term. One technical summary showed a “Strong Buy”-leaning composite with the RSI in the high-50s range—more bullish than oversold. Investing
That does not replace fundamentals, but it does help explain why HD can stay supported near round levels (like $350) even when the fundamental narrative is “waiting for housing.”
If you’re watching HD into the next session, here’s what matters most
With markets closed now and reopening Monday, the most important “next session” checklist for Home Depot stock looks like this:
- Year-end flow effects and thin liquidity
Reuters noted that portfolio adjustments into year-end, combined with lighter volumes, can exaggerate price moves. Reuters - Fed-path expectations and next week’s policy signals
Reuters also flagged that upcoming Fed-related information (including the release of meeting minutes) could shape the market’s rate narrative—critical for housing-sensitive names like HD. Reuters - Housing and financing tone
Mortgage-rate stability near the low-6% zone is helpful, but HD management has been clear that a broad “inflection” in housing activity is not yet obvious. Reuters - The next major HD catalyst: earnings timing
Several market calendars peg Home Depot’s next earnings report for late February 2026 (often listed around Feb. 24, 2026). Zacks
Until then, HD may trade more on macro data, peer read-throughs, and market positioning than on company-specific headlines.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
