New York, Jan 23, 2026, 12:40 PM EST — Regular session
Home Depot shares were up 0.6% at $383.15 in midday trading on Friday, as investors weighed a bullish note from UBS. The bank reiterated its Buy rating and $430 price target and said the retailer could see “outsized gains” when the home-improvement market recovers. 1
The timing matters because the next leg for Home Depot’s demand story still runs through housing and borrowing costs. Freddie Mac said the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.09% this week, a level that can keep homeowners cautious on big remodels. 2
Housing signals have been choppy. Contracts to buy previously owned U.S. homes fell 9.3% in December and the pending home sales index dropped to 71.8, the lowest since July, a Reuters report showed. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun called inventory the “lowest inventory level of 2025.” 3
Washington’s attempts to push rates lower have not convinced everyone. A Reuters analysis on Thursday said the administration’s plan to buy $200 billion of mortgage-backed bonds — securities backed by pools of home loans — has shown little evidence of easing housing costs so far. Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP, called it “mostly an exercise in burning cash.” 4
Home Depot itself has tied the cycle back to turnover and confidence. At a December investor event, CFO Richard McPhail said the company had “not yet seen a catalyst or an inflection in housing activity.” It projected fiscal 2026 same-store sales — sales at stores open at least a year — to range from flat to up 2%. 5
Rival Lowe’s shares were up 0.1% at $275.21. The pair has tended to trade with shifts in the housing and rates narrative, sometimes more than with day-to-day retail headlines.
Mortgage demand has shown flashes of life. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its index of mortgage applications rose 14.1% in the week ended Jan. 16 and refinancing climbed 20%. MBA’s deputy chief economist Joel Kan said refi activity reached the “strongest level of activity since September 2025.” 6
But the downside case is still easy to sketch. About 69% of U.S. homes with an outstanding mortgage have a fixed rate of 5% or lower, Realtor.com data cited by the Associated Press shows, which can keep owners “locked in” if new loans stay expensive. 7
The next housing readout is close. The National Association of Realtors is due to publish existing-home sales for January on Feb. 12 at 10 a.m. Eastern, a release that can shift sentiment on rate-sensitive consumer names. 8
For Home Depot, the next hard catalyst is its own quarterly print. The company’s investor relations calendar lists its Q4 2025 earnings release for Feb. 24 at 9 a.m. ET, when investors will look for updated guidance and management’s take on the spring selling season. 9
