New York, Jan 13, 2026, 12:17 PM EST — Regular session
- Home Depot shares slipped 0.1% by midday, while Lowe’s edged up roughly 0.8%
- U.S. consumer prices climbed in December, matching expectations and fueling speculation about the Fed’s upcoming decision
- Mortgage rates have slipped to their lowest point since late 2024, a crucial driver behind the surge in home-improvement demand
Home Depot shares slipped 0.1% to $374.52 on Tuesday, drifting between $370.92 and $378.49 as investors digested a mild U.S. inflation report and its implications for interest rates and housing. Lowe’s, by comparison, gained 0.8%.
Why it matters now: Home Depot’s sales usually follow housing turnover and major purchases tied to financing. Changes in rate expectations can sway these stocks, even without fresh company updates.
Mortgage rates remain a pressing concern. If they drop steadily, the “lock-in” effect—where homeowners stick with their current, cheaper mortgage—could fade. That shift might accelerate spending on repairs, remodels, and moving-related work.
Mortgage rates have fallen over the past few weeks, with the national average on a 30-year fixed mortgage hitting roughly 6.23% by midday Monday—the lowest level since early October 2024, according to Investopedia. 1
U.S. data Tuesday offered little incentive for bond markets to shift direction. The Consumer Price Index climbed 0.3% in December, marking a 2.7% increase from a year ago, according to the Labor Department. Meanwhile, the “core” CPI — which strips out food and energy — rose 0.2% monthly and 2.6% annually. 2
“The government shutdown has distorted the inflation data, complicating its interpretation, but the latest numbers indicate inflation has likely peaked,” said Michael Pearce, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. 2
Home Depot’s focus isn’t just on a single CPI figure, but on whether borrowing costs continue to decline as spring approaches. December inflation was largely pushed by food and shelter prices, Reuters noted, underscoring that easing may face bumps ahead. 2
Home Depot is urging investors to stay patient. Back in December, the company projected fiscal 2026 comparable sales — tracking stores open at least a year — to range from flat to a 2% increase. Adjusted earnings per share were expected to hold steady or climb up to 4%. CFO Richard McPhail expressed confidence that “the pressures in housing will correct.” 3
The housing-policy scene has stirred the pot. President Donald Trump’s move to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds earlier this month sparked debate among analysts over its impact on affordability. Brian Jacobsen, chief economic strategist at Annex Wealth Management, cautioned it might drive up demand without addressing the supply issue. 4
Here’s the risk for Home Depot bulls: mortgage rates might fall, and buyers could come back, but prices remain stubbornly high, keeping transactions low. Without a pickup in housing turnover, big-ticket remodel projects could stay sluggish, even if smaller repairs keep steady.
Traders have their eyes on the Federal Reserve’s meeting scheduled for Jan. 27-28, a crucial moment to gauge how long officials intend to keep interest rates steady. 5
Home Depot’s quarterly report on Feb. 24 is the next key event to watch. Investors want to see if demand for major projects has shifted, how the professional-contractor segment is performing, and whether lower mortgage rates are boosting store visits and average order values. 6
